The Z Files: Dissection of an Early Draft Part One

Well, that was fun. My first 2022 draft is in the books. As I've discussed in this space, I partner with Derek VanRiper to draft a team in the Premature E-Draftulation League, an NFBC Satellite commencing the last week of the regular season. What follows is the team, with an honest appraisal at the end. My goal is to convey my thought process at each choice, with a focus on working as a team. I don't think I'm talking out of school by saying if DVR or I flew solo, the team would be different.

1.11 Corbin Burnes

No, this is not the first time a team I manage drafted an arm in the first round, but it's rare. Humblebrag alert, in 2016 I selected Clayton Kershaw at 1.06 in Mixed LABR and cruised to a victory. That said, there are two reasons I followed DVR's lead and landed on Burnes. While this is a real league with real money on the line, it's still a laboratory for me. I mean, it's still September when we start, how can it not be? If there is ever an opportunity to experience a team build starting with an arm, this is it. The other reason is there wasn't a hitter screaming "Pick me!" in this spot.

This begs the question; would I have opted for Burnes if drafting alone? I'm honestly not sure. First off, working blindly, I may have gone with Gerrit Cole. However, the bigger issue is, what batter would have filled the slot? I'm guessing Kyle Tucker would be the likeliest answer, and I'm pretty sure I prefer the Burnes route. For the record, as will be explained in an upcoming Z Files, rankings need not be followed verbatim, but I have not yet finished my pitching projections, so I still don't know who I would have listed higher: Burnes or Cole? Along those lines, while I did not have my batters done for the draft, I do have the first run of rankings based on my extremely preliminary projections and may reference them as we go along.

2.20 Cedric Mullins

Mullins will no doubt garner a lot of bandwidth in the fantasy community. Our 2021 entry, The Athletic and Non Athletic, was woefully devoid of steals, as were most of my teams. Mullins will run, it's just a matter of him being worthy of this lofty draft status. He checks most of the pertinent boxes. Mullins has both center field and the leadoff spot sewn up, so volume is there. There's no evidence of injury concerns, so durability is a plus. Camden Yards is one of the best hitting venues, and although the Orioles roster isn't good, the top portion of their lineup is potent, so team context isn't a negative. All that's left is a track record of success, which is an admitted leap of faith. We agreed Mullins' hit tool appears solid and repeatable, providing the foundation needed to invest this level of draft capital.

Reviewing the G-chat for this pick, Derek had to convince me on Mullins as I was looking at Freddie Freeman, Whit Merrifield and Starling Marte, all of which went around 10 picks later. I talked myself out of Merrifield and Freeman, ultimately agreeing on Mullins. For what it's worth, my initial rankings have Freeman just ahead of Mullins, who is just two spots in front of Marte with Merrifield further down. The first three are so close, it's a matter of roster construct and risk. I rubber-stamped Mullins as we wanted steals, and he's younger and more durable than Marte.

3.41 Xander Bogaerts

With Derek recently moving to the Bay Area, we were dealing with a three-hour time difference, though my night-owl ways reduced the gap. Still, he was around later, and I was (usually) online earlier, so we tried to have our short list ready in the event our turn came when one of us was not online. Our modus operandi was for one of us to throw a bunch of names the other's way, then we'd pare it down (or have it pared down for us as players got drafted) until we had a couple of names we both liked. If one of us wasn't around, we trusted the other to make the pick. Most often, we were both available on our turn. With that as a backdrop, here is the G-Chat exchange we had for Bogaerts. It's a good example of how we approached each pick.

Todd Zola, Oct 2, 5:49 PM

Off the cuff, and in no particular order (and likely missing someone) Arozarena, Meadows, Teoscar, Springer, Bogaerts, Goldschmidt, Castellanos, Machado, Abreu, Judge -- a stick will be there.

