Mitch Keller
27-Year-Old
2024 Stats
W-L
0-0
ERA
0.00
WHIP
0.00
K
0
SV
0
Rest-of-Season Projections
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Keller earned his first career All-Star nod in 2023 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 19 starts during the first half, but he fell apart after the break with a 5.59 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 13 outings. The good news is that the right-hander stayed mostly healthy and set a career high with 194.1 innings, and he also improved his strikeout rate to 25.5 percent and walk rate to 6.7 percent. Keller also may have received some unfortunate results, as indicated by a 3.83 SIERA and 3.70 xFIP compared to a 4.21 ERA. Despite the struggles down the stretch in 2023, it's a season to build on as he enters his age-28 campaign. Keller certainly shouldn't be the ace of a staff but is a strong option to round out a rotation for fantasy managers in 2024, especially if he can maintain the decent strikeout and win (13) totals. Read Past Outlooks
Not worried about decreased velo
Keller sat between 90-92 mph for much of his spring training outing Wednesday against the Orioles, Alex Stumpf of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
The decreased velocity is a red flag not only for his potential level of performance but also as a potential indication of injury. However, he completed four innings -- his longest outing of the spring -- and told reporters after the game that he wasn't worried and that his velocity would ramp back up as the intensity of games increased. Though his results were inconsistent, Keller is coming off a breakout season during which he struck out 210 batters across 194.1 innings, and he'll take the mound on Opening Day against the Marlins.
The decreased velocity is a red flag not only for his potential level of performance but also as a potential indication of injury. However, he completed four innings -- his longest outing of the spring -- and told reporters after the game that he wasn't worried and that his velocity would ramp back up as the intensity of games increased. Though his results were inconsistent, Keller is coming off a breakout season during which he struck out 210 batters across 194.1 innings, and he'll take the mound on Opening Day against the Marlins.
Pitching Stats
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2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
Minor League Game Log
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2022
-5%
BAA vs RHP
2024
No Stats
BAA | K | BB | H | HR | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Since 2022vs Left | .263 | 170 | 71 | 178 | 21 | |||
Since 2022vs Right | .250 | 178 | 44 | 171 | 18 | |||
2024vs Left | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
2024vs Right | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
2023vs Left | .253 | 115 | 37 | 98 | 16 | |||
2023vs Right | .244 | 95 | 18 | 89 | 9 | |||
2022vs Left | .276 | 55 | 34 | 80 | 5 | |||
2022vs Right | .257 | 83 | 26 | 82 | 9 | |||
More Splits→ | View More Split Stats |
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2022
-32%
ERA at Home
2024
No Stats
ERA | WHIP | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Since 2022Home | 3.31 | 1.23 | 177.0 | 8.0 | 2.9 | ||||
Since 2022Away | 4.85 | 1.40 | 176.1 | 9.7 | 3.0 | ||||
2024Home | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
2024Away | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
2023Home | 2.90 | 1.06 | 90.0 | 8.4 | 2.3 | ||||
2023Away | 5.35 | 1.41 | 104.1 | 10.9 | 2.8 | ||||
2022Home | 3.72 | 1.40 | 87.0 | 7.6 | 3.5 | ||||
2022Away | 4.13 | 1.39 | 72.0 | 8.1 | 3.3 | ||||
More Splits→ | View More Split Stats |
Stat Review
How does Mitch Keller compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
K/BB
3.82K/9
9.7BB/9
2.5HR/9
1.2Fastball
94.6 mphERA
4.21WHIP
1.25BABIP
.324GB/FB
1.48Left On Base
70.0%Exit Velocity
81.5 mphBarrels/BBE
5.1%Spin Rate
2455 rpmBalls Hit 95+ MPH
21.4%Swinging Strike
10.1%Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Mitch Keller See More
Tarik Skubal gets an easy matchup against the White Sox on Opening Day, making him worth his high price tag on DraftKings.
Even with a tough matchup against the Phillies in Citizens Bank Park on Opening Day, Spencer Strider takes the top spot in the first Weekly Pitcher Rankings of the year.
Injuries and signings have caused plenty of shifts in our rankings over the last two weeks, with Elly De La Cruz jumping up six spots due to teammates missing time.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
Through his first seven starts of 2022, Keller had a 6.61 ERA. After he was briefly demoted to a relief role, it appeared the Keller was on a continued trajectory of an underwhelming MLB career. However, the narrative quickly took a turn, as Keller re-entered the rotation and closed the campaign by maintaining a 3.22 ERA across his last 120.1 innings. He turned into a contact-heavy pitcher in that span by maintaining only a 20.7 K%, but that also allowed him to fill the strike zone and maintain an 8.8 BB% (career 9.7 BB%). Even more of a revelation was Keller's ability to keep batted balls on the ground, as his GB% spiked to 49.4% and HR/9 fell to 0.7. While those exact numbers may not be replicable, the positive results were made more believable by a tangible change in Keller's pitch mix. He threw his four-seam fastball less in exchange for introducing a sinker, so the tradeoff of swings and misses for groundballs is sensible. While his role once seemed to be in danger, Keller is locked in as a top-three pitcher in the Pirates' rotation, and he could be capable of turning in solid ratios without much strikeout or win upside.
More Fantasy News
Draws Opening Day nod
Pirates manager Derek Shelton said Thursday that Keller will serve as the club's Opening Day starter March 28 in Miami, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
ANALYSIS
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Nabs five-year contract extension
Keller agreed to a five-year contract extension with the Pirates on Thursday, Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN.com report.
ANALYSIS
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Avoids arbitration
Keller signed a one-year, $5.4425 million contract with the Pirates on Thursday to avoid arbitration, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Gets early shutdown
Keller will not start Sunday's season finale against the Marlins, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
ANALYSIS
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Punches out six in no-decision
Keller did not factor into the decision Tuesday against the Phillies, allowing two runs on three hits and two walks over six innings. He struck out six.
ANALYSIS
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