FanDuel NBA: Tuesday Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Tuesday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

Tuesday night brings us another solid seven-game slate as the playoff races tighten up in both conferences. The injury report is relatively modest when it comes to big names as well, so roster construction shouldn't be overly challenging. Oddsmakers are also envisioning a night of competitive action, with four of the five games that have point spreads on the board as of early Tuesday all sporting single-digit lines.

Slate Overview

Here's a closer look at the three games that will likely carry the highest projected totals on FanDuel Sportsbook once they are released: 

Brooklyn Nets at Milwaukee Bucks 

The two teams combined for 231 points Sunday and 248 points in their earlier meeting, so this total will likely be in the high 230s/low 240s once it comes out. The Nets check in allowing an elevated, Eastern Conference-high 116.9 points per road game, while the Bucks are giving up 112.1 points per home contest. Except for James Harden, the key pieces for each team should be healthy for this game, and the fact both teams also rank in the top half of the league in pace only serves to up the chances of another offensive showcase.

Golden State Warriors at New Orleans Pelicans 

The two squads combined for 231 points in Monday's game, and the Pelicans had no answer for Stephen Curry or Draymond Green. The contest is a crucial one for the Pelicans, who essentially have zero margin for error when it comes to trying to garner a play-in spot. However, defense is particularly an issue for New Orleans, which has now giving up 114.0 points per home game after Monday night. The Warriors also came into that game allowing 114.5 per road contest, so despite the solid defensive effort in the first game, there's always the chance the Pels are more effective in the rematch with a bit of adjustment and better shooting from Lonzo Ball, who went just 3-for-18 from the field Monday. 

Sacramento Kings at Oklahoma City Thunder

The Kings are surrendering an NBA-high 118.8 points per game and average the 10th-most possessions per road game (103.5), so they already bring a couple of key ingredients for a high-scoring game to the table. Sacramento is also scoring 114.3 points per game, while the Thunder are yielding the third-most points per game (118.9) of any team on its home floor. The Kings will very likely be down three starters due to injury, but the two teams' defensive deficiencies here are significant enough to keep a relatively elevated total in play.    

Injury Situations to Monitor  

NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following serves as a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written, check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate. 

James Harden, BRO (hamstring)/ Status: OUT 

Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant should continue seeing elevated usage in Harden's ongoing absence, while Jeff Green should remain in the starting five.

Darius Garland, CLE (ankle)/ Status: OUT 

In Garland's absence, Cedi Osman should remain in the starting five, while Collin Sexton will continue as the primary ball handler. 

Tyrese Haliburton, SAC (knee)/ Status: OUT 

Haliburton being out should lead to Delon Wright running with the first unit. 

OG Anunoby, TOR (calf)/ Status: DOUBTFUL 

Anunoby's likely absence could lead to Stanley Johnson running with the first unit. 

Fred VanVleet, TOR (hip)/ Status: GTD 

If VanVleet misses another contest, Malachi Flynn should draw another start at shooting guard. 

Kristaps Porzingis, DAL (knee)/ Status: DOUBTFUL 

With Porzingis likely out again, Dwight Powell should draw another start at center.  

Harrison Barnes, SAC (groin)/ Status: DOUBTFUL 

With Barnes likely out for a fourth straight game, Marvin Bagley should draw another start at power forward. 

Other notable injuries: 

De'Aaron Fox, SAC (COVID-19 protocols)/ Status: OUT 

Kelly Oubre, GSW (wrist)/ Status: OUT 

Devonte' Graham, CAR (knee)/ Status: OUT 

Steven Adams, NOP (toe)/ Status: GTD 

Mason Plumlee, DET (rest)/ Status: GTD 

Jerami Grant, DET (knee)/ Status: GTD 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC (foot)/ Status: OUT 

Nickeil Alexander-Walker, NO (ankle)/ Status: OUT 

Bobby Portis, MIL (illness)/ Status: PROBABLE 

Gary Trent, TOR (lower leg)/ Status: DOUBTFUL 

Victor Oladipo, MIA (knee)/ Status: OUT 

Tyler Herro, MIA (foot)/ Status: OUT 

Gordon Hayward, CHA (foot)/ Status: OUT 

Chris Boucher, TOR (knee)/Status: OUT

Elite Players

We have three players with five-figure salaries on Sunday's slate: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,400), Luka Doncic ($10,900) and Kevin Durant ($10,300). 

