John Means

John Means

30-Year-Old PitcherSP
Baltimore Orioles
15-Day IL
Injury Forearm
Est. Return 4/23/2024
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Means underwent Tommy John surgery in April of 2022. He was ticketed for a return around the All-Star break, but he was diagnosed with an upper back strain in May, putting his rehab on hold. Means finally made it back for four starts in September. He posted a 2.66 ERA and .72 ERA over those 23.2 innings, but don't get too excited as Means fanned only 10 batters while surrendering four homers. He benefited from a .130 BABIP and 88.7 percent left on base mark, both which would have corrected if he compiled more innings. Most importantly, Means' velocity and control were at pre-surgery level, and starting four games should allow Means to undergo a regular offseason. Even so, with fewer then 50 frames thrown last season (including rehab games), Means 2024 workload will likely be capped. He should benefit from the 2022 renovations in Camden Yards, but Means has never been a strikeout hurler, so he remains subject to the whims of batted ball fate. If someone wants to draft last season's small sample, by all means, let them. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#380
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $3.33 million contract with the Orioles in January of 2024.
Making another rehab start
PBaltimore Orioles
Forearm
April 15, 2024
Orioles general manager Mike Elias said Means (forearm) will make another rehab start during the upcoming week, Danielle Allentuck of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
ANALYSIS
Means made the third start of his rehab assignment this past Thursday with Triple-A Norfolk, striking out three over three innings while allowing two runs on two hits and two walks. The lefty tossed 61 pitches (35 strikes) in the start, so he may need only one or two more outings in the minors before getting cleared to return from the 15-day injured list. Once activated, Means will most likely join the rotation as a replacement for Cole Irvin, as the two southpaws' pitching schedules are currently aligned.
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Pitching Stats
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2024
2023
2022
2021
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2018
2024 MLB Game Log
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2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-9%
BAA vs LHP
2024
No Stats
2023
 
 
-18%
BAA vs RHP
2022
 
 
-51%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2022vs Left .172 32 4 2 5 2 0 2
Since 2022vs Right .190 90 13 4 16 3 0 2
2024vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023vs Left .182 23 3 1 4 1 0 2
2023vs Right .150 65 7 3 9 3 0 2
2022vs Left .143 9 1 1 1 1 0 0
2022vs Right .292 25 6 1 7 0 0 0
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-60%
ERA on Road
2024
No Stats
2023
 
 
-63%
ERA on Road
2022
 
 
-50%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2022Home 4.11 0.72 15.1 0 2 0 4.1 0.6 1.8
Since 2022Away 1.65 0.98 16.1 1 0 0 5.5 2.8 0.6
2024Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023Home 3.97 0.71 11.1 0 2 0 4.0 0.0 2.4
2023Away 1.46 0.73 12.1 1 0 0 3.6 2.9 0.7
2022Home 4.50 0.75 4.0 0 0 0 4.5 2.3 0.0
2022Away 2.25 1.75 4.0 0 0 0 11.3 2.3 0.0
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Defensive Stats
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Feels ahead of schedule
PBaltimore Orioles
July 7, 2022
Means, who is on the injured list with an elbow injury, hopes to be fully training in the weight room in a couple of weeks, reports Zachary Silver of MLB.com.
ANALYSIS
Means had Tommy John surgery on April 25 and is reportedly progressing well in the rehabilitation process. While he feels ahead of schedule, the lefty likely won't be ready to participate in-game action by the beginning of next season and a midseason return seems most likely at this point. Baltimore will have two years of team control beyond this year and, Means should remain a major piece of the rotation once healthy.
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
Means made only two starts in 2022 before he required Tommy John surgery and missed the rest of the season. The left-hander started a throwing program in October and is likely to miss the first couple months of 2023, but he should be available by at least the All-Star break. He had a 3.62 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 134:26 K:BB across 146.2 innings during the 2021 campaign and should be a key piece of Baltimore's rotation once healthy, but his workload is likely to remain limited early on in his return from the procedure. Means' value could rise significantly if he returns ahead of schedule -- especially with Camden Yards being more pitcher friendly since the left-field fence was moved back -- though he may also need some time to round back into form while coming off a major elbow surgery.
On the surface, Means rebounded from 2020's disappointing campaign with numbers resembling 2019. However, in terms of peripherals, Means was much closer to 2020 when he ramped up his strikeouts. This is reflective of his style. His flyball nature, especially in Camden Yards, leaves Means among the league leaders in homers allowed. However, it also fuels a low BABIP, and since he's stingy with free passes (4.4 BB%), he generates a low WHIP. This leaves his ERA up to how many ducks are on the pond when he yields a long ball. In 2020, 77% of the runs Means surrendered came on a home run, compared to 70% last season. Durability is also an issue as Means has missed time two of the past three campaigns with left shoulder soreness. Means' perennially low WHIP is enticing, but his strikeouts aren't sufficient to balance possible ERA damage. Streaming is risky since Camden Yards mitigates home field advantage.
Means was an All-Star in 2019, though that says far more about the Orioles than about his own talents. His 4.41 FIP and 5.48 xFIP suggested that a fair amount of regression in his 3.60 ERA was due, and that did indeed happen, as he finished 2020 with a 4.53 ERA in 10 starts. While his ERA rose by nearly a run, his underlying numbers generally moved in an encouraging direction. His K% jumped from 19.0 to 23.9, due in part to a jump in fastball velocity from 91.8 to 93.8 mph. He also cut his BB% from 6.0 to 4.0 while increasing his groundball rate from 30.9% to 43.9%. The righty's ERA increase can be traced in large part to his massive jump in HR/FB rate from 9.9% to 21.8%, a number over which a pitcher typically doesn't exercise much control. While the new version of Means certainly isn't special, a locked-in starter who produces a league-average K% and an ERA around 4.50 does have value in deeper leagues.
Means broke camp in a relief role but quickly moved into the rotation, establishing himself as Baltimore's most dependable pitcher over the remainder of the season by winning 12 games -- no small feat on a 54-win team -- while posting a 3.73 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 27 starts. The lefty dealt with shoulder and biceps injuries over the summer, which coincided with his worst stretch of the season (5.18 ERA in July and August), though he rebounded in September and pitched into the seventh inning in five of his last seven starts. While Means does a good job limiting free passes (2.2 BB/9) and hard contact, he doesn't record many strikeouts (7.0 K/9) and allows too many homers (1.3 HR/9) while pitching in a tough division, which limits his fantasy upside. His spot in a weak Orioles rotation is safe, though indicators suggest Means was pitching over his head last season (4.41 FIP and 5.48 xFIP).
More Fantasy News
Making second rehab start
PBaltimore Orioles
Forearm
April 6, 2024
Means (forearm) will get the start for Triple-A Norfolk on Saturday against Charlotte, Steve Melewski of MASNSports.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Struggles in rehab start
PBaltimore Orioles
Forearm
April 1, 2024
Means (forearm) was roughed up for seven runs over one-plus inning Sunday in his first rehab start with Triple-A Norfolk.
ANALYSIS
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Starting rehab assignment Sunday
PBaltimore Orioles
Forearm
March 30, 2024
Means (forearm) will begin his rehab assignment Sunday with Triple-A Norfolk.
ANALYSIS
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Opens season on IL
PBaltimore Orioles
Forearm
March 28, 2024
The Orioles placed Means on the 15-day injured list Thursday with a left forearm strain.
ANALYSIS
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Set for rehab assignment
PBaltimore Orioles
Elbow
March 26, 2024
Means (elbow) is scheduled to begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Norfolk soon, Dan Connolly of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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