MLB Barometer: Risers & Fallers

The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational drafts are all but complete. As of writing, all but two of the 29 leagues have finished drafting, and those two are very close to the end. That means we have enough data regarding which players the pool of TGFBI drafters are collectively high or low on. It's one thing to read that I or any other so-called expert is particularly in or out on a player, but it's another to learn which players the entire pool of supposed sharks love or hate. I'll jump right into that data for this introduction, comparing TGFBI average draft positions to overall NFBC average draft positions in March, before moving on to discuss a handful of players who have risen or fallen based on recent news.

*Framber Valdez was the top player in this group, but I didn't include him because the the news about his injury came right in the middle of this period, so his ADP isn't representative of his stock on March 1 nor his current stock.

The first thing that stands out with these names is just how pitcher-heavy this group is, as starting pitchers fill each of the first seven spots. I'm not sure if this is the TGFBI pool telling us that pitchers in general are drafted too low or if it might have more to do with the specifics of this contest. Pitchers in general frequently get pushed up in leagues with an overall component such as TGFBI, though that also describes many NFBC contests. Pitchers often move up or down collectively by several spots based on the dynamics of a given draft, and it's possible many TGFBI leagues just so happened to have runs on pitchers early that everyone felt that had to jump in on.

Another potential dynamic here: I know that I personally tend to wait on pitchers more in leagues where I feel like I'm among the best-informed drafters, banking on the fact that I can grab a few of my favorite sleepers late. In leagues where I don't think I'm any better than the middle of the pack, I have no reason to expect those sleepers will fall, so I wind up taking more pitchers early. I wouldn't be surprised if other drafters have similar approaches and felt pressured to secure a respectable pitching staff early on.

In the later rounds, there's less rhyme and reason regarding who rises to the top, though Pham, Kim and Cain share some similarities. All three have the potential to provide a fair number of steals, but each comes with multiple types of risk. Pham has plenty of injury risk as well as age risk, and possibly also playing-time risk as well. Kim has that same playing-time risk on a crowded Padres roster as well as the risk that comes from the fact that he's played in Korea his entire life. Cain comes with age risk, some potential injury risk, possible playing-time risk following the signing of Jackie Bradley Jr. and the risk that comes with his 2020 opt-out. TGFBI drafters proved willing to take on that sort of risk to pick up late steals, a strategy I apparently agree with given that I selected both Kim and Cain.

With the previous list being so full of pitchers, it's no surprise this list is populated exclusively by hitters. It's particularly interesting to note the distribution of positions. The first four players are all first basemen, while five of the 13 players listed here are catchers. Fading catchers is something that a large number of fantasy analysts advocate for, so see that reflected here makes perfect sense. I'm a fan of taking the very best catchers like J.T. Realmuto, but the lesser backstops don't necessarily provide enough of an advantage over the catchers you can find late in a draft to make up for the fact that you're missing out on other positions in an early round.

The collective fading of the top first basemen is a bit puzzling to me. We do seem to be in a rather unusual year with regards to how the player pool is shaping up at different positions. Shortstop is incredibly deep at the top, while first base is as shallow as I can remember it. It seems like it would logically follow that you should push up the top first basemen, something I did by grabbing Jose Abreu with pick 36, but the pool of TGFBI drafters at large clearly disagrees. It's possible the top first basemen have been pushed up too much. While we might not have the same number of team-carrying sluggers at the position that we're used to, there are plenty of perfectly serviceable options available in the middle rounds at the position. Guys I'd be happy to draft like Eric Hosmer, Rhys Hoskins and Trey Mancini all go outside the top 15 at the position.

Not all of the information above will be relevant to your league, as the dynamics within any given draft can do strange things to a pick order. I wouldn't advocate for throwing out NFBC ADP in favor of TGFBI ADP, as the pool of NFBC is made up of typically well-informed drafters and makes for a much larger sample size, but I do think poking around with the ADP from industry leagues such as TGFBI can serve as a useful supplement.

