This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous: 3-2-1, 0.11 RWBucks
Season: 92-98-8, -17.38 RWBucks
After a solid start to the playoffs Friday, I'm back with four wagers on Saturday's two NLDS battles, including a sizable bet on one pitcher in particular.
Braves at Brewers, 5:07 p.m. EDT
Starting Pitchers: Max Fried vs. Brandon Woodruff
The Pick: Braves Over 1.5 runs in first 5 innings (-115 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RWBuck
Secondary Pick: Braves over 3.5 total runs (-102 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RWBuck
Woodruff met the Braves once this regular season on July 31 and gave up a good amount of contact, allowing three earned runs on eight hits in 5.1 innings. The right-hander surrendered a double and a homer and also finished the regular season giving up plenty of good wood, as hitters posted a 31.9 percent line-drive rate against him in his final seven starts, a span during which he also generated a 1.6 HR/9. Atlanta finished the last month of the regular season with a .272 average, 10.0 wRAA and .341 wOBA against right-handed pitching on the road as well.
Dodgers at Giants, 9:07 p.m. EDT
Starting Pitchers: Julio Urias vs. Kevin Gausman
The Pick: Urias over 14.5 total outs (-105 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 5 RWBucks
Secondary Pick: Under 24.5 runs, hits and errors (-150 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 2 RWBucks
Urias' spectacular 20-3 record during the regular season included a 2-0 mark against the Giants in their home park, where he also had an outstanding 23:0 K:BB in 17.1 innings in three starts. The left-hander has held current San Fran bats to a collective .196/.265/.273 batting line in 183 career at-bats, and outside of a slight stumble at Coors Field, finished the regular season allowing two earned runs or less in 12 of his last 13 starts. Meanwhile, the Giants were pedestrian at home against southpaws over the second half of the season, posting a .247 average, .295 wOBA and -6.9 wRAA in that split. Meanwhile, with respect to the secondary pick, it's worth noting the Dodgers were the worst team in baseball against righties on the road over the last month of the season and kept that trend up against Logan Webb and righty relievers Tyler Rogers and Camilo Doval by getting shut out on five hits in Game 1 on Friday night.
