Manny Machado
Manny Machado
26-Year-Old ShortstopSS
San Diego Padres
2019 Fantasy Outlook
It’s rare a superstar hits free agency entering his age-26 season, but that’s what happens when you debut at 19. Machado is coming off arguably his best year as he exhibited above-average-to-elite skills across the board. He set new career best levels in contact and walk rate, contributing to new personal highs in average, homers and RBI. Plus, Machado returned to swiping double-digit bases with his best ever success rate. Much has been made of Machado’s “Johnny Hustle” comment and the ensuing backtrack clarification, but missing only 11 games over the past four campaigns, including playing all 162 in 2015 and 2018, speaks volumes. It’s no secret the defensive metrics rank him as one of the best at the hot corner but below average at shortstop. For fantasy, it doesn’t matter, though he’s lost dual eligibility, entering 2019 as shortstop only. Machado has it all: durability, elite skills and youth. Ignore the rest. He’s one of the top players in the game. Read Past Outlooks
$Signed a 10-year, $300 million contract with the Padres in February of 2019. The contract includes an opt-out clause for 2024.
Notches first hit of spring
SSSan Diego Padres
March 4, 2019
Machado went 1-for-3 with a double and a run scored Monday against the Indians.
ANALYSIS
Machado secured his first hit since joining the Padres, doubling to center field in the bottom of the fourth inning. As expected, he slotted in at the hot corner and batted third, which is where he figures to stay throughout the regular season.
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Batting Stats
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Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2016
 
 
+6%
OPS vs LHP
2018
 
 
+3%
OPS vs LHP
2017
 
 
+8%
OPS vs LHP
2016
 
 
+7%
OPS vs LHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2016vs Left .891 552 78 24 67 6 .298 .366 .525
Since 2016vs Right .841 1543 192 83 231 17 .278 .331 .510
2018vs Left .921 215 26 11 30 5 .297 .386 .535
2018vs Right .897 494 58 26 77 9 .298 .358 .539
2017vs Left .826 169 24 8 22 1 .269 .314 .513
2017vs Right .767 521 57 25 73 8 .255 .309 .458
2016vs Left .919 168 28 5 15 0 .329 .393 .526
2016vs Right .862 528 77 32 81 0 .283 .328 .535
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2016
 
 
+20%
OPS at Home
2018
 
 
+31%
OPS at Home
2017
 
 
+34%
OPS at Home
2016
 
 
+2%
OPS at Home
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2016Home .937 1016 136 64 156 11 .304 .368 .568
Since 2016Away .778 1079 134 43 142 12 .264 .314 .464
2018Home 1.037 328 46 24 54 6 .329 .415 .622
2018Away .794 381 38 13 53 8 .272 .325 .468
2017Home .895 354 46 22 55 5 .288 .350 .544
2017Away .666 336 35 11 40 4 .229 .268 .398
2016Home .885 334 44 18 47 0 .299 .341 .543
2016Away .868 362 61 19 49 0 .289 .345 .523
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Stat Review
How does Manny Machado compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
BB/K
0.67
 
