Rounding Third: Draft Season Updates

This article is part of our Rounding Third series.

Draft season has shifted into overdrive in our community. LABR finished their salary cap drafts (a.k.a. "auctions") this past weekend — AL, NL, Mixed; the FSGA drafts were completed the week before; the Tout Wars Draft-and-Hold and the new 12-team ToutWars snake draft started up last week, the latter being a live draft last Tuesday; RazzSlam started up today; and many of the TGFBI slow drafts have been completed — my league has two more rounds remaining. We still have the ToutWars salary cap drafts on March 20-21, the ToutWars 15-team Mixed League draft is Tuesday night this week, and, of course, all the NFBC Main Events still are forthcoming, but we're in the thick of it now. Here's a few observations from TGFBI and RazzSlam, plus a parting shot.

I. TGFBI

I've done my share of draft reviews, and will do so again in the future, but I'm going to approach it a little differently this time. I'll still post my team so far, but I want to focus instead on a few macro observations rather than just my team. If you want to see pick-by-pick analysis of my team, check out this Twitter thread, where I broadcasted all of my picks.

• The importance of draft position: I'm drafting in the 2nd/14th slot in this 15-team snake draft format, and this is the first time that I've held an early slot this season. Previously, my earliest position was eighth (though I'm now drafting sixth in RazzSlam, which I'll get to next). In a 15-team, one can easily see the consequence of the early draft slot, especially as it pertains to starting pitching. With the way pitching has been flying off the board in NFBC-style drafts, if you have an early pick, you'd better plan ahead to figure out how you want to attack pitching if you don't jump on Jacob deGrom or Gerrit Cole early. You'll have to decide whether Clayton Kershaw, Brandon Woodruff or Zac Gallen is worth a second- or early third-round pick, or whether you want to try an alternate approach to the pitching categories.  That's especially true in the NFBC and TGFBI, where there's an overall contest in addition to the goal to win your league.

  That's only the start of the issues you face on the ends. I think the bigger issue is the constant battle between when to "reach" and when to take value, at least in terms of ADP and the greater perception of the player. Ariel Cohen had a great article a couple of years ago about the concept while advocating for a middle slot in big snake drafts like this. When you're on the end, you'll have to wait 20-plus picks after taking the second of your pair of picks, meaning you're far more beholden to the whims of your league starting the next run of a position or commodity like saves or stolen bases.
• Perceived Value Picks: I've found myself taking more "value" picks than I'd prefer, rather than just taking my guys, and it's a little discomforting. Notably, among these picks was Alex Bregman at 4.14 (59 overall), Dylan Moore at 11.2 (152) and Jake Cronenworth at 21.2 (302), though the latter I'm more enthusiastic about taking for that cost. Normally I'd much rather ride-or-die with "my guys," but sometimes a format will encourage value-taking more often — I'd say that's more true the deeper you get. After all, even though we fancy ourselves as more informed than the average player, maybe even the room, our error bar is wide, and letting the market decide a pick or two can be helpful. I think drafting in the second slot encouraged some of that value-taking.
• Waiting for Godot, er, Saves: In my latest draft, I took Liam Hendriks and enjoyed the roster-build. That was a 12-team league, though, where I had a somewhat central draft position (ninth), not a 15-team league. I had the chance to take Hendriks in the fifth round — I took Luke Voit instead at 5.2 and Hendriks went at 5.5. I then knew that the closer run would take part in earnest in the beginning of the seventh round, yet still took another hitter at 7.2. Sure enough, six more closers went after that choice, and my full second tier of closers was gone, as I suspected it would be. With that in mind, I decided I'd really wait rather than push up the next tier just to try to catch up, and instead go with some cheaper options. Ultimately, I got Jordan Hicks (sans Giovanny Gallegos, unfortunately) at 14.14, Drew Pomeranz at 15.2 (backed up by Mark Melancon at 17.2) and took a shot at Arizona's role with Stefan Crichton in the 24th round. I'll fire off two more reliever picks in the 29th and 30th round to finish the draft.
• Reserve Roster Construction: Mentioning Crichton and the relievers-to-be-named-later merits a discussion on reserve roster construction. In leagues where there's seven reserve spots, no IL spots and FAAB — i.e., NFBC and TGFBI leagues — I like to have someone to cover CR, someone to cover MI and an extra OF on my bench. This time I'm going to have more reserve pitchers, because I have a handful of multiposition players. Among my multiposition players are Moore (2B/OF), Cronenworth (1B/2B/SS), Joey Wendle (2B/SS/3B) and Enrique Hernandez (2B/OF). I have at least two players who qualify at every infield spot and the outfield. Yes, if three hitters get hurt, I'll have to address that in free agency, but I'd prefer to make my reserves be pitchers, the easier to stream starters and speculate on closers. Typically, these slots are made to cut anyhow, as we keep the bottom part of our rosters fluid.
• Draft Grid: I'm Team 2 -

