This article is part of our NBA DFS Breakdown series.
Bucks (3-1) at Celtics
Boston has no injuries to report
Odds as accurate as 1:05 pm ET
Spread: MIL -8.5, opened MIL -8.0
Money Line: MIL -369, opened MIL -435
Over/Under: 219.5, opened 218.5
Early bets are heading towards the Celtics, with a defensive battle in mind. But both squads have a winning record against the spread in their situations. Milwaukee is 25-16-2 ATS when the home favorite, and Boston is 11-7 ATS when the away underdog. The Money Line is a similar situation. Milwaukee is 35-8 when favored at home; Boston is 9-9 when the dog on the road. In terms of the over/under, the Bucks are 23-21-1 at home and the Celtics are 24-21 when away.
All of that makes for a tough game to bet, at least based on historical numbers. The Bucks' Money Line seems to be the best option, but it's tough to have confidence in much else.
Stats through four games
For Milwaukee, it's tough to have confidence outside of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton. They're the only players on the Bucks seeing at least 30 minutes per game, and along with Eric Bledsoe, they're the only players taking double-digit shot attempts. We know Bledsoe has upside – he can be a great penetrator, passer and defender – but there seems to be something about this Boston team that he can't take advantage of. That's led to more minutes and usage for the likes of George Hill and Pat Connaughton, both of whom make for solid value options on this slate. However, with Malcolm Brogdon expected to return (on a minutes limit), Hill and Connaughton could see reductions in workload, making them riskier than usual. Brogdon himself is probably worth avoiding due to rust and a minutes cap.
Kyrie Irving and Al Horford stand out in tiers of their own on the Celtics. And while Horford has been the much more efficient player, Irving's usage has led to him collecting the most fantasy points on the team, partially due to him being the go-to option late in games. After them, Marcus Morris, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown encompass a tier of their own, as they're each averaging between 28 and 31.6 fantasy points. From a DFS standpoint, there isn't much else to explore for the Celtics, as nobody else is taking double-digit shot attempts. Even though I've been watching the series, it was surprising to see Gordon Hayward taking only 6.5 shots per contest.
Rockets at Warriors (2-2)
Spread: GS -6.0, opened GS -5.5
Money Line: GS -254, opened GS -240
Over/Under: 220.0, opened 218.5
The Warriors should win this game. Golden State is 33-12-0 when favored at home, while Houston is 8-9 when expected to lose on the road. But you might be able to find value betting on the spread. Though it's trending towards Golden State, the Warriors are just 18-26-1 ATS when favored at home, while the Rockets are 9-8 ATS when the road underdog. Taking the under appears to be a smart bet as well. In regards to the over/under, the Rockets are 17-26-2 when on the road, while the Warriors are 19-27 at home.
Stats through four games
Only five players on the Warriors have mustered double-digit fantasy point averages, and four of them – Kevin Durant, Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green – are seeing at least 39 minutes per game (Andre Iguodala is at 34.2 MPG). Durant is leading the pack, playing a ridiculous 45 MPG and averaging 51.0 FP on 25 FGA. Oddly, you might be able to get Curry at a discount, as he's shot just 26.1 percent from three this series. Rostering him on a bounceback night could mean big payoff. And with Iguodala less than 100% with a knee issue, Curry and Green might be asked to do more in terms of playmaking.
It's no surprise that James Harden and Chris Paul are leading the way for the Rockets, but Clint Capela's disappearance has paved the way for other role players to step up. Namely, P.J. Tucker, who is benefiting from a minutes and role standpoint. He's racking up 30.1 FP/game despite taking only 7.5 FGA, as he's getting 8.8 RPG, 2.3 APG and a combined 2.6 STL/BLK. Eric Gordon is also firing threes at a crazy rate, shooting 11.5 per game in the series, but 13.0 per game across the past two wins at home. Austin Rivers has also shown ability to get hot and could be worth a flier in DFS as a very cheap value option.