NBA Draft Kit: 2020-21 Small Forward Tiers

Separating players into tiers is a popular method of draft prep, and it de-emphasizes the idea that you must draft a player because his projections come out slightly more favorably than those of another player. Often, the difference between a player ranked, say, 30th, and a player ranked 45th is smaller than you think.

Tiers help account for those discrepancies by grouping together players with similar risk/reward profiles, empowering the fantasy manager to choose for themselves. Tiers are also a great way to stay organized and disciplined while drafting. The default queue is a good place to start, but tiers add a personal touch and allow for more precise roster management as a draft plays out.

Some notes on methodology:

• Tiers take into account players with top-120 upside. Essentially, players that could reasonably come off the board in a standard draft.
• Players within tiers are not ranked in a specific order. Ideally, everyone in a tier has an argument to be taken over anyone else in that tier.
• Plenty of players are multi-position eligible, but to avoid confusion and redundancy, each player only appears at what we assume to be their primary position
• Tiers are based on 8-category, rotisserie scoring

Tier 1: Elite Superstars

Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics

Tatum had a breakout 2019-20 campaign -- his third season in the league. His strong season resulted in his first All-Star appearance, and he was selected to the All-NBA Third Team. Heading into the 2020-21 season, Tatum figures to be the No. 1 option on the Celtics as he emerges into stardom, especially with the departure of Gordon Hayward to Charlotte.

Kawhi Leonard, Los Angeles Clippers

Leonard had a strong campaign during his first year with the Clippers alongside Paul George,  setting career highs in scoring (27.1 points per game), free-throw efficiency (88.6 percent) and passing (4.9 assists per game). That resulted in selections to the All-NBA Second Team and All-Defensive Second Team. When considering drafting Leonard, keep in mind that his load management regiment will likely cap his total production despite the elite per-game numbers.

Paul George, Los Angeles Clippers

After a brief two-year stint with the Thunder, George joined forces with Kawhi Leonard and the Clippers in 2019-20. He took on a reduced role compared to his borderline-MVP campaign the year prior, seeing about seven fewer minutes per game. George also missed 24 games between pre-season double shoulder surgery and a hamstring injury in January. Much of George's fantasy potential for this season hinges on if new coach Tyronn Lue will return George to his usual 30-plus minute workload.

Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat

Butler put together an excellent campaign as the Heat's No. 1 option, though injuries remained an issue for Butler, as he missed 15 games during the regular season and has played more than 70 games just twice in his nine-year career. Butler's real-life stock is as high as ever after leading Miami to the NBA Finals against the Lakers and forcing six games, but from a fantasy perspective, it would be surprising if we saw the 31-year-old make any legitimate strides in his game. If anything, he might cede some responsibilities to the developing young core around him.

Tier 2: High-Level Starters

Brandon Ingram, New Orleans Pelicans

Ingram had a breakout 2019-20 season -- his fourth year in the league and first campaign with the Pelicans. The result was his first All-Star selection at just 22 years old. Ingram's leap practically won some fantasy managers their leagues, as he was outside of the top-150 the year prior on a per-game basis, jumping to a rank of 22 in eight-category leagues. Even though Ingram's stats took a slight dip after Zion Williamson debuted, the former will remain a key piece of New Orleans' rebuild going forward, and he's still young enough to continue making real strides to his game, especially as a playmaker and defender.

Gordon Hayward, Charlotte Hornets

After three seasons in Boston, Hayward will find himself in Charlotte after signing a massive contract with the Hornets. After being the third or fourth option at times on the Celtics, Hayward now goes to a team where he'll be the clear-cut best player. That makes it possible for Hayward to return to the kind of production that made him an All-Star in the tough Western Conference during the 2016-17 campaign. Health and age are a concern since Hayward missed 32 games last season between the regular season and playoffs, but he'll unquestionably be in position to have one of his best seasons if he can remain on the court.

Robert Covington, Portland Trail Blazers

After playing for the Timberwolves and Rockets last season, Covington will be on another new team to start the 2020-21 season, as he was dealt from the Rockets to the Trail Blazers during the offseason. Covington figures to be Portland's starting small forward, so he should occupy a role similar to what he's seen as of late. Over the past four seasons, Covington has ranked between 25th and 46th in fantasy on a per-game basis.

Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks

Middleton had another strong season in Milwaukee, almost putting together a 50/40/90 shooting season. He averaged a career-high 20.9 points, a career-high 6.2 rebounds, 4.3 assists and a career-high 2.4 threes in 29.9 minutes. Heading into the 2020-21 season, Middleton's role should be safe as the Bucks' clear No. 2 option behind Antetokounmpo, though the Bucks did make a move to add Jrue Holiday, who could take some ball-handling responsibilities away from Middleton.

