This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
We have a heavy 10-game slate on tap tonight. Let's first look an overview of games via DraftKings Sportsbook.
CHA (-3.5) vs. GS, O/U: 209.5
MIL (-7.5) @ DET, O/U: 224.5
PHO (-0.5) @ ORL, O/U 215.5
BKN (-2) @ ATL, O/U: 223
BOS (-6.5) vs. MIA, O/U: 211
IND (-1) @ OKC, O/U: 210.5
CHI (-6) vs. MEM, O/U: 219
DAL (-4) vs. MIN, O/U: 229.5
UTA (-3) vs. LAL, O/U: 209
POR (-3.5) vs. SAC, O/U: 218.5
Even though the GS/CHA over/under is low, I'm banking on Charlotte to seal up a decisive win against the Warriors, and I found myself leaning in that direction. I think the MIN/DAL, BKN/ATL and CHI/MEM games have interesting targets as well. Conversely, I didn't see much exposure to the SAC/POR or the LAL/UTA game.
INJURY SITUATIONS TO MONITOR
Jonas Valanciunas (illness) OUT
The center has missed two games due to this illness, and there's currently no new information about his condition. Jaren Jackson ($6,800), who is a top add for me for multiple reasons, is seeing the biggest points boost in Valanciunas' absence.
Ja Morant (back) OUT
While this is an ongoing injury, recent numbers indicate that De'Anthony Melton ($4,600) is emerging as a better option over Tyus Jones as Morant's placeholder, and is definitely worth considering this evening.
Ricky Rubio (hand) QUESTIONABLE
Little is known about Rubio's status currently, but obviously, you should expect elite Devin Booker ($8,000) to shoulder a larger load, but a pivot for the point guard position is tenuous, at best. Ty Jerome ($3,200) is a high-variance pivot in this scenario.
Marcus Smart (oblique) DOUBTFUL
Brad Wanamaker ($4,100) is your budget pivot in this spot, but expect Jaylen Brown ($7,000) to build on his excellent 41.25 DKFP performance three days ago against the Knicks.
Goran Dragic (groin) OUT
Dragic's injury woes now slide into the current season, which is bad news for those who drafted him on the cheap. The reliable pivots in Dragic's absence are Kendrick Nunn ($5,200) and Justise Winslow ($5,300).
Mike Conley (hamstring) OUT
Conley's a disappointment and the Jazz must be wishing they had Ricky Rubio back based on his performance. Of all the available candidates, I feel like this a great chance for Emmanuel Mudiay ($3,200) to show us what he's got.
ELITE PLAYERS
Luka Doncic, DAL ($11,600) vs. MIN
I favor Doncic over Giannis as the best high-priced guy based on a number of factors. Doncic is at home where he fares just a bit better and the speedy 229.5 projection should avail Doncic of a few more possessions than usual.
Trae Young, ATL ($10,400) vs. BKN
Despite scoring 24 points against Golden State, the DKFP number was ultimately lower than expected due to a lack of contribution in ancillary categories. People could end up fleeing from Young based on the lackluster performance, but I believe Young should have better luck against Brooklyn's defense, which ranks 25th against opposing point guards.
While LeBron James and Anthony Davis are nightly threats, I'm electing to limit my exposure to the Lakers in what's expected to be a lower-scoring affair against the Jazz.
EXPECTED CHALK AND OTHER TARGETS
Domantas Sabonis, IND ($8,300) @ OKC
One would historically look at Sabonis next to this salary and move on, but that's no longer the case. The center is now on a run of five straight double-doubles, and his DKFP average over the past six games is at a solid 40 DKFP. While that number would only yield 4.8x value, recent history suggests he has the ability to land well north of that total in the right situation. Against the Thunder, who rank 30th in total rebound percentage, this game should fall soundly in Sabonis' wheelhouse.
Zach LaVine, CHI ($8,000) vs. MEM
We'd be wise to add LaVine based on the white-hot run he's been on recently. Over the past six games, the forward has averaged 29.0 points, 3.3 rebounds and 3.3 assists. He's also shooting a brilliant 52.3 percent from beyond the arc. LaVine has been part of a DraftKings perfect lineup three times over the past 30 days, and in this matchup against Memphis, he could easily show up there again.
Devonte' Graham, CHA ($7,700) vs. GS
Graham's early four-point, eight-rebound performance against the Warriors occurred long before Graham really got going, and he now gets a chance to revisit this matchup without D'Angelo Russell and Stephen Curry to provide interference. We need a score above 40 DKFP to reach value, and against this weak opponent, Graham has a good chance to get there.
Khris Middleton, MIL ($6,100) @ DET
Middleton's 32 DKFP game against the Knicks is proof positive that Middleton is on his way back, and his potential for solid production makes him a great bargain at this price. Middleton will be back up above 7k within the month barring any injury setbacks, but at this level, his usually reliable floor is worth the risk.
VALUE PLAYS
Joe Harris, BKN ($5,700) @ ATL
While Spencer Dinwiddie is the most obvious pivot in Kyrie Irving's absence, it's time to start paying attention to Harris and his potentially low ownership. Harris' last six games present some impressive averages. He's put together 18.7 points, 4.3 rebounds, and a scintillating 46.9 three-point conversion rate over that span. He wasn't shy about heaving it from long range, either, averaging 8.2 attempts over the last six games.
Tim Hardaway, DAL ($5,400) vs. MIN
With Luka Doncic taking over the Mavs, the high-flying antics of Hardaway are in the rear-view mirror, but in recent games, the veteran's put together some remarkable lines. While his results have been erratic and he's a streaky shooter, recent performances from beyond the arc indicate that there's potential for him to put up value-numbers if he gets enough looks.
DeAndre' Bembry, ATL ($5,000) vs. BKN
Bembry got the start on Monday night, and that's a trend that could continue into Wednesday after Bembry turned in a decent 26 DKFP score over 28 minutes. We're not targeting Bembry for that number, of course. We're looking at him based on his potential ceiling, which could go into the 40-DKFP range if he excels in secondary categories. While the Nets will pay close attention to Trae Young, Bembry could see several scoring opportunities present themselves.
Dwight Howard, LAL ($3,600) @ UTA
You're always going to face some risk with Howard as JaVale McGee will inevitably see some minutes as well. However, Howard's price is so low, even a score of 20 DKFP could lead over 5x value. Hie 24 DKFP score and 20 minutes of court time in his last game provide a scenario where that's possible.