To enlarge image, click here

II. RazzSlam

RazzSlam is another overall contest mostly featuring industry folks, with a few other strong players who are not affiliated with any company sprinkled in. Unlike these other industry leagues, RazzSlam is a points league rather than a roto league, with the scoring system modeled after the NFBC's Cutline Contest. It is a best ball league, with only two FAAB periods (one in April, one in July), and we draft 42 players total.

• It's obvious but worth pointing out that in points leagues, you don't need to compete in every single category — it's only a matter of maximizing points. Some formats, like the Cutline, are designed to model the value of the categories in roto contests, but that still doesn't dictate that you need to compete in each category. If you don't want to chase saves, great! You don't have to chase closers, even in an overall contest. I suspect, however, that many players will eschew closers and stolen bases, perhaps creating value with those types of players.
• Points leagues and best ball leagues are not my strength — I enjoy the formats, but I just don't have that much experience playing them. That's why I brought in Mike Alexander for the RotoWire MLB Podcast last week. He did a great job previewing RazzSlam, laying out the differences between the various best ball contests and giving great tips on how to do well in them. Please give it a listen if you haven't already.
• Multiposition players carry an added value in Best Ball leagues. It's a lot easier to draft that extra pitcher if you have three or four players who can slot in multiple places — it's similar to my note on bench construction for TGFBI, but with a bigger impact, as you don't have to actually set your lineup. The converse is also true — DHs lose a lot of value, as they can only tie up your UT slot, perhaps blocking that sixth outfielder of yours from being active when you might need him. Interestingly enough, while there are a lot of multiposition second basemen, there aren't that many multiposition players in the first five rounds — five, to be exact, in Cody Bellinger, DJ LeMahieu, Whit Merrifield, Cavan Biggio and Brandon Lowe, using the NFBC's Cutline ADP. It isn't a coincidence I have two of those players on my team.
• Draft Grid: We got through nearly seven rounds on the first day. I'm Team 6:

To enlarge image, click here

You'll note the absence of "yellow-brick roads" so far (h/t Derek VanRiper for the term) — not every RazzSlam league is playing out like that, but I think the format is allowing us to prioritize quantity later over early quality, unlike nearly every other draft I've seen so far this year.

III. Parting Shot

Go get Tejay Antone.

Antone is not guaranteed a spot in the Reds starting rotation. Neither was Tyler Mahle last year, but he pushed his way through and earned it. Antone is heading down that path this spring. He held up well last season in his debut, and has since added velocity and more bite to his slider. That he hasn't locked up a starting job is keeping his draft cost relatively affordable — I got him at pick 299 in TGFBI, others have had to go a little earlier. Even if he doesn't begin the season in the rotation, he'll still be valuable. Starting pitchers are going shorter in their outings, meaning that there's more innings for the likes of Antone to pick up. He'll get more strikeouts in relief than teammate Wade Miley will as a starter, if that's the way the Reds' rotation is aligned to begin the season. Opening Day is also just a starting point — there's plenty of time during the season for Antone to take over if he doesn't start there. Remember, Corbin Burnes was technically a reliever to begin 2020, working in tandem with Brett Anderson — though when Anderson came down with a blister, Burnes's first outing was actually as a starter. The point is, roles can change, but the skills and stuff are what's important.