Tier 3: Solid Starters

Michael Porter Jr., Denver Nuggets

Porter made his much-anticipated NBA debut last season, and while his overall stats were modest in 16.4 minutes per game, his upside showed through when he was given extended run. In the nine games (regular season and playoffs) that he saw 30-plus minutes, the forward averaged 23.1 points (55/51/94 shooting splits), 9.9 rebounds, 1.3 assists and 1.7 combined blocks-plus-steals. Heading into 2020-21, he's expected to start at forward for the Nuggets after both Jerami Grant and Mason Plumlee left in free agency. Fantasy managers need to keep in mind Porter's injury history dating back to high school, but he could be in store for a breakout sophomore campaign.

T.J. Warren, Indiana Pacers

Warren took well to his new home in 2020, as his first season with the Pacers proved to be a success, with the sixth-year wing posted the highest scoring total of his career (19.8). Warren really found his groove in Bubble play, as he kicked off the festivities with a 53-point eruption and at least 32 points in three of his next four games. With Victor Oladipo out of the lineup for most of the season and Malcolm Brogdon in and out as well, Warren had the advantage of increased usage, though that's likely to take a hit in 2020-21.

Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics

Last season, Brown delivered career highs in points (20.3), rebounds (6.4), assists (2.1) and threes (2.3) per game. Brown's game will have an opportunity to continue growing in his fifth NBA season with Gordon Hayward departing for Charlotte, not to mention Kemba Walker's persisting knee issues. The biggest steps for Brown to take will be improving his free-throw shooting (73.2%) and playmaking.

Kelly Oubre, Golden State Warriors

In his first full year with Phoenix, Oubre put up career-high numbers across the board. For this upcoming season, Oubre should again have a significant role -- this time on the Warriors. Following the news that Klay Thompson suffered a season-ending Achilles tear, Golden State traded a protected first-round pick for Oubre. He figures to start on the wing next to Andrew Wiggins and should see plenty of action, as the Warriors' bench remains desperately thin.

OG Anunoby, Toronto Raptors

Anunoby had a career year last season, and he could see his offensive profile continue to rise in the 2020-21 season with the departure of both Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol. He should start at small forward and is likely to crack the 30-minute-per-game threshold.  When seeing at least 30 minutes last season, regular season and playoffs, Anunoby averaged 13.0 points, 6.6 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.7 threes and 2.4 combined steals-plus-blocks.

Tier 4: Lower-Level Starters

Obi Toppin, New York Knicks

The 22-year-old was considered by some to be a potential top-five selection, but the Knicks were able to grab him with the No. 8 pick in the 2020 Draft. Toppin finished his career at Dayton as a redshirt sophomore and averaged 20.0 points, 7.5 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.0 steals and 1.2 blocks while shooting 63.3 percent overall and 39.0 percent on three-point attempts. He's expected to start at small forward for New York.

Mikal Bridges, Phoenix Suns

Bridges continued to serve as a formidable defensive presence while improving in several other categories during the 2019-20 season, and he's now primed for a starting small forward role in the wake of the mega-trade between the Suns and Thunder that saw Kelly Oubre go to Oklahoma City and Chris Paul come to Phoenix. Bridges was able to unwittingly prep for such responsibility when Oubre missed the last 15 games of last season with a knee injury, posting averages of 13.3 points (on 51.7 percent shooting, including 41.4 percent from three-point range), 4.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1.1 steals across 36.5 minutes over that span.

Bojan Bogdanovic, Utah Jazz

Last season, Bogdanovic averaged career highs with 20.2 points, 4.1 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 3.0 threes. Bogdanovic is a dead-eye from three-point range, as he's eclipsed 40 percent from deep in each of the past three years (41.4 last season). The hot shooting should continue to be effective on a team with several playmakers -- notably Donovan Mitchell, Mike Conley and Joe Ingles.

Evan Fournier, Orlando Magic

In 31.5 minutes last season, Fournier averaged 18.5 points, 3.2 assists, 2.6 threes, 2.6 rebounds and 1.1 steals, which led to his best per-game fantasy ranking (63) of his career. For 2020-21, Fournier will be back with the Magic for his seventh season with the team. Fournier's role this season should be nearly identical to his role last season, so aside from some normal variance, we should expect him to put up roughly the same numbers.

Otto Porter, Chicago Bulls

It was a lost season for Porter in his first full year with the Bulls. Due to a left foot injury that lingered throughout the season, he appeared in a career-low 14 contests. Even while on the court, Porter's production declined. If he can stay on the court in 2020-21, he has a chance to bounce back. Over the past three seasons as a whole, he's averaging 14.2 points, 5.8 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.8 threes and 1.9 combined steals-plus-blocks in 30.2 minutes.

Tier 5: Late-Round Targets

Will Barton, Denver Nuggets

Joe Ingles, Utah Jazz

Danuel House, Houston Rockets

Miles Bridges, Charlotte Hornets

Jae Crowder, Phoenix Suns

Matisse Thybulle, Philadelphia 76ers