MLB Barometer: Risers and Fallers

I'm not sure I've ever met a stat with an "X" in it that I didn't like. There's a beautiful simplicity in how a good X stat mirrors a results-based stat we're all familiar with while giving us greater insight about a player's underlying process. Take xBA (expected batting average), for example, which can tell us things like, "Kyle Tucker may be a .278 hitter this year, but he's hitting the ball like a .308 hitter."

Such stats do of course have their limitations. You might see frequent warnings about how X stats aren't intended to be predictive, though to be fair to them, results-based stats like raw batting average aren't predictive either. Tucker's .308 xBA just means that his contact has been typical of a .308 hitter, not that he'll hit .308 next month or next year. Likewise, though, his .278 average just means that he's reached base via a hit in 27.8 percent of his at-bats so far this year, not that he'll continue to do the same going forward.

The main limitations for X stats is that they're simply not built to include everything. xBA and xSLG, for example, look at launch angle and exit velocity, but don't currently include spray angle. xFIP, my favorite X stat on the pitcher side, measures a pitcher's performance by his strikeout, walk and groundball rates, but doesn't include any other information about batted-ball quality beyond whether it was hit on the mound.

Despite those flaws, I find myself turning to those numbers constantly. The following tables display the biggest underachievers in terms of xBA and xFIP, hinting at a few names who may see an uptick in performance over the final month or who could potentially go undervalued during next year's draft season:

There are a lot of talented names on that list. The aforementioned Tucker in particular is someone I expect to be very high on during draft season, while Conforto and Soler's down seasons look a lot less worrisome in this light.

Some of the names on this list, like Arrieta, Corbin and Lopez, have been having poor seasons, which may look even worse due to factors outside their control. Others, like Rodriguez, Gilbert and Paddack, appear to be having perfectly fine seasons that have been made to look bad due mainly to luck. We shouldn't consider the gaps here to be entirely luck-related, as managing contact quality is a skill that isn't captured by xFIP, but the odds are pretty strong that these pitchers' ERAs should move towards their xFIPs in the future, making them great targets next year, or perhaps late-season pickups this year if they've been dropped due to their high ERAs.

Many of the names in the above two tables could find themselves as Risers in this column over the next few weeks if their results improve to match their expected numbers. For now, we'll take a look at a handful of players whose results have most impressed or disappointed over the past few weeks.

RISERS

Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Yankees: Few players' highs are as high as Stanton's. Through the end of July, he was having a merely good season, hitting .254/.353/.449 with 16 homers in 351 trips to the plate. His 122 wRC+ up to that point would have represented the third-lowest mark of his 12-year career and his lowest since 2016, something that perhaps shouldn't come as a surprise for a player on the wrong side of 30 with his injury history. He's torn the cover off the ball in August, however, slashing .319/.404/.626 in 26 games while striking out just 20.2 percent of the time. He now owns a 27.0 percent strikeout rate on the year, his second-best mark in his last seven seasons. Not only is he making more contact than usual, he hasn't sacrificed any power to get there. He homered in four straight games last week and eight times over the course of the month, while producing a 17.1 percent barrel rate.

Wander Franco, SS, Rays: Franco was hardly the first highly touted rookie to struggle initially upon making his big-league debut this season, and it's remarkable just to be debuting at age 20 regardless of results, but his .220/.283/.349 line through his first 27 games was nonetheless a disappointment. He's a well-rounded player, but making an elite amount of contact is his carrying tool (as evidenced by his 7.9 percent career strikeout rate in the minors), so his merely good 20.8 percent strikeout rate over that stretch was rather disappointing. He's suddenly figured things out, however, as he's slashed his strikeout rate to 8.3 percent over his last 25 games. His slash line improved dramatically with the extra contact, sitting at .333/.394/.556 over that stretch. He's still primarily helpful in the batting average category, as he has a modest six homers and two steals through 52 games at the MLB level, but seeing him already dramatically improve so early in his big-league career is quite exciting and raises the question of what improvement could be coming next.