RISERS

Myles Straw, OF, Astros: Straw's stock has absolutely soared in March. Through the end of February, his NFBC ADP sat at 424.6. Since March first, it's come in at 286.3. Some of that helium comes from the fact that Straw is reportedly in the mix to lead off, alongside Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve. Leading off in front of a depleted but still very talented Astros lineup should provide a big boost to Straw's run total. Even if he doesn't lead off, however, the jump in stock seems deserved. Fantasy drafters are desperate to find late sources of speed, and Straw is among the best out there. He's stolen 16 bases in 224 career plate appearances at the highest level, the equivalent of 42.9 steals over a full season of 600 plate appearances. He could even blow past 600 plate appearances given the lack of obvious alternatives in center field for the Astros. Of course, Straw will have to hit to remain a regular, and it's not entirely clear that he can do that. His career .246/.327/.322 slash line gives off some Mallex Smith vibes. Unless Houston brings in another option in center, however, the offensive bar for Straw to remain a starter should remain low, making him a strong choice as a late source of steals.

Andres Gimenez, 2B/3B/SS, Cleveland: Gimenez hasn't been officially confirmed as Cleveland's starting shortstop, but the news that his top competitor, Amed Rosario, is beginning to take reps in the outfield sure seems to indicate that he'll be the primary option at the position, with Rosario filling a utility role. Gimenez comes with plenty of risk, as he produced a barely above-average slash line in 154 games at the Double-A level before skipping Triple-A entirely for his big-league debut last year. He didn't excel at the plate as a rookie, but his .263/.333/.398 line was good for a slightly above-average 104 wRC+. That's really all he needs to do to justify an everyday role given his good defensive reputation at shortstop. He can't be relied on for anything more than a decent batting average and won't hit many more than 10 homers, but he's projected for something in the range of 25 to 30 steals if given a true starting workload. That's a very valuable fantasy option, especially given his eligibility at up to three spots in most setups.

Tejay Antone, SP/RP, Reds: Antone has had quite a strange career arc. He was a rather unremarkable pitcher in the minors, posting a solid 3.74 ERA but a poor 17.4 percent strikeout rate through the end of 2019. A sudden velocity spike changed his profile completely, and he debuted last season at age 26 with a 2.80 ERA and a 31.9 percent strikeout rate in four starts and nine relief appearances. He was having a strong spring, showing upper-90s heat while striking out 13 batters in 7.2 frames and allowing just one earned run, before leaving with a groin strain in his most recent outing, but the injury appears to be a minor one and isn't expected to force him to miss a start. While Antone has tantalizing upside given his new and improved stuff, he does still have role questions, though those could be sorting themselves out. Sonny Gray will miss the start of the season with back spasms, allowing both Antone and Michael Lorenzen to open in the rotation. Antone also has a back door to fantasy relevance via the closer position, a the Reds' top contestants for that role are either working through injuries (Amir Garrett and Lucas Sims) or struggling significantly in spring action (Sean Doolittle). 

Jose Leclerc, RP, Rangers: Quick! Name literally any other Rangers reliever. If you're a dedicated fantasy player but not a Rangers fan, you might be able to name Jonathan Hernandez, but that's potentially it. Hernandez, who appeared to be Leclerc's top closer competition, has been shut down for at least four weeks with a sprained UCL. There's incredibly little in terms of proven talent left to challenge Leclerc for the job. Joely Rodriguez is at least slightly interesting but has been battling ankle issues and hasn't gotten into a game. Demarcus Evans has potential but has thrown just four big-league innings and is dealing with a lat injury. Non-roster invitees Ian Kennedy and Matt Bush both have closing experience, but Kennedy struggled to a 9.00 ERA last year while Bush has been out of the big leagues since 2018 and is a 35-year-old coming off Tommy John surgery. Leclerc isn't the most trustworthy option himself, as he struggled to a 4.33 ERA in 2019 before missing most of last season with shoulder troubles, but the job seems to be his almost by default. The Rangers aren't likely to produce many save chances, but Leclerc may not even have to be all that good to earn the vast majority of them. His 1.56 ERA and 38.1 percent strikeout rate from 2018 demonstrate his upside, but he doesn't need to get anywhere close to that to be a passable mid-tier closer.

Maikel Franco, 3B, Orioles: Franco has been rightly considered an afterthought for most of draft season, as he's not a particularly good player and didn't have a job. His recent signing with the Orioles doesn't change the former fact, though it at least changes the latter. There's arguably no better landing spot for Franco, as he'll play in a hitter-friendly home park and won't have much competition for starts. It shouldn't be difficult for him to surpass Rio Ruiz (career 77 wRC+) and Pat Valaika (career 70 wRC+). Franco is far from an elite hitter himself, but he's hit .270 or better in two of the last three seasons and has three 20-homer seasons on his resume. His main weaknesses (a lack of walks and poor defense) don't matter much in most fantasy leagues, leaving him as a perfectly acceptable budget option at the corner infield spot.

