Paul Goldschmidt
Paul Goldschmidt
32-Year-Old First Baseman1B
St. Louis Cardinals
2020 Fantasy Outlook
Goldschmidt's first season with the Cardinals was the worst of his career since his rookie campaign. The change in venue from Chase Field to Busch Stadium accounts for a lot of the discrepancy, but not all of it. Statcast data shows Goldschmidt's average exit velocity and hard-hit rate dropped for the second straight season along with his xBA, xSLG and xwOBA. It wasn't much, but since he's on the other side of 30 years old, it's worth noting. Another area of concern is Goldschmidt's patience has declined four years in a row. Finally, while the veteran slugger launched over 30 homers for the third straight season, his extra-base hits dropped precipitously, suggesting Goldschmidt was aided by the reduced-drag ball. Putting it together, there are signs of decline, but the slope is gentle. If the market overreacts to last season's slide, don't hesitate to invest. Read Past Outlooks
$Signed a five-year, $130 million contract extension with the Cardinals in March of 2019.
Elbow much better after layoff
1BSt. Louis Cardinals
Elbow
July 3, 2020
Goldschmidt, who was present for the Cardinals' first day of summer camp Friday, reports his previously sore right elbow is feeling much better following the long layoff, Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports. "I was able to take some time off and give it some rest and get treatment on it for awhile," Goldschmidt said during a video conference at Busch Stadium on Friday. "It's 100 percent now. I'm not sure if it would have been if we rolled right into the season. Hopefully that's one positive, personally."
ANALYSIS
The extended suspension of all official baseball activities carried a silver lining for several injured players, with Goldschmidt one prominent example. The 32-year-old remained in South Florida for the last three months, which not only gave him access to the Cardinals' spring training facility in Jupiter for treatment, but also enabled him to work out with the likes of Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer. The fact he was able to get at-bats against two of the game's elite pitchers should certainly have him ready to jump back into batting practice against his own team's pitchers.
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Batting Stats
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2019
2018
2017
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
46
63
12
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
9
20
5
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2017
 
 
+12%
OPS vs LHP
2019
 
 
+21%
OPS vs LHP
2018
 
 
+7%
OPS vs LHP
2017
 
 
+6%
OPS vs LHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2017vs Left .980 492 80 30 80 8 .292 .407 .574
Since 2017vs Right .878 1541 229 73 220 20 .279 .371 .507
2019vs Left .961 127 24 9 24 1 .269 .394 .567
2019vs Right .791 553 73 25 73 2 .258 .335 .456
2018vs Left .966 204 30 11 26 0 .291 .402 .564
2018vs Right .904 485 65 22 57 7 .290 .384 .520
2017vs Left 1.013 161 26 10 30 7 .311 .422 .591
2017vs Right .952 503 91 26 90 11 .293 .398 .554
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2017
 
 
+1%
OPS on Road
2019
 
 
+4%
OPS at Home
2018
 
 
+35%
OPS on Road
2017
 
 
+27%
OPS at Home
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2017Home .898 1016 167 49 145 12 .278 .386 .512
Since 2017Away .906 1017 142 54 155 16 .286 .373 .533
2019Home .837 338 55 17 52 2 .277 .352 .485
2019Away .805 342 42 17 45 1 .241 .339 .466
2018Home .782 342 40 12 32 1 .238 .363 .420
2018Away 1.053 347 55 21 51 6 .339 .415 .638
2017Home 1.082 336 72 20 61 9 .321 .443 .639
2017Away .852 328 45 16 59 9 .275 .363 .489
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Stat Review
How does Paul Goldschmidt compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
BB/K
0.47
 
