This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
SLATE OVERVIEW
There are three games on the slate with a 230+ over/under. Portland at Sacramento boasts a wild 237.5 total, where the Trail Blazers, favored by 5.5 points, have the highest expected score (121.5) on the slate. San Antonio at Minnesota boasts a 234.0 total, and the Spurs are 5-point favorites. Finally, Miami and Washington checks in with a 230.0 total, and the Heat are 7-point favorites.
The two other single teams on the slate expected to score at least 115 points are the Bucks (117.25) against the Cavaliers, the Hawks (116.25) against the Hornets. The Bucks game is expected to be a blowout, as they are 13-point favorites against the Cavs.
INJURIES TO MONITOR
Karl-Anthony Towns (wrist) is questionable to make his return against the Spurs after being out since the third game of the season. If he plays, most of Naz Reid's value is diminished.
Russell Westbrook (quadriceps) is questionable on the second night of a back-to-back. If he sits, Raul Neto, Ish Smith and Bradley Beal get bumps in usage.
Collin Sexton (ankle) is questionable but didn't participate in morning shootaround. Without him or Darius Garland (shoulder) during Thursday's game, the following players all saw at least 35 minutes: Damyean Dotson, Larry Nance, Andre Drummond, Cedi Osman, Isaac Okoro.
ELITE PLAYERS ($10,000+)
Luka Doncic ($11,000) vs. ORL
If Orlando is known for one thing, it's slow pace and defense. So, even though this is a great opportunity for the Mavericks to rack up a win, it might not be a perfect scenario for Doncic to maximize his value. Orlando allows just 108.9 points per game.
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,800) vs. CLE
The Bucks are favored by 13 points here, so there's a strong chance Antetokounmpo sees under 30 minutes while the reserves cut through the Cavaliers' defense. Bobby Portis ($5,400) -- a high-usage bench player for the Bucks -- might be a better option here.
Russell Westbrook ($10,000) vs. MIA
Westbrook is questionable with a quad injury and hasn't played back-to-backs lately, so this is a rough spot to roster him while potentially going up against a great Miami defense. If Westbrook is out, Bradley Beal ($9,700) becomes an elite alternative. Still, the Heat's defense is a concern.
EXPECTED CHALK
If Westbrook sits, Bradley Beal will be in plenty of lineups. And if Sexton sits again, any of the aforementioned Cavaliers players who saw at least 35 minutes last time could be relatively popular.
Damian Lillard ($9,500) will be popular against a Kings defense that allows the third-most points per game in the NBA. He's hit at least 50 fantasy points in three of his eight appearances.
On the other side of the aforementioned matchup, De'Aaron Fox ($8,300) has the opportunity to shine. He saw limited minutes in the Kings' previous game due to a hamstring injury but could be back to full strength here. Portland gives up the fifth-most points in the league, and Fox has scored 40+ fantasy points in five of his nine games.
DeMar DeRozan ($7,800) is going up the Timberwolves, who give up the second-most points in the league. He's racked up at least 40 fantasy points in five of his eight appearances.
VALUE PICKS
Dallas is dealing with a myriad of COVID-19-related absences, so there will be value to be had there, despite a less-than-ideal matchup against the slow-paced, defensive-minded Magic. Tim Hardaway ($5,900) and Trey Burke ($3,000) aren't shy about shooting the ball, and finding alternative offense outside of Doncic won't be easy today.
Finally cracking the 30-minute threshold, LaMarcus Aldridge ($6,300) has a salary that's too low given his upside against the struggling Timberwolves. He's averaging about a fantasy point per minute and hasn't scored fewer than 26 fantasy points in any game that he's seen at least 25 minutes in.
Jusuf Nurkic ($6,500) has seemed to finally find his stride, and he's going up against the matador defense of the Kings. He's averaging 31.2 fantasy points in 24.7 minutes over the past three games and has racked up at least 35 fantasy points twice this season. This salary is the second-cheapest we've seen him all season, so there's value to be had.