Daniel Ponce de Leon, SP, Cardinals: Ponce de Leon hasn't been officially named as a member of the Cardinals' rotation, but the path to that job suddenly seems quite clear. What looked like a battle for just one rotation spot in St. Louis is suddenly a battle for up to three, with Miles Mikolas shut down for at least a week with a shoulder issue and Kwang Hyun Kim dealing with back problems. Ponce de Leon should stand a strong chance of being one of the top three options in a battle that includes Carlos Martinez, John Gant and Johan Oviedo. He's having a good spring, posting a 2.35 ERA and an 8:4 K:BB in 7.2 innings. Walks have been an issue for Ponce de Leon throughout his 114.1 career innings at the highest level, as he owns a 12.3 percent walk rate, but his strong 26.8 percent strikeout rate has generally offset that, leading to a 3.78 ERA. He's certainly an imperfect option, but he's a lot more interesting than he previously looked now that more starting jobs are at least temporarily available.

FALLERS

David Price, SP, Dodgers: It was generally assumed that Price would be a member of the Dodgers' rotation this season, as he's been a starter in 97 percent of his appearances at the MLB level. The Dodgers have incredible depth throughout their roster, however, and their rotation is no exception. There's no way Price, Clayton Kershaw, Trevor Bauer, Walker Buehler, Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May can all start at the same time, and it doesn't appear as though Price's seniority will be enough to exempt him from a swingman role. He'll still make a fair number of starts this season, but there's no guarantee he opens the campaign in the rotation, and he said he's open to being used however the Dodgers intend to use him. The veteran lefty should still throw enough innings this season to be interesting in most formats, but it may be tough to roster him in shallower leagues if he's stuck in a long-relief role to open the season. Questions about Price's role now join concerns about his age (35) and worries about how well his arm will hold up after he opted out of last season.

Stephen Strasburg, SP, Nationals: In news that should surprise no one, Strasburg left his Sunday start against the Astros with an injury. While this particular issue, which has been diagnosed as a plantaris strain in his left calf, may not require an extended absence, Strasburg's injury history provides plenty of reason to worry. He averaged just 24.3 starts from 2015 to 2018 and made just two last year before being shut down with carpal tunnel neuritis, an issue which eventually required surgery. There were already worries about Strasburg's ability to hold up this season coming off of that procedure, and while it's a positive that his latest injury seems completely unrelated, it's an obvious negative that he now has two potential issues to keep an eye on. Strasburg could still provide strong numbers on a per-inning basis, but the floor here is lower than ever since it's just not clear how much longer his body will hold up.

Lorenzo Cain, OF, Brewers: Cain's readiness for Opening Day is in doubt, despite some hints of optimism from the Brewers, as he isn't scheduled to make his spring debut until Saturday, less than two weeks before the regular season kicks off. He's been battling a quadriceps issue since the start of camp, and while the team has called the issue a minor one, their management of him suggests otherwise. It's possible the team is just being extremely cautious with Cain, as he's turning 35 in April and may not be in the best shape of his life after opting out just five games into last season. There's no reason to expect that kind of caution will go away during the season, however, and the recent signing of Jackie Bradley Jr. means the Brewers can afford to give Cain more than his fair share of days off. Given that Cain struggled to an 83 wRC+ in his latest full season, it's also possible he loses playing time for non-injury reasons. The steals upside that fantasy managers crave is still here, but Cain only gets riskier every day he's out of the lineup.

Amir Garrett, RP, Reds: Garrett looked like the most likely closer candidate in Cincinnati heading into camp with Raisel Iglesias now an Angel, as Lucas Sims was battling elbow troubles and Sean Doolittle had clearly fallen off in the twilight of his career. Garrett has still yet to pitch in a game this spring, however, as he works through some forearm soreness. He's been able to throw bullpen sessions recently, so it's possible he shakes this off and claims the role once regular-season play begins, but forearm issues are among the most worrying problems for a pitcher to be dealing with, so there's plenty of risk here. There's additional risk in the way Tejay Antone has been pitching, as it's entirely possible the Reds end up turning to him to close games if and when he's no longer needed in the rotation.