MLB Betting: Futures Update

MLB Betting: Futures Update

This article is part of our MLB Betting series.

I am taking a break from the weekly Monday Best Bets, to give you an updated "Futures" article which will hit each month. I am fascinated by the value that can be had on these and how you can really get ahead of the market.

*Side note – I was 3-0 last Monday bringing my overall record to 6-3.

AL MVP

Mike Trout +225

Shohei Ohtani +1000 (+2350 Opening Day, was +5000 in some places during March)

Alex Bregman +1300

Byron Buxton +1500 (huge jump)

Jose Ramirez +1500

Other Notables

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +1800 (I am all over this until it falls into triple digits)

J.D. Martinez +2000

I still lean Ohtani because what he is doing hitting and pitching is historic.

AL CY YOUNG

Gerrit Cole +300

Shane Bieber +400

Tyler Glasnow +650 (down from +875)

Lucas Giolito +900

Lance Lynn +1000

This still feels like a two-horse race between Cole and Bieber and we were treated to their duel on Saturday, but Glasnow is legit if the Rays can climb to the top of the AL East. This race still needs to play out more. We should have a better feel for it in a month.

Other Notables

Eduardo Rodriguez's odds have gone from +5000 to +3300.

NL MVP

Ronald Acuna Jr +375

Juan Soto +850

Mookie Betts +900

Fernando Tatis Jr +1000

Jacob deGrom +1500

Other Notables

Justin Turner +3300

Trent Grisham +8000

deGrom's odds have gone from +4000 to +1500 after Friday night's masterful performance. The key is whether or not voters will side with a pitcher for MVP. I would still get in at +1500.

Tatis down being +1000 after his huge weekend against the Dodgers is also in play for me.

Turner and Grisham are sneaky long-shot bets on the two best teams in the National League.

NL CY YOUNG

Jacob deGrom +275

Corbin Burnes +600 (opened at +4000)

Trevor Bauer +750

Max Scherzer +1000

Walker Buehler +1000

Other notables

Yu Darvish +1600

At this point, deGrom is the uber chalk and betting on anyone else is just throwing money away.  Although, Darvish at +1600 is very interesting if the Padres get close in the standings to the Dodgers.

I'd keep an eye on the other Dodgers starters who don't have odds right now like Dustin May and Julio Urias.

WORLD SERIES

We are about 15 percent into the baseball season and a lot of teams have started off slow, so their World Series odds have not moved much. On the flip side, teams like the Royals, Mariners, and Giants have gotten off to hot starts, but their odds have not moved much either.

The biggest move in World Series odds has been the Red Sox who have started out 14-9 and gone from +5000 to +2000.

The Yankees have fallen from +350 to +650. While I would still think they are a solid playoff team, their overall chances to win the World Series have dampened in my eyes.

I still think the Astros +1600 (COVID-related bad start), Rays +2500 and the Brewers at +4000 are good fliers. Remember it is not about getting it exactly, but building up enough equity to where you can hedge on another team or flip the ticket on a site like Prop Swap.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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