One Big Fantasy Question for All 30 Teams: Southwest Division

This article is part of our NBA Draft Kit series.

The 2020-21 NBA off-season keeps moving forward.  Just when you think it's setting down, Houston and Washington swap mega-stars.  As hopefully you've seen by now, we're answering One Big Fantasy Question for every NBA squad.  This is our Southwest Division break down.  Here are links to our Atlantic, Central and Southeast editions.

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavs didn't make too many moves this off-season. They traded Seth Curry to Philly for Josh Richardson and a pick. Dallas also drafted Josh Green (18th) and Tyrell Terry (31st). 

How healthy is Kristaps Porzingis?

This is particularly interesting considering we're looking at a (hopefully) 72-game season. With fewer games, injury absences are that much more damning. We already know Porzingis won't play on Opening Night. Even if he returns around the second week of January, that would mean he's already missing 11% of the season. Now let's assume he doesn't play in the second of back-to-backs – that's another roughly 10 games missed. So no we're looking at hopefully playing in 75% of the season (roughly 54 games). RotoWire is predicting 49 total games. If your league allows for daily transactions, you can fill his spot somewhat easily. But in other leagues, the 25-year-old will make for some very frustrating week-to-week decisions.

I wish I could tell you exactly when Porzingis will return to full health, but that's impossible. Jeff Stotts has more on the details of Porzingis' injury here. Remember, Porzingis has a thick injury file. He missed all of the 2018-19 season due to a torn ACL he suffered in February of 2018. In his two "healthy" seasons, as a rookie and sophomore with the Knicks, Porzingis still only averaged 69 games a year. Someone will reach early for Kristaps this December. They only way I grab him is if he falls to the fourth round.

Bonus question: What should we expect from former fantasy darling Josh Richardson?

Houston Rockets

I could write a whole column or two on questions facing the Rockets. Will James Harden sulk all season or somehow force a trade? How healthy is John Wall? Will they stick with the small ball plan from last year or return to a more traditional offense? If Wall gets hurt, who joins Harden in the starting lineup? If P.J. Tucker continues to qualify at center, is he worth a draft pick? You get the idea.

What's going on with James Harden is Houston's "One Big Question". But, honestly, I can't shed any light on that situation. I'm not sure anyone can. So instead, let's try to be optimistic and examine the frontcourt:

What can we expect from Christian Wood and DeMarcus Cousins?

Many fantasy gurus are enamored with Christian Wood's upside. Yet talentless Detroit decided to let him leave in free agency, which I find very interesting. The Pistons certainly had money to spend, yet let a guy who averaged 18 points, eight rebounds, 1.1 blocks and 0.9 steals over his last 27 games walk right out the door. Interesting.

Boogie Cousins is a four-time All-Star and a two-time All-NBA member. I mention this because it's been a while since we've seen him play: before missing all of 2019-20, Cousins played in only 78 games over 2017-18 and 2018-19. In 48 games with the Pelicans in 2017-18, Cousins averaged 25.2 points, 12.9 boards, 1.6 blocks and 2.2 three pointers. That's dominant. But since those numbers he's had an Achilles tear, a quad tear and a torn ACL. Does he have anything left?

You may recall that Houston ended the season with P.J. Tucker as its center as part of their small ball experiment. The experiment failed, partly due to Russell Westbrook's playoff injury woes. But I assume new coach Stephen Silas will want to run his own system, which probably marks a return to something traditional. At 6-foot-10, Wood can certainly play the five in today's NBA. He played plenty of center for Detroit. Wood averaged put up those gaudy numbers at the end of the season by playing 27.5 minutes per contest. Those same minutes, if not more, are available in Houston, though he'll have to learn pick-and-roll with Harden to see close to the same amount of shots. Since Houston has Wood on a three-year deal, the money says Wood should play and play a lot. 

RotoWire ranks Wood at #47 overall (8-category leagues) with DeMarcus in free agency land at #147. Wood's ranking includes 19.0 points and a team-leading 8.8 rebounds per game. Those points (and shots) are at risk if John Wall somehow stays healthy. Personally, I rank Wood in the late-50's, based on Detroit letting him go and Wall possibly staying healthy. For Cousins, he's a huge name, but you gotta layoff unless you are playing in a super-deep league. Boogie is on a one-year deal. They need to develop talent, not showcase Cousins. A finish at #147 seems optimistic.

