This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
We slow down to a five-game slate for Saturday, thanks to some postponements. Let's get right to the action!
SLATE OVERVIEW
(odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change)
Games to Target in BOLD
Games to Fade in ITALIC
GSW @ CHA (+2) O/U: 230.5
MIA @ LAL (-3) O.U: 213
SAC @ CHI (+2.5) O/U: 232.5
PHO @ MEM (+3.5) O/U: 224.5
WAS @ POR (-3.5) O/U: 242
BACK-TO-BACK TEAMS: Warriors, Suns, Grizzlies, Bulls
INJURIES
CHA Devonte' Graham (knee) - DOUBTFUL
Your best shot for value here is Malik Monk ($4,400), but we'll discuss a higher-priced Hornet guard later in the article.
MIA Goran Dragic (ankle) - OUT
Tyler Herro ($6,300) appears to be churning out the best production in this spot, but Kendrick Nunn ($5,100) is still viable at this salary, and Duncan Robinson's ($4,400) long-range shot is heating up.
LAL LeBron James (ankle) - PROBABLE
LAL Anthony Davis (Achilles) - OUT
LAL Kyle Kuzma (back) - PROBABLE
LAL Dennis Schroder (COVID-19) - OUT
Alex Caruso ($3,900) is the best pivot for Schroder, and the same is true for Kuzma over Davis is Kuzma can play.
SAC Harrison Barnes (foot) - QUESTIONABLE
SAC Richaun Holmes (knee) - QUESTIONABLE
We saw Nemanja Bjelica's ($5,100) impact with Harrison Barnes out on Thursday, so it makes sense to go there again if Barnes sits. Holmes is a more likely scratch, and Marvin Bagley ($5,400) should once again be the go-to guy here.
CHI Lauri Markkanen (shoulder) -OUT
Wendell Carter ($5,800) is back and is performing on the cusp of 5x value. He isn't the worst play against the Kings, but the Bulls are licking their wounds after Joel Embiid put up almost 100 FP against them last night. Chicago is a risky play in general.
ELITE PLAYERS
There are only two 10k-plus players on the slate tonight, which means it'll be easier to spend up on this five-game slate. LeBron James ($10,500) and Stephen Curry ($10,000) are the chart-toppers, but Curry is a better play against Charlotte. Both the Lakers and the Heat play at a methodical pace, and while I don't doubt James' potential, there will be fewer overall opportunities to score.
Further down, Damian Lillard ($9,500) is a decent play against the Wizards in what should be a fast-paced affair, and that means Bradley Beal ($9,700) and Russell Westbrook ($9,200) will also benefit. At the elite level, attacking both sides of this game is likely the most productive option tonight. I don't think it's a great night for Zach LaVine ($9,500) due to Sacramento's slow pace, but he could be a contrarian call for GPPs in hopes that he beats value. Finally, the Heat duo of Jimmy Butler ($9,200) and Bam Adebayo ($8,800) are both coming off triple-double performances, and Bam may be the better play against a Laker squad without Anthony Davis. LeBron will almost certainly draw Butler on defense, so he may be in for a slight regression.
EXPECTED CHALK
LaMelo Ball, CHA ($7,800) vs. GS
No doubt about it, Ball will find a way to log a lot of minutes in this matchup, and he sets up well as the Warriors make an east-coast swing. The Hornets were also afforded a lot of rest this week due to postponed games that were not their fault. Ball is on a spectacular four-game run, averaging 19.5 points, eight rebounds and 6.5 assists over that span. There is a small chance that contact tracing might cause a cancellation here, but right now, that doesn't seem to be the case. I also like Terry Rozier ($7,000) here for a bit less cash.
Chris Paul, PHO ($7,800) @ MEM
Paul dropped a whopping 19 dimes on the Pelicans last night, and his five-game run after a one-game absence has been nothing short of stellar. Over that span, he's averaged 20.4 points, 10.4 assists and five rebounds. I don't expect the back-to-back to slow him down.
Deandre Ayton, PHO ($6,600) @ MEM
The Grizzlies and the Suns are on back-to-backs, and Ayton had one of his best games of the season against the Grizzlies (18 points, 16 rebounds), although he achieved that without Jonas Valanciunas on the floor. Regardless, I think a gassed Grizzlies team has a good chance of producing the same effect for Ayton, who's been especially hot off the glass. He snagged 16 boards against the Pelicans last night. Ayton also seems largely immune to back-to-back play, as he's played well in most of the tail-end games this season.
Kelly Oubre, GS ($6,600) @ CHA
It's hard to dispute Oubre's red-hot production over his past two games. Against Orlando and Miami, he averaged 24,5 points, 7.5 rebounds and a whopping 3.5 steals per game. The small-ball approach is certainly serving Oubre well.
Also consider: Ja Morant, MEM ($7,400) vs. PHO
VALUE PLAYS
There are a few great value plays in the injury section, but here are four more excellent cheaper targets tonight.
Enes Kanter, POR ($6,200) vs. WAS
The Wizards' struggles under the basket are well-documented by now, and their motley crew of big men shouldn't be a difficult test for Kanter. Although he had a slight regression against the Pelicans a few nights ago, he's played well against centers like Embiid, Horford and Porzingis over the past couple of weeks, and he really doesn't need to do much to break 5x value at this salary. A double-double should achieve that goal, and he's reaching that milestone about 50 percent of the time.
Coby White, CHI ($5,600) vs. SAC
White is one of those guards who needs the right matchup to go off, and he did just that against the Kings in their first meeting when he exploded for 36 points. White already plays for the fastest-paced team in the league, and he'll be eager to bounce back after a demoralizing loss to Philly. I said to avoid Chicago, but White only played 27 minutes in the loss, so he should be better-rested than most of his teammates.
Gary Trent, POR ($5,500) vs. WAS
I continue to hammer this home game for Portland due to its high Over/Under. Trent's been exceedingly solid as he fills in for CJ McCollum and has the ability to pivot over to the wing when he's needed. A key to solid production for Trent is a humming three-point stroke, and the Wizards currently allow an average of 4.6 three-pointers versus opposing shooting guards.
Jae Crowder, PHO ($4,800) @ MEM
Crowder managed to creep his way back into Phoenix's rotation once again, and he may be used a bit more in this back-to-back. Since returning, he's played well in relation to his salary point, averaging 12.2 points and 7.2 rebounds over five games played. It's averaged out to about 30 FP per game, which is good for over 7x value. Those are the kind of value multipliers we love to see, regardless of the format.