Antetokounmpo eviscerated the Nets for 75.6 FD points Sunday, and he'll therefore be in an excellent position to offer another spectacular return on his salary. Doncic will once again take the floor without Kristaps Porzingis, and he already put up 53.5 FD points against the Heat back on New Year's Day. Durant was also impressive in Sunday's Nets-Bucks game, posting 55.0 FD points. He's scored over 50 in three of the last four overall, and he should once again have a strong chance of approaching 5x return on his salary. 

Healthy players with salaries in the high four figures capable of also delivering elite scores include Stephen Curry ($9,700), Jimmy Butler ($9,600), Zion Williamson ($9,600) and Kyrie Irving ($9,500). 

Curry just put up another spectacular performance Monday with 56.8 FD points, and he draws the same appealing matchup against the Pelicans on Tuesday. Butler should be in for heavy minutes in what could be a wire-to-wire battle against the Mavericks, while Williamson put up 45.1 FD points versus the Warriors on Monday. Irving has notably underwhelmed relative to salary over his last three games, including versus the Bucks on Sunday (39.4 FD points), so while he naturally has the ceiling to deliver an elite score any time he takes the floor, there's at least a doubt he'll be able to offer a return that justifies his salary.

Expected Chalk

In addition to the players just mentioned in the prior section, other likely chalk plays include:

Collin Sexton ($8,500) 

Sexton should continue serving as the primary ball handler with Garland out and should also be very popular coming off a 48.8 FD-point tally.

Devin Booker, PHO ($8,000) 

Booker scored 46.6 FD points against the Thunder last time out and draws an excellent positional matchup versus the Cavaliers.

Khris Middleton, MIL ($8,000) 

Middleton put up 54.2 FD points Sunday against the Nets and maintains a reasonable salary for that type of ceiling. 

Draymond Green, GSW ($7,600) 

Green hung 59.1 FD points on the Pelicans on Monday night and should therefore be very popular for the rematch.

Buddy Hield, SAC ($7,000) 

He should be in plenty of lineups with Tyrese Haliburton, De'Aaron Fox and Harrison Barnes all projected out. 

LaMelo Ball, CHA ($6,200) 

Ball has been productive in his first two games back from injury and he still carries a very reasonable salary.

Key Values 

LaMelo Ball, CHA at DET ($6,200)

Ball has scored 35.4 and 38.7 FD points in his first two games back from a wrist injury, logging 27 and 30 minutes in those contests while running with the first unit. Devonte' Graham will remain out for Charlotte on Tuesday, and Ball sports a 25.6 percent usage rate and averages 43.4 FD points per 36 minutes without his teammate on the floor. Ball put up that aforementioned 35.4 FD-point tally against these same Pistons in his first game back, and Detroit checks in allowing a robust 47.6 FD points per game to small forwards.

Saddiq Bey, DET vs. CHA ($6,200)

Bey's scenario is almost a mirror image of Ball's. The rookie wing carries the same salary and has a very favorable matchup on the other side of the Pistons-Hornets matchup. Bey lit up Charlotte for 49.9 FD points in Saturday night's game, and he followed that performance up with 42.3 FD points versus the Magic on Monday night. Bey has also been more involved offensively of late, averaging over 12 shots per game over his last 15 contests. The Hornets also come in allowing the third-highest offensive efficiency (24.9 percent) to small forwards, along with the third-most FD points per game (52.7) to the position over the last 10 contests.

Marvin Bagley, SAC at OKC ($5,500)

Bagley is slated to draw another start at power forward with Harrison Barnes due to miss Tuesday's game, and the young big man has scored 20.3 and 39.3 FD points in his first two games back from a hand injury. The latter came in a spot start against the Mavericks on Sunday, and the matchup against the Thunder is an outstanding one to exploit, especially at Bagley's current salary. The Thunder has been mostly powerless versus power forwards all season, allowing the second-highest offensive efficiency (27.2 percent) to fours, along with the fourth-most FD points per game (58.7) to the position. OKC is also yielding the fifth-most points in the paint per game (50.5) of any team on its home floor, enhancing Bagley's case.

Other value plays to consider: Terry Rozier, CHA at DET ($6,000); Luguentz Dort, OKC vs. SAC ($5,600); Jeff Green, BKN at MIL ($5,500); Tim Hardaway, DAL at MIA ($5,400); Delon Wright, SAC a OKC ($5,200)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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