Derek VanRiper, Oct 2, 6:31 PM

I like Springer, Judge, Machado and Bogaerts the most out of the bunch...Abreu, Arozarena probably the next closest

Todd Zola, Oct 2, 6:42 PM

Recent picks aren't making it any easier - but I suppose that's a good thing

Derek VanRiper, Oct 2, 6:47 PM

Springer might slide another round, given the lost time

Todd Zola, Oct 2, 6:49 PM

Machado is interesting -- with our luck he'll get hurt for the first time in forever

he'll have missed fewer than 30 games since missing half of 2014

Derek VanRiper, Oct 2, 6:50 PM

that's the Anthony Rendon template

Todd Zola, Oct 2, 6:51 PM

yup

Todd Zola, Oct 2, 7:46 PM

Well...Bogaerts helps with positions, he's (likely) been battling a sore wrist. Any of these guys are fine

Todd Zola, Oct 2, 8:16 PM

to us, I'm here all night

Derek VanRiper, Oct 2, 8:40 PM

I think XB is the best hitter of the bunch

Judge maybe better for pop, but AVG has lean Bogaerts, right?

Todd Zola, Oct 2, 8:41 PM

works for me.

yeah, he's a .300 guy when healthy

Derek VanRiper, Oct 2, 8:41 PM

I think that's the right call

Todd Zola, Oct 2, 8:41 PM

just have to hope the wrist thing gets better with rest

My comment about the others not making it any easier had to do with no one from the queue being drafted. In fact, of all the names on the table, only Manny Machado was off the board. I'd like to think DVR was on Bogaerts organically, and he didn't view it as a concession since I signed off on Burnes in the first. It's no secret he roots for the Brewers while I bleed Red Sox.

As it turned out, my first-run rankings have Machado a half-round ahead of Aaron Judge and Bogaerts, with Judge two spots in front of Bogaerts. Two spots is nothing. Bogaerts' position and reliability are a nice fit alongside the less proven Mullins.

4.50 Yordan Alvarez

I loathe stuff like "steal of the draft" and "great value", so let's just say I suspect DVR and I will end up very happy with this pick. Full disclosure, I now have him as a second rounder. At the time, I completely forgot Alvarez earned outfield eligibility, so when I was eyeballing names to consider, I skipped over him. Derek put him out there, with the note he's outfield eligible.

This is a good lesson: never assume. If DVR has simply mentioned Alvarez, I would have brushed it off. My guess is his outfield eligibility would have come up, probably after I alluded to UT-only and my partner would have respectfully corrected me. That said, don't take anything for granted if it can make a difference in the thought process.

Ultimately, the choice came down to Randy Arozarena and Alvarez, with the need to add power winning out over swipes.

Granted, this pick comes with some risk as Alvarez has battled knee issues. That said, if you want to scare a Red Sox fan on Halloween, dress up like Alvarez.

5.71 Jose Altuve

Oy vey, the word count is already over 1200, which was the informal target. Looks like this will be a two-parter. Eh, it's the offseason, we can run a little long.

As for Altuve, sure, he doesn't run much anymore, but he'll contribute a handful of bags along with a bunch of runs. One of my biggest mistakes is assuming I'll fill in a position later in the draft, thereby passing on a worthy pick earlier. In 2021, that happened at the keystone as I faded second base early, sure I'd get Kolten Wong or Cesar Hernandez. While this was not the reason I didn't fare as well as hoped, it's a mindset I aim to correct.

We bandied around a bunch of names at this spot, including Arozarena, Jose Berrios, Freddy Peralta and Wander Franco. They were all taken, with the Franco sweat lasting until the pick just before ours. I got the sense neither of us loved Altuve, but it felt like the way to go.

6.80 Logan Webb

While I don't want to draw any major conclusions off one draft, starting with a hurler then popping four bats was fine. I'm likely going to further soften my moratorium on pitchers in the first round.

It was clear we wanted another starter here. My suggestions were Webb, Max Fried, Joe Musgrove and Luis Garcia. Derek added Trevor Rogers, Shane McClanahan and Alek Manoah. He was leery on Musgrove, while I preferred McClanahan as an SP3/SP4.

