This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Guards:
Damian Lillard, POR vs. NOP ($9,900): There aren't many players balling out like Dame Dolla right now and it's hard to fade him in this sort of matchup. While Lillard's last two games have been down for his standards, he's still averaging 47 fantasy points per game for the season. That number was north of 50 before the last two games, with the most recent outing limiting Lillard's minutes due to a blowout and the previous game being won by the bench. This should be a game where Lillard approaches 40 minutes, though as the spread will be within a four-point margin. Playing New Orleans is spectacular for anyone too, as they currently sit 27th in total defense. That was evident last season, as Lillard averaged 26.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, 7.3 assists and 2.3 steals across 39 minutes in four meetings with the Pelicans.
Kent Bazemore, ATL vs. SAC ($6,000): Bazemore has been the Hawks best player this season and he should continue his success against this weak Sacramento defense. Not only is Bazemore averaging 29 fantasy points per game, he's also averaging 32 DraftKings points across his last five outings. That sort of success should come more easily against the Kings, as they have a 26th OPRK against shooting guards on DraftKings. The fact that there's a 1.5-point spread and 231-point total makes this one of the games to target on this slate too, as that should make Bazemore a candidate for 35 minutes in a plus matchup.
Nicolas Batum, CHA vs. OKC ($5,700): Batum is not necessarily an exciting player for DFS, but his floor makes him hard to pass up on at this price. In fact, Batum has scored at least 21 fantasy points in all eight games this season, as he's averaging nearly 30 DraftKings points in his last four outings. The fact that he's doing that damage with a low 15 percent usage rate means that his arrow is pointing up, as Batum is north of 20 percent for his career. Look for Batum to approach or surpass his 28-point average for the season, which would make him a great bet to exceed 5X value.
Forwards:
Al Horford, BOS vs. MIL ($6,000): Milwaukee has really struggled with opposing centers the last few years, as Horford was one of those players benefiting most. In fact, Horford averaged 18.8 points, 7.3 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.3 blocks in four regular-season outings against them last season. He nearly duplicated that in the playoffs too, averaging 18.1 points, 8.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1,4 blocks against the Bucks in a seven-game series. That sort of production would make Horford a huge value at $6,000, as an 11-game sample size from last year is plenty to build off of.
Robert Covington, PHI vs. LAC ($5,400): Covington has been hovering between $4,700 and $5,500 all season long and it's a wonder why DraftKings hasn't risen his price more. The fact that Covington is averaging over 30 fantasy points per game for the year is enough incentive to bump his price, but the fact that he's averaging 37 DraftKings points across his last four games is even more reason to use him. That recent surge makes it even harder to understand this stagnant price, as Covington is one of the best values on the board.
Al-Farouq Aminu, POR vs. NOP ($4,000): This is yet another baffling price, as Aminu is one of the few players on this slate with 10X potential. Not only does he have at least 26 fantasy points in three of his last five games, Aminu is also averaging over 21 DraftKings points per game for the season. That's down from his averages last year but that's still north of 5X with this $4,000 price tag. Aminu showed that he can have success against this weak Pelicans defense too, as he averaged nearly 30 fantasy points per game in eight outings against them last season. It's risky to use a slumping player like Aminu but this $4,000 price tag takes almost all of the risk out of it.
Centers:
Willie Cauley-Stein, SAC at ATL ($6,800): Cauley-Stein has quietly been a breakout player for the Kings this season, as he's finally getting the run that he deserves. In fact, WCS is averaging 33 minutes a game across his last four outings, as he's scored at least 25 fantasy points in every game this season. The most recent stretch with all the minutes is where he's been really impressive, as Cauley-Stein is averaging 40 DraftKings points in his last four outings. That production should continue against an Atlanta defense who owns a 23rd OPRK against centers.
Jusuf Nurkic, POR vs. NOP ($5,900): This is one of the most shocking prices on this slate, as Nurkic is playing at a $7,000 level. Not only is he averaging 32 fantasy points per game for the year, he's also dropped at least 40 DraftKings points in three of his last five outings. That success should continue against New Orleans too, as they have an OPRK of 24th against centers on DK. Nurkic had some success against the Pelicans last season too, averaging nearly 40 fantasy points in his last two regular-season meetings against them.