Will Smith, C, Dodgers: Smith had a case as the best offensive catcher in the league heading into the season. Among backstops with at least 300 plate appearances over the previous two years, he ranked second in on-base percentage (.363), first in slugging (.574) and first in wRC+ (144). In that context, his .252/.356/.443 slash line (good for a 119 wRC+) in the first half counted as a mild disappointment. Since the break, however, he's been on a tear, slashing .299/.420/.654 while hitting 11 homers in 32 games. Only Salvador Perez, who's homered 17 times in the second half, can beat him in the home run category, but Smith's considerably better on-base ability means his 183 second-half wRC+ easily beats Perez's 161 mark. While Perez's amazing power display is almost certain to see him finish as the top-earning catcher per our earned auction values, Smith could have his supporters as the top catcher off the board next season. His case will be bolstered by the fact that he's very much still in his prime, as he'll be heading into his age-27 season, while the rest of the top five in earned auction value at the position (Perez, J.T. Realmuto, Buster Posey and, surprisingly, Mike Zunino) will all be on the wrong side of 30.

Sandy Alcantara, SP, Marlins: I tend to value strikeouts more than most, so I didn't buy into the hype surrounding Alcantara during draft season. His age (25) and velocity were certainly interesting, and his career 3.71 ERA heading into the year was very respectable, but I was turned off by his low 19.2 percent strikeout rate and was uncertain he could maintain that kind of ERA without adding a fair amount of whiffs. Through the end of July, I was wrong about the ERA but right about the lack of strikeouts, as he helped out fantasy teams with his 3.29 ERA but struck out a modest 21.3 percent of opposing batters. The strikeouts have suddenly arrived in August, however, as he's whiffed 30.2 percent of opposing batters over six starts. That hasn't come with a corresponding increase in walks, as he's instead trimmed his walk rate to an excellent 5.7 percent for the month. His ERA in those six outings sits at 3.18 even with a 10-run implosion at Coors Field on Aug. 6. An increase in sliders appears to be part of the reason for the added strikeouts. He'd never thrown the pitch more than 27.3 percent of the time in any start prior to the start of August, but he's throwing it at least a third of the time in three of his starts this month.

Kyle Freeland, SP, Rockies: Freeland was never as good as his 2.85 ERA in 2018, but he was never as bad as his 6.73 ERA the following year, either. He cut that number to 4.33 last season and has slashed it still further to 4.17 this year. That's good for a park-adjusted 88 ERA, a number that ties Hyun Jin Ryu and comes in a hair behind Lucas Giolito (87 ERA-), though raw stats are what matter in the vast majority of fantasy leagues, so Coors Field has kept Freeland largely uninteresting for fantasy purposes. That's especially true given his sub-par 21.1 percent strikeout rate, though he's shown a sudden uptick in that category in his last seven starts. He struck out 27.0 percent of opposing batters while walking just 3.1 percent over that stretch, leading to a 2.79 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. That run becomes even more impressive when considering that the seven starts include three at Coors Field plus two against the Dodgers, one against the Giants and one against the Padres. Increased curveball usage looks like part of the reason for his success, as he's turned to the pitch 23.7 percent of the time in his last seven starts after using it just 13.4 percent of the time prior to that run. The pitch is a relatively new one for Freeland, as he debuted it last season, but it ranks second-best on a per-pitch basis among pitchers who have thrown at least 90 innings this season per FanGraphs' pitch values.

Edmundo Sosa, 2B/SS, Cardinals: Sosa wasn't much more than a fringe prospect and entered the year with just 13 MLB plate appearances on his resume, none of which came last season. He wasn't considered relevant enough for us to write an outlook for him prior to the season. Through the end of July, there wasn't much reason to think about him, as he hit a thoroughly unremarkable .242/.318/.317 across 181 plate appearances, mostly appearing off the bench unless a Cardinals infielder had a long-term injury. That's suddenly changed in August, as he's hit .392/.483/.667 in 21 games this month. He's worked his way into a regular role, starting five straight games this week, largely due to the struggles of Paul DeJong, whose 89 wRC+ on the season is a near match for his 86 wRC+ from last year. Sosa's .439 BABIP in August indicates that his strong recent numbers aren't sustainable, though his 7.0 percent barrel rate this month is more than double his 3.1 percent mark through the end of July. It looks like there's at least something here, and he at the very least has found himself with regular at-bats, which makes him worth a look in deeper leagues. 

