MLB Betting: Thursday's Best Bets

MLB Betting: Thursday's Best Bets

This article is part of our MLB Betting series.

Previous day: 0-2, -1.5 RWBucks (one rainout)

Season: 7-12, -3.07 RWBucks

The best bet gets rained out Wednesday and the two sides no-show. Both the Rockies and Phillies allowed a run three batters into the bottom of the first, and the games were over. Faith in starting pitchers isn't much when the teams behind them don't score.

As I mentioned, it can be hard to take punches in the face every day. Were I not writing, I'd probably take the next few days off, read something unrelated to sports — "The Boys on the Bus" has been staring at me for way too long — cook a few meals. It's an approximation of spring here in the tri-state area, and even in a pandemic you can get outside and enjoy that a bit. I never get far from baseball, to be sure, but sometimes I do need to get away from the gambling side.

When you're on a losing streak, never feel like you have to force it. There are 180-odd slates a year with an assortment of options each day, and that's just baseball. If you need a day or a week off, just take it. I have a hunch the bookmakers will be here when you get back.

Me, I'm back at the desk and focused on one number: seven. Just seven percent of the schedule has been played. The Yankees are 5-7. The Braves are 4-8. I can be 7-12.

I largely ignore day games in this space, because writing them up isn't going to be helpful for most readers. Even if I write it early and we post it early, the chance that most people will see it before, say, a 1 p.m. EDT start isn't great. With a smaller slate Thursday, 12 games in total and just five night games, let's squeeze in an earlier one and see if it helps anyone.

2 p.m. White Sox (Lynn) -148 over Indians (Civale). Aaron Civale is a pitcher I'm looking to fade, someone whose underlying performance and underlying skills don't really match the baseball-card numbers. He's only faced the Tigers so far, pitching through the seventh twice, allowing four runs over the two starts, and getting incredible run support in two wins. Civale has allowed just two hits on 30 balls in play, and five hits on 33 batted balls in total. Lance Lynn won't have to match Carlos Rodon's no-hitter to win this one. 1 RWBuck.

7 p.m. Rays (Hill) -215 over Rangers (Lyles). The Rangers, who looked helpless at home against the Padres, have picked off the Rays twice this week, and have held Tampa Bay to five runs in the first three games of this series. The Rays' pitching has been thinned by injuries, but their offense has been fairly healthy; they're just not hitting in this series. Jordan Lyles to the rescue! Lyles's Fielding Independent ERAs (FIP), since 2018, are 4.08, 4.64, 5.95 and 6.14. This is a pitcher on his way out of the league. In his own way, so is Rich Hill, though he's taking his sweet time about it. With the better team and the better starter, I'll lay the big number instead of grabbing a -1.5 with a shaky offense. 1.5 RWBucks.

10 p.m. Rockies (Gomber) F5 +210 over Dodgers (Urias). Let's run at this problem from a different angle, getting a decent left-hander in Austin Gomber against a Dodgers team that has had a pronounced platoon split in recent years, one that has persisted into 2021 (.393 wOBA against righties, .331 against lefties). .5 RWBucks.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Joe Sheehan
Joe Sheehan has been a contributing writer to RotoWire since its inception and can frequently be heard as a guest on RotoWire Fantasy Sports Today on Sirius XM Radio. A founding member of Baseball Prospectus, Sheehan writes the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, at JoeSheehan.com.
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