This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous: 0-3-1, -4.00 RW Bucks
Season: 47-49-5, -4.47 RW Bucks
After a rough Wednesday that included a Padres ninth-inning meltdown against the Athletics, which sunk a moneyline pick at plus money, I'll try to bounce back with a pair of selections from Thursday's split slate, beginning with some matinee action.
Red Sox at Tigers, 1:10 p.m. EDT
Starting Pitchers: Martin Perez vs. Tarik Skubal
The Pick: Over 9.5 runs (-110) for 1 RWBuck
Secondary Pick: Tigers Over 2.5 runs in first 5 innings (+104) for 1 RWBuck
I'm going right back to the well with the Tigers despite the fact they were part of Wednesday's letdown, as they have another vulnerable lefty in their sights in the form of Boston's Martin Perez. The veteran southpaw has looked his usual middling self this season with a 7-7 mark, 4.56 ERA and 1.49 WHIP while posting a pedestrian 19.1 percent strikeout rate. Detroit will roll out what could well be an all-righty lineup with its numerous switch hitters, while Perez has allowed a .301 average and 29 XBH to righty bats this season. Moreover, the Tigers own a .301 average and .372 wOBA against lefties at home since July 1.
Skubal has been up and down as a young pitcher is prone to be, and his 6-10 record reflects as much. He's had a bit of a rough go of it lately, pitching to a 5.86 ERA and 2.9 HR/9 across his last five starts. Many more of his troubles have come on the road, however, as he owns a 3.74 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 1.3 HR/9 at Comerica Park, as opposed to respective 5.92, 1.42 and 3.6 figures in those categories when traveling. He nevertheless gets quite a tough draw in a veteran Red Sox team Thursday that's highly capable of exploiting his tendencies to let the ball leave the park.
The two starters here have enough questions attached to that I think we'll see a solid amount of runs scored in the hot afternoon temperatures.
Indians at Blue Jays, 7:07 p.m. EDT
Starting Pitchers: Triston McKenzie vs. Ross Stripling
The Pick: Over 9.5 runs (+100) for 1 RW Buck
Secondary Pick: Blue Jays -1.5 (+100) for 1 RW Buck
This total seems very manageable when considering the two offenses at play, as well as the propensity of each starting pitcher to give up the long ball. McKenzie and Stripling have allowed 33 homers between them already this season, Rogers Centre is certainly offense-friendly and Toronto boasts the MLB's fourth-best run-line winning percentage (.562). With both these wagers at plus money, taking the plunge is well worth it.
