NBA Waiver Wire: Week 4 Look-Ahead

NBA Waiver Wire: Week 4 Look-Ahead

This article is part of our NBA Waiver Wire series.

The NBA's Week 4 schedule is relatively balanced, with only two items worth noting: First, the Spurs are the only team that plays just two games, while everyone else plays either three or four. That significantly detracts from the fantasy potential of anyone other than LaMarcus Aldridge, Rudy Gay, or DeMar DeRozan – the schedule is the primary reason Bryn Forbes isn't one of the players listed below.

The second scheduling note is that there are only four games Tuesday and Thursday, compared to 10 on Wednesday and Saturday. The Bucks, Suns, and Trail Blazers all have games on both Tuesday and Thursday, making them more valuable in daily lineup leagues without a games max. On the opposite end of the spectrum is the Kings, Cavaliers, Lakers, Grizzlies, Pelicans, Mavericks, Raptors, Bulls, and 76ers – they all play three games this week, two of which are Wednesday and Saturday. That their games come on nights when your starting lineup might already be full makes them less appealing. The Spurs have it even worse, playing only two games, both of which are Wednesday and Saturday.

The players below are listed in the order I'd recommend adding them.

This article will focus on players available in at least 50 percent of leagues. That said, especially early in the season, ownership levels don't quite correlate with value the same way that they will later in the season. Many teams are reluctant to part with some bad draft picks, meaning that some

The NBA's Week 4 schedule is relatively balanced, with only two items worth noting: First, the Spurs are the only team that plays just two games, while everyone else plays either three or four. That significantly detracts from the fantasy potential of anyone other than LaMarcus Aldridge, Rudy Gay, or DeMar DeRozan – the schedule is the primary reason Bryn Forbes isn't one of the players listed below.

The second scheduling note is that there are only four games Tuesday and Thursday, compared to 10 on Wednesday and Saturday. The Bucks, Suns, and Trail Blazers all have games on both Tuesday and Thursday, making them more valuable in daily lineup leagues without a games max. On the opposite end of the spectrum is the Kings, Cavaliers, Lakers, Grizzlies, Pelicans, Mavericks, Raptors, Bulls, and 76ers – they all play three games this week, two of which are Wednesday and Saturday. That their games come on nights when your starting lineup might already be full makes them less appealing. The Spurs have it even worse, playing only two games, both of which are Wednesday and Saturday.

The players below are listed in the order I'd recommend adding them.

This article will focus on players available in at least 50 percent of leagues. That said, especially early in the season, ownership levels don't quite correlate with value the same way that they will later in the season. Many teams are reluctant to part with some bad draft picks, meaning that some good players are still available, even in deep competitive leagues. Since there are still many valuable players who are widely available but miss that 50-percent cut-off, it's worth checking your waiver wire to see if any of the following players are still available:

Danny Green, Raptors (67 percent rostered)
Pascal Siakam, Raptors (60 percent rostered)
Cedi Osman, Cavaliers (52 percent rostered)
Zach Collins, Trail Blazers (51 percent rostered)
Bojan Bogdanovic, Pacers (55 percent rostered)

Jae Crowder, Jazz (46 percent rostered)
Next week's schedule: TOR, DAL, BOS
Crowder has somehow become more widely available over the last week, even though his Sunday and Wednesday performances were two of his best fantasy outings this season. The biggest concern about Crowder this offseason was not his ability to produce, but rather it was whether or not he would have a reliably large enough workload. Well, we're seven games in, the Jazz's frontcourt is completely healthy, and Crowder is averaging 30.7 minutes.

Crowder has not yet played fewer than 28 on any given night. He's only 28 years old, and now that he has some separation from the catastrophe that was the pre-trade 2017-18 Cavaliers, he's mostly returned to the player he was in Boston. In 2015-16 and 2016-17, he was a top-55 player over the course of the season. Even if he doesn't get quite that high in the ranks this season, he's a must-add in all formats, and managers should trade for him where possible.

Noah Vonleh, Knicks (30 percent rostered)
Next week's schedule: CHI, at ATL, at TOR, ORL
Vonleh entered the starting lineup last Friday. When the Knicks announced their new starting five, they gave no indication that the lineup was anything other than a one-time adjustment to try to match up against the Warriors. Coach David Fizdale apparently liked what he saw, though, because he has kept the new starting unit together for three games now, with Vonleh's role and workload increasing in each. He has at least one steal and one block in each of those three games, and he is averaging 8.3 rebounds and 3.3 assists in 28 minutes. His biggest drawback is that he is not much of a scorer, but his production in the other counting stats is hard to come by.

Damyean Dotson (22 percent rostered) has also been a part of this new Knicks starting lineup, and is therefore also worth adding. While Vonleh is one of the highest-priority adds this week, Dotson would rank between Moore and Holiday, below – a good add for any league size, but not someone I have any long-term confidence in.

E'Twaun Moore, Pelicans (40 percent rostered)
Next week's schedule: at OKC, CHI, PHO
As with Crowder, Moore's low ownership surprising. One of his best attributes is his low turnover rate, but even in eight-category settings he's been a top-100 player so far this season. After an early mini-slump, his three-point shooting is back above 42 percent, where it was for two of the previous three seasons. As expected, that rise accompanied an increase in scoring, and he's averaged 19.3 points per game over his last three appearances. One of the best parts of Moore's game is his combination of threes and high field goal efficiency. Steph Curry, Will Barton (who has only played two games) and Nemanja Bjelica are the only players averaging at least as many threes as Moore and have a better field goal percentage.

Justin Holiday, Bulls (38 percent rostered)
Next week's schedule: at NY, at NO, CLE
It's really hard to play 34.3 minutes per game and not provide fantasy value. Holiday is a poor shooter, so his scoring his inconsistent and his field goal percentage is harmful. But he's scored in double figures five times in eight games, and he's averaging 3.9 rebounds and 2.8 threes per game. He's not going to set the world on fire, but he's a solid fill-in, especially for managers who are looking for an IR fill-in or have a player they are ready to drop.

Other recommendations: Josh Okogie, Timberwolves (11 percent rostered); Malik Monk, Hornets (22 percent); Cody Zeller, Hornets (24 percent); Collin Sexton, Cavaliers (44 percent); Ish Smith, Pistons (17 percent); Tony Parker, Hornets (5 percent); Dante Exum, Jazz (4 percent); Reggie Bullock, Pistons (9 percent); Bryn Forbes (22 percent)

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Alex Rikleen
Rikleen writes the NBA column "Numbers Game," which decodes the math that underpins fantasy basketball and was a nominee for the 2016 FSWA Newcomer of the Year Award. A certified math teacher, Rikleen decided the field of education pays too well, so he left it for writing. He is a Boston College graduate living outside Boston.
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