FALLERS

Jeff McNeil, 2B/3B/OF, Mets: Is it possible we'd collectively been overrating McNeil? The only particularly notable skill he's shown is the ability to make a ton of contact, as he struck out just 12 percent of the time en route to a .319 batting average prior to this season but averaged a modest 18 homers and seven steals per 600 plate appearances. That's certainly a productive player, but there are reasons to suspect that his excellent batting average was propped up by his .342 BABIP, as he didn't manage an xBA higher than .280 in any season. His batting average has cratered this year, sitting at just .247, which leaves him with next to nothing to offer fantasy teams, as he's homered just six times in 92 while stealing two bases. He's been particularly poor over his last 25 games, slashing .176/.231/.247. McNeil's strikeout rate has jumped to 17.6 percent over that stretch; that's a perfectly fine number, but when you only really do one thing well, you have to do it really well, and a merely above-average amount of contact doesn't cut it. His contact quality has also been quite poor, as he owns a 1.4 percent barrel rate over that stretch, down significantly even from the already low 6.0 percent barrel rate he produced up to that point.

Andrew McCutchen, OF, Phillies: McCutchen has had a very up-and-down season. His campaign started terribly, as he posted a 59 wRC+ in April, but he's shown vintage form at times, posting a 168 wRC+ in the month of June. The 34-year-old missed the first 10 days of August with left knee inflammation, however, and he hasn't looked at all right since his return. He's hit a miserable .137/.214/.216 over 16 games, striking out 30.4 percent of the time. His contact has been not merely infrequent but also poor, as he's barreling the ball just 5.9 percent since his return after posting a 10.2 percent barrel rate prior to the injury. On the season as a whole, he's hitting just .221 while striking out at a 23.9 percent clip, both of which represent career worsts. There may be at least a bit of bad luck affecting his numbers, but his .239 xBA isn't a particularly encouraging number, either.

Eugenio Suarez, 3B, Reds: In a sense, it's tough to truly call Suarez a "faller," as he's been down all year, but things are seemingly only getting worse for the third baseman. After hitting a very poor .175/.256/.372 in the first half, his numbers have dipped still further in the second half, as he's hitting .156/.256/.349. His BABIP has been below .200 both before and after the break, and while that undoubtedly reflects at least some bad luck, a low BABIP is to be expected given his batted-ball profile, which contains a lot of weakly hit flyballs. His average launch angle of 17.7 degrees is the 20th-highest mark among qualified hitters, which works when you crush the ball but doesn't work alongside a below-average 38.5 percent hard-hit rate. Only six players in the top 20 in launch angle having a lower mark than his 37.7 percent hard-hit rate, but all of those guys strike out at a better-than-average clip, while Suarez has whiffed 30.8 percent of the time. Hitting the ball infrequently and making weak contact in the air when you do manage to touch the ball is a very sustainable way to struggle. He's deservedly seen his playing time slashed since Mike Moustakas returned from his heel injury, making it easier for fantasy teams to cut him, which seems to be the right move in most formats.

Taijuan Walker, SP, Mets: Walker probably wasn't as good as his 2.50 ERA in the first half suggested, as it took a .249 BABIP to get him there, but that number still came with some solid peripherals. He struck out 24.1 percent of opposing batters (up from his average of 21.4 percent through the end of the 2020 season) while walking 7.9 percent. Things haven't gone nearly as well for him in his eight starts thus far in the second half, as he's struggled to a 6.81 ERA despite a .243 BABIP. His strikeouts have suddenly evaporated, as he's struck out just 16.4 percent of opposing batters. Walker has whiffed one or fewer batters in three of those starts and has struck out more than four just twice. He at least hasn't lost any velocity, so there seemingly aren't any long-term concerns about his health. He may simply be slipping back to his usual level, as he's been unimpressive in the strikeout department throughout his career.