We discussed Boogie and Wood during last Friday's podcast:

Memphis Grizzlies

Virtually nothing has changed with the Grizzlies roster. The approach for the Grizzlies is simple:  help the young talent already on the roster to further develop and challenge for a playoff spot. Part of that plan was put on hold last year, as Jaren Jackson once again suffered a major, season-ending injury. The 21-year-old power forward has played only 115 games over his first two season in the league. Which begs the question:

Will Jaren Jackson or Brandon Clarke have a better 2020-21 season?

Jackson is not expected to return from his torn meniscus until late January. And one assumes that Memphis will bring him back gently, with some sort of load management plan. Yet a healthy Brandon Clarke has an ADP in mid-90's and Jackson's ADP is in the mid-70's. That's crazy. Look at both players' 2019-20 Per 36 Minutes stats:

Jackson: 22.0 pts, 5.8 reb, 1.7 ast, 0.9 stl, 2.0 blk, 3.2 3PM, 46.9 FG%, 74.7 FT%

Clarke: 19.7 pts, 9.6 reb, 2.2 ast, 0.9 stl, 1.3 blk, 0.6 3PM, 61.8 FG%, 75.9 FT%

Sure, Jackson gets more threes and blocks, but Clarke rebounds and is more efficient. I'd rather have 65-70 games of Clarke than 50-55 games from Jackson. RotoWire has both players seeing 29-30 minutes per game. Clarke could be the classic sophomore sleeper this season. I'm taking Clarke in the early 90's, ideally, and letting someone else invest in Jackson.

New Orleans Pelicans

I'm really interested in what Eric Bledsoe will do in New Orleans. Of course, that's something a hoops dork like me would say. In reality, all eyes are on the power forward position where the number one pick from the 2019 NBA Draft wants to assert his dominance.

What can we expect from Zion Williamson in Year 2?

The hype on Zion had whipped into full frenzy last off-season before Williamson tore his meniscus in the pre-season. When he did play, starting in January, Williamson flashed moments of brilliance. But bad free throw shooting, infrequent three-point attempts and low steals and blocks kept his fantasy value low.

The Duke product ranked only 91st in per-game production last year for 8-category leagues. It's possible his free throw shooting will make a leap. But he shot 64% from the charity stripe during his one year at Duke, and he again shot 64% as a rookie. This seems like a pattern. I'd say it's more likely we see a boost in steals and blocks. As a Blue Devil, Zion averaged 3.9 steals-and-blocks per game. That figure makes his 1.1 "stocks" last season look like an anomaly. RotoWire ranks Williamson at 75th this upcoming season for 8-category leagues. I agree with that assignment. For the next few years, he'll always be a bigger name than his fantasy production dictates. Let some other fan-boy grab him.

San Antonio Spurs

Not much has changed in San Antonio. The Spurs lost Bryn Forbes to Milwaukee via free agency. And with the 11th pick in the 2020 Draft, they drafted 20-year-old forward Devin Vassell, who seems stuck behind DeMar DeRozan, LaMarcus Aldridge and Rudy Gay on the depth chart. Forbes' departure does free up minutes in the backcourt, leading us to ponder…

Will Dejounte Murray continue to improve?

The 24-year-old Murray has been a favorite of the analyst crowd for a few years now. Last year, in his third season, he made the fantasy leap from a #121 ranking in 2018-19 to a #61 ranking last season (8-category leagues). Last year's 1.7 steals and 0.6 triples per game with both were very pleasant improvements. That #61 ranking also came from only 25.6 minutes per contest.

If San Antonio has any hopes of improving on last year's 32-39 season, they need their up-and-coming point guard to shine. San Antonio didn't make any effort to replace Forbes and his 25.1 minutes per game. Presumably, a healthy chunk of those minutes are going to Murray and 21-year-old Lonnie Walker. RotoWire is projecting a four minute per game increase for Murray (to 29.5) and I agree. In fact, north of 30 minutes is certainly possible. Murray's shooting has also consistently improved through all three of his NBA season. He could easily net out 46.5 FG% and 81.0 FT% in 2020-21 while attempting two to three more shots per game. Murray has a soft ADP in the early 70's. You should feel great about getting him in the early 60's.

Read more:

 ATLANTIC

CENTRAL

SOUTHEAST