BB Rate
9.9%
 
K Rate
14.7%
 
BABIP
.304
 
ISO
.241
 
AVG
.297
 
OBP
.367
 
SLG
.538
 
OPS
.905
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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17 days ago
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
Machado got off to a dismal start to 2017, batting .205/.286/.405 over the first two months of the campaign. However, all the underlying numbers said a rebound was imminent, and sure enough, he came on strong down the stretch. While his walk rate fell to just 5.8 percent after the All-Star break, Machado made more consistent contact (13.2 percent strikeout rate) and that helped him hit .290 and slug .500 in the second half. He slashed just .229/.268/.398 away from Camden Yards for the year, but Machado hit on the road the previous two seasons (.289/.345/.523 in 2016 and .282/.351/.465 in 2015), so it seems likely that 2017 will end up being the outlier with that particular split. While the 25-year-old has lost shortstop eligibility, he could regain it in-season. His price will likely be depressed more than it should coming off a down season. Buy in bulk.
Machado set career highs in home runs, RBI, runs, and batting average, cementing his first-round status despite not stealing a single base. Such $30 players have to be good across the board or great in a few things, and luckily for Machado owners, he is excellent in the other categories. Sure, it would be nice if he stole bases again, but the rest of his excellence will do just fine. Picking faults in Machado is like saying your Lamborghini is only getting up to 220 mph on the Autobahn. While he is split-neutral in terms of batting average, 86 of the 105 homers he has hit in his career have come against right-handed pitching. Machado has good bats in front of him and behind him, which puts him in an ideal spot of the lineup to continue to be a top-shelf run producer. The team hits like a softball team, but Machado could be even better if the Orioles add a true table-setter to the leadoff spot.
Machado suffered his second serious leg injury in August of 2014, so his 2015 season was a complete shock to even his most ardent supporters. He swiped 20 bases, scored 102 times and hit 35 home runs while driving in 86 runners, setting career highs across the board in his age-23 season. One can look long and hard at his skills without finding a flaw. He is a patient hitter at the plate, makes contact above the league-average rate and his Isolated Power figure has risen three consecutive seasons. He could move down another spot in the lineup if Chris Davis goes elsewhere in free agency, and though a move down the lineup will likely reduce his stolen base total, it should bump up his RBI count. A 40-homer season isn’t impossible as he’s still filling out physically. In a 15-team mixed league, Machado shouldn’t make it out of the first round.
Machado is exhibit 1,527,106 in the Never Believe The Player Theory. As the theory goes, whatever return date a player tells the media or how said player will avoid the disabled list, throw the story in the trash can because it is useless. There were many stories about how Machado felt like he would be ready to start the season, but he did not make his season debut until May 1. His season started late and ended early, as yet another knee injury ended his season in mid-August. Machado has already had three major injuries and two surgeries in just four professional seasons of baseball. Some of those 51 doubles he hit in 2013 became homers in 2014, but a combination of injuries and a line-drive swing make it unlikely that Machado hits 20 homers in 2015. He remains a better real player than a fantasy one.
It was thought that Machado would take time to mature as a hitter, but instead he hit .310 in the first half and was on pace to break the MLB record for doubles. He's still not a finished product as shown with his 4.1% walk rate, a clear sign that Machado needs to develop more patience at the plate. Machado suffered an ugly knee injury in the final week of the season and needed surgery to repair a torn medial patellar ligament. Although he had the procedure in mid-October and there was no reported damage to his ACL or MCL, Machado is facing a six-month rehab window. As a result, he is in danger of missing Opening Day. Once Machado is ready to take the field again, he will be one of the more attractive options at third base, and over the next few years some of those doubles should begin to turn into home runs as he reaches his power peak.
With a lack of production at third base, the Orioles shocked many by calling up Machado, who had just turned 20 years old, having him bypass Triple-A altogether. While he was a bit overaggressive at the plate (9:39 BB:K), Machado held his own considering his age. Machado is still developing both his eye at the plate and his power, but he is expected to blossom into a star. With J.J. Hardy's contract extended through 2014, Machado should remain at third base for the time being. Machado may take some time to develop, so his value is far greater in keeper formats.
Machado effectively played his first professional season after playing just nine games in 2010 as the Orioles' first-round draft pick. The 19-year-old tore up Low-A, hitting .276/.376/.483 with six home runs in just 170 plate appearances, showing good plate discipline as well before a dislocated knee cap sent him to the disabled list. He then hit a bit of a road block in High-A, where he couldn't draw as many walks nor hit for as much power (five homers in 260 plate appearances). Look for the youngster to get another crack at High-A and hopefully move up to Double-A next season.
Machado, the third overall selection in the 2010 draft, went 11-for-36 with one home run and just three strikeouts in a brief professional debut. He projects as a very good hitter at the MLB level and he should develop power as he continues to grow. Keeper and dynasty league owners should be prepared to invest here, however, as he's drawn legitimate comparisons to Alex Rodriguez. Even if Machado fails to become next A-Rod (fail is a strong word), he should hit for average and double-digit (think 20-homer) power down the road. Just don't expect to see him at the big league level before 2013.
More Fantasy News
To play third base for San Diego
SSSan Diego Padres
February 21, 2019
Machado has agreed to play third base for the Padres, Jon Heyman of FancredSports.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Signs with San Diego
SSSan Diego Padres
February 19, 2019
Machado signed with the Padres on Tuesday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Sox still offering seven years
SSFree Agent
January 15, 2019
The White Sox claim they have not moved off a seven-year offer to Machado, Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times reports.
ANALYSIS
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Details of White Sox offer emerge
SSFree Agent
January 14, 2019
Machado has received an eight-year offer from the White Sox, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports. The deal is reported to be worth $250 million, per Hector Gomez of Z101 Digital.
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Offered contract
SSFree Agent
January 5, 2019
The White Sox have offered Machado a long-term contract, per four sources with direct knowledge of the offer, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports.
ANALYSIS
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