This article is part of our MLB Betting series.
Previous article 2-0 +1.70
Overall 147-116-2 (57%) +11.26
With just one game on the board tonight, we have to get creative especially when the favorite is a whopping -230 and a lot of the other bets present no value.
I have dug deep into this game on both sides and have come up with what I think are some great alternative bets for tonight. By the way, I think the total of 7.5 is a complete FUGAZI tonight and I will get into why.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers 8:10 pm EDT
Opening Line Dodgers -200; Total 8
Current Line Dodgers -230; Total 7.5
I actually love the line movement on the total and I will explain why but it ends up giving us value on totals plays and some hitter props.
Team Splits Last 30 Days
Cardinals vs. RHP / Road – wRC+ 120 (#5), wOBA .353 (#4), ISO .203 (#5), HR/FB 21.1% (#1)
Dodgers vs. RHP / Home – wRC+ 150 (#1), wOBA .390 (#1), ISO .301 (#1), 50% FB (#1), HR/FB 20.2% (#1), Hard hit % 39.4% (#1)
Dodgers are 10-0 and 7-2-1 to the over in the last 10 home games. They have scored 5 or more runs in 9 out of those 10 games and averaged 6.3 runs per game.
Cardinals are 10-0 and 7-3 to the over in their last 10 road games. They have scored 4 or more runs in 9 out of 10 averaging 7.5 runs per game.
In Wainwright's seven starts this year as a road underdog, 6 out of 7 have gone over the total. The combined runs in those games was 13, 19, 11, 10, 16, 5, and 15. The bottom line is that Wainwright feasted at home and vs. bad teams on the road this year. When he was a road underdog, he struggled but they were 4-3 in those 7 games winning the last 4 in a row.
In Scherzer's 5 home starts with the Dodgers, all have been a total of 7 runs or more. The opponents have scored at least 3 or more runs in 4 out of 5.
Based on everything I see, I have a hard time thinking that some runs are being scored tonight. The 7.5 total is completely based on public perception on Wainwright and Scherzer pitching deep into the game and it being like 3-2 after six ininngs. I see a short hook for both pitchers and with both offenses being on fire the past month and hitting a ton of flyballs, I like for some homeruns also.
BET – Wainwright under 3.5 strikeouts (+135 DraftKings) for 0.5 RW buck
BET – Dodgers over 4.5 runs (+100 BetMGM) for 1 RW buck
BET – Dodgers -1.5 runs F5 (+115 BetMGM) for 0.5 RW buck
BET – Over 7.5 runs (-110) for 1 RW bucks
Secondary Plays (I would recommend only doing this as a cluster bet meaning you have to bet all separate for it to work; the goal is to hit on 2 minimum and hope that maybe you can hit on 3 or all)
BET – To Hit a HR and Dodgers Win (SugarHouse/BetRivers) all for 0.25 RW buck
Mookie Betts +425
Corey Seager +475
Trea Turner +550
Justin Turner +550
The Dodgers have a 50% fly ball rate and 20% HR/FB in the last 30 days at home against right-handed pitchers. Folks, that is insanity.
If Wainwright gets knocked out early, which I am betting on happening, this ends up in the Cardinals bullpen which is not very good. The Cards pen has allowed a 40% FB rate over the last 30 days on the road. They have a 4.72 xFIP which is 10th worst in baseball and the 7th lowest K/9.