BB Rate
11.5%
 
K Rate
24.4%
 
BABIP
.303
 
ISO
.216
 
AVG
.260
 
OBP
.346
 
SLG
.476
 
OPS
.821
 
wOBA
.359
 
Exit Velocity
90.1 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
47.5%
 
Barrels/PA
7.0%
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
The impact of the humidor was felt in Arizona, but it did not affect Goldschmidt's power numbers. His 2017 and 2018 seasons were essentially identical; he had 73 extra-base hits in 2017, and repeated that number in 2018. He lost three homers that became doubles and triples. The problem for him was that the talent around him fell off so his run-producing opportunities were impacted. From 2015 to 2017, Goldschmidt had an average of 431 runners on base each season when he was at the plate. In 2018, that number dropped to 386. He also ran far less frequently, continuing a trend from 2017. Goldschmidt's year-over-year skills are stable and safe, and the counting numbers should improve following a December trade to the Cardinals. We have to wonder if the days of double-digit steals are gone for good, but this is still a skill set worthy of an early selection -- just probably not a first-round pick anymore.
Only Charlie Blackmon, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge outearned Goldschmidt last season. The overall numbers picked up where 2015 left off after the slight power hiccup in 2016. The only thing that has held Goldschmidt back in recent years was the broken hand that ended his season in early August of 2014. As long as Goldschmidt is on the field, the production is virtually a first-round lock, although news that Chase Field will install a humidor this season adds a degree of uncertainty moving forward. To this point, the numbers have been consistent across the board and where other hitters suffer volatility from year to year -- you can practically pencil in a $30 season for Goldschmidt and see what happens in the stolen-base department. Eventually, the bonus speed from the first-base position is going to wane, but as long as he has an aggressive manager that lets him run, Goldschmidt should at least get to double digits for a couple more seasons.
If a .297/.411/.489 slash line with 24 home runs and 95 RBI can be considered a down year, then you know just how good Goldschmidt has been across his six MLB seasons. In 2015, Goldschmidt slashed an absurd .321/.435/.570 with 33 home runs and 110 RBI. Expecting a repeat of those numbers might have been unfair, but that is the standard Goldschmidt has set. On a positive note, he scored 106 runs in 2016, up from 103 in 2015. He also went from 21 stolen bases in 2015 to 32 in 2016. It is his speed and base-stealing acumen that really makes Goldschmidt a special player in fantasy. It is unclear if he will run as much under new manager Torey Lovullo, but considering he upped his success rate from 80.8 percent to 86.5 percent last season, it seems likely that he will have the green light more often than not. Coming off that "down" year, Goldschmidt is no longer a lock to go in the top-five, but he is the clear top player at his position and still has all the tools to finish the year as a top-five player in fantasy.
Simply put, Goldschmidt is the best first baseman in fantasy baseball. Few players combine batting average, power and speed the way Goldy does. In 2015, his batting average was good for third in the National League, his 33 home runs placed fifth in the circuit, the 118 RBI were second in the NL and he chipped in 21 stolen bases (14th in the NL). All of this came as Goldy played in 159 games, a year after he played in just 109 games due to a hand injury. At just 28 years old, Goldschmidt is in the early stages of his peak years, so his production should remain at this level for a while. Owners may find it hard to pass on the likes of Mike Trout and Bryce Harper with a top-two pick, but Goldschmidt deserves consideration there, and he will come off the board in the first five picks in almost all mixed league drafts.
Last season was a mirror image of 2013 for the fantasy stud in terms of his batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. That is where the good news ends. Goldschmidt missed 51 games with a broken hand and was unavailable to owners for the final two months of the season. At the point of his injury, his RBI total was just 55 percent of what it was in 2013 because the team around him was rather awful. With a full season, he would have likely matched his stolen base total from 2013 and swiped at least 10 bases for a third straight season, as a first baseman. Even for a young player, Goldschmidt’s skills are stable. His strikeout rate is slightly below league average, but he offsets that with a well-above-league-average walk rate. He doesn’t get himself into trouble chasing pitches and in a time where offense is tapering off, this guy flat out rakes. Goldschmidt is first-round material again in 2015.
The brightest star in Arizona's lineup, Goldschmidt had an MVP-worthy year, hitting 36 home runs and driving in 125 runs, while slugging .551. It was the kind of breakout year the organization knew he was capable of, and MVP voters took note, as he finished second to Andrew McCutchen for the honors during the offseason. He's the biggest constant in the batting order, and 2014 figures to be another outstanding campaign for the 26-year-old stud, as his contributions as a five-category player will make him the first player off the board at his position in many leagues this spring.
Goldschmidt entered the season as the D-Backs' uncontested starter at first base, spending most of the year hitting from the middle third of manager Kirk Gibson's lineup. Not surprisingly, Goldschmidt provided steady power, but he also delivered an unexpected 18-for-21 mark on the basepaths. After struggling against lefties in his first exposure to big league pitching in 2011, Goldschmidt hit .343/.423/.645 against them last season. He also improved his overall contact rate (from 70.1 percent to 77.9) while drawing a steady supply of free passes (10.2 percent walk rate). Goldschmidt had better numbers on the road (.315/.377/.516) than at Chase Field (.253/.339/.461) and his ISO (.204) is one indication that there's likely more than 20-homer power here.
Goldschmidt proved that his impressive power display in 2010 wasn't simply the byproduct of the hitter-friendly parks of the California League, parlaying a .306/.435/.626 line with Double-A Mobile into the opportunity to serve as the D-Backs everyday first baseman down the stretch and in the playoffs. As expected, Goldschmidt's strikeout rate jumped upon his promotion to the big leagues, but he continued to display plus power while hitting a couple of clutch homers in the team's postseason push before delivering a 7-for-16 mark with a pair of homers in the Divisional Series against the Brewers. While he may not be a .300 hitter in the big leagues, Goldschmidt should be an immediate 30-homer threat with an opportunity to lock down a spot near the middle of the D-Backs' lineup.
More Fantasy News
Getting treatment on elbow
1BSt. Louis Cardinals
Elbow
April 17, 2020
Goldschmidt (elbow) has been getting preventative care and treatment at the Cardinals' spring training facility, Laurie Skrivan of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
ANALYSIS
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Thrives in spring
1BSt. Louis Cardinals
Elbow
March 24, 2020
Goldschmidt (elbow) hit .300 (6-for-20) with two doubles, two home runs, four RBI, five walks and three runs across nine Grapefruit League games before spring training was suspended.
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Tending to sore elbow
1BSt. Louis Cardinals
Elbow
March 11, 2020
Cardinals manager Mike Shildt said Wednesday that Goldschmidt is dealing with right elbow soreness and will be out of the Grapefruit League lineup for at least "a couple of days," Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Bat starting to heat up
1BSt. Louis Cardinals
March 3, 2020
Goldschmidt, who went 2-for-3 with a solo home run off Justin Verlander in a Grapefruit League win over the Astros on Tuesday, has launched both of his spring round trippers over the last three games.
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Cleared to play field
1BSt. Louis Cardinals
February 26, 2020
Goldschmidt (elbow) will start at first base and bat third in Wednesday's Grapefruit League game against the Marlins, Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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