Manoah and Fried were picked. DVR pushed Webb and I saw no reason to push back.

7.101 Alex Bregman

I have very few guys whom I'll categorically avoid. One has been Bregman, at least at market price. For better or worse, I've managed to talk Derek off Bregman in the four or so years we've been doing this. But seventh round, outside of the Top 100? Even I was on board.

Maybe DVR sensed my annual aversion to Bregman, so I brought him up, to which Derek agreed. Though, we were also pondering Anthony Rendon, but ultimately passed for our third Astros' batter. We both agreed having three Houston hitters is not a problem in this format.

8.110 Shane McClanahan

Boom! It was clear to me Derek is a McClanahan fan, in part from working with Eno Sarris, who also likes the Rays' youngster. I am fine with McClanahan, though as mentioned, felt SP2 was a bit aggressive.

Other pitchers discussed were Garcia (adding an Astros arm to the hitting stack) and Zac Gallen, with Logan Gilbert also in the mix.

9.131 Logan Gilbert

One of the charms of this league is there is no ADP. The market prices have not been set. Early on, it's easier to guess the ADP and draft accordingly, After 100 picks or so, it's a free for all. This occurs in all drafts, but it usually happens later, starting around pick 150, though it varies according to the room.

My sense was both Derek and I wanted Gilbert. Some of the picks between 100 and 130 indicated it was time to "get your guy", so we did. SP4 is a little early to take chances, but we both deemed Gilbert to be a top-75 player this time next season.

10.140 Yasmani Grandal

If this were a magazine mock and I was asked to identify my least favorite pick, this would be it. Don't get me wrong; I was on board at the time. In fact, the plan was double tapping backstops in the 10th and 11th. It's just as things turned out, catchers dropped with some decent options available late. Not to mention, fading the position is fine in this league since someone will emerge and be available in free agency after such an early draft.

The decision came down to Grandal versus Daulton Varsho, with the conundrum being trying to predict the order that gave the best chance of grabbing both. Grandal's numbers were subpar, but he turned it on at the end. Varsho also closed the 2021 campaign on a roll, but playing time is an issue since he needs to play in the field to warrant a pick in this range. We'll never know if Grandal would have lasted another 21 picks (probably not), but Varsho was scooped up at pick 150.

I didn't know it at the time, but my current (subject to change) rankings have Varsho as the 64th batter, with Grandal landing 21 spots later. Please note, this is solely among hitters, not overall. Adding in pitchers, Grandal is fine at this spot, but Varsho would have been potentially better. The key word is 'potentially' as his error bar is huge, both in terms of playing time and production.

11.161 Trey Mancini

I had been pushing Mancini for a few rounds. In fact, if I was on my own, he would have been my Round 10 selection. While I won't say DVR finally relented, I'd like to think he was good with this pick, I'm glad he forced me to wait before finally pulling the trigger.

That said, we went through a bevy of names, as there was a decently long wait between our picks. Some of the other candidates were Michael Conforto, Alex Verdugo, C.J. Cron, Willy Adames, Brendan Rodgers and Ke'Bryan Hayes. Verdugo, Cron and Hayes (our favorite) were drafted, making the Mancini choice a bit easier.

12.170 Willy Adames

Let's conclude Part One with Adames. His selection was straightforward, since he was next in line from the previous pick. They'll be plenty of time to dissect his season, with the "getting out of Tampa" narrative front and center. By the numbers, he underperformed with the Rays while exceeding expectations with Milwaukee. This is mostly based on park factor conversions, though there is no accounting for the mental aspect of changing venues.

Tagging in my rankings after the fact, Adames is presently listed as the 100th hitter. I don't know (yet) how many pitchers would be ranked ahead of Adames by virtue of my projections, but 170th overall seems more than fair.

Please check back later in the week for Part Two.