The Z Files: Dissecting Draft Dynamics

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Published on January 28, 2021

Win the league, not the draft. Search the Z Files archives and that shows up as an article title at least once. Today, we're going to reinforce that notion, but from a different angle.

By means of review, target drafting is a common ploy. The idea is to use historical league results to set category targets sufficient to win the league. In full disclosure, I used to be a huge proponent of this approach and for the early years of the NFBC, I was the go-to guy for the previous season's average standings. Fast forward several years and I feel the tactic can do more harm than good.

That said, much like I stated with the flaws inherent in inflation a couple weeks ago, anything easing your mind at the draft table is a good thing. So long as you're aware of the pitfalls of target drafting and avoid them, more power to you.

One of the main reasons I'm no longer a fan of target drafting is that the procedure is so biased, you better not only hit them but blow them away. You're taking players for which you are more bullish than the market while others are drafting those for which you are bearish, well ahead of your ranking. How can you not crush your targets?

There are a couple more technical reasons to eschew target drafting. My research has demonstrated between 75 and 90 percent of your final stats are acquired on draft day. The deeper the

Win the league, not the draft. Search the Z Files archives and that shows up as an article title at least once. Today, we're going to reinforce that notion, but from a different angle.

There are a couple more technical reasons to eschew target drafting. My research has demonstrated between 75 and 90 percent of your final stats are acquired on draft day. The deeper the league, the greater the number of drafted stats. Regardless, there is plenty of wiggle room with stats added in-season to gain several standings places.

The other shortcoming relates mostly to pitching. With streaming so prevalent, the standings at the end of the draft only capture the first nine arms. Unless it's an old school league with moves only permitted if a player is hurt or sent to the minors, you'll be floating starters and relievers into the active lineup all season.

I've written and said this tongue-in-cheek a few times this offseason -- I remain undefeated at the draft table. I've "won" every draft or auction. Unfortunately, my final record isn't nearly as sparkling.

While this is admittedly hyperbole to get a point across, it gave me an idea. What follows is a summary of a couple of drafts recently done for real leagues. The rules for each are the same. They're close to standard NFBC, with a couple of important differences.

Separate IL from reserve (same seven-man reserve)
Twice-a-week transactions for hitters and pitchers

These nuances may or may not result in a different approach than a standard NFBC league. For me, they did, but not enough to threaten my undefeated draft record. I sTiLL wON bOtH dRafTS, though as you'll soon see, one was hairy.

The following data will be presented with each pick:

Pick number
My rank at the time of the draft
The NFBC ADP concurrent with the draft
The roto standings points of my team at the end of the round
My place in the standings at the end of the round

The first draft started mid-December while the second kicked off in early January, so several players have signed or had their 2021 prognosis altered since the pick. The data is from the time of the draft to better compare rankings to the market at the time.

League One

ROUND	PLAYER	PICK	RANK	ADP	POINTS	PLACE
1	Mookie Betts	2	2	3	88	4
2	Aaron Nola	29	31	24	79.5	8
3	Marcell Ozuna	32	16	47	85	4
4	Lance Lynn	59	76	61	73.5	11
5	Corbin Burnes	62	73	51	71	15
6	Anthony Rizzo	89	57	97	68.5	15
7	Jose Altuve	92	84	109	88	5
8	Dansby Swanson	119	93	91	87.5	4
9	Eddie Rosario	122	63	117	91	4
10	Gio Urshela	149	78	157	96	2
11	Taylor Rogers	152	142	124	97.5	3
12	Jean Segura	179	121	194	106	2
13	Austin Hays	182	82	221	113.5	1
14	Mitch Garver	209	211	233	109.5	1
15	Carson Kelly	212	229	295	107.5	1
16	Jorge Polanco	239	140	203	113	1
17	Shohei Ohtani	242	202	254	112	1
18	Brian Anderson	269	164	201	110	1
19	Sean Manaea	272	153	249	111	1
20	Pete Fairbanks	299	522	433	106.5	2
21	Matt Barnes	302	199	214	116	1
22	Trevor May	329	308	445	122.5	1
23	Freddy Peralta	332	342	328	124	1
Final					122	1

Like the NFBC, rosters did not have to be legal after 23 rounds, hence the added line designated as Final. Everyone picked from the 24th round on are included in the final standings.

The slow increase of roto points and corresponding standings placement speaks towards roster build and the fact there isn't as much differentiation of player expectations early in the draft. For what it's worth, while each draft is different, they all come close to the pattern displayed above. It takes several rounds for a foundation to be set, then separation occurs as perceived superior roster build and player evaluation kicks in.

For what it's worth, I felt like I was in a groove this entire draft. It was just one of those things and is reflected by the relatively high point total, at least for this process. Winners of 15-team leagues usually amass 115-135 points but I don't often eclipse 120 at the draft.

League Two

ROUND	PLAYER	PICK	RANK	ADP	POINTS	PLACE
1	Trea Turner	3	3	6	78	7
2	Brandon Woodruff	28	34	29	80.5	6
3	Marcell Ozuna	33	17	50	87.5	4
4	Lance Lynn	58	51	52	81.5	7
5	Hyun Jin Ryu	63	47	69	80.5	7
6	Eddie Rosario	88	62	121	75.5	11
7	Dominic Smith	93	69	117	85	3
8	Rhys Hoskins	118	83	184	86	2
9	Amed Rosario	123	91	268	87	2
10	Gio Urshela	148	67	161	94.5	2
11	Christian Vazquez	153	95	151	91.5	3
12	Mike Minor	178	191	307	90.5	2
13	Austin Hays	183	75	215	100.5	1
14	Justin Turner	208	126	220	98.5	1
15	Sean Manaea	213	157	246	98.5	1
16	J.B. Wendelken	238	327	497	100	1
17	Drew Pomeranz	243	281	251	99.5	1
18	Trevor May	268	309	453	96	2
19	David Peralta	273	190	274	100.5	1
20	Pete Fairbanks	298	568	298	93	4
21	Yusei Kikuchi (res)	303	527	420	86.5	4
22	Joey Wendle	328	300	299	86.5	4
23	Joc Pederson	333	320	359	96.5	3
END	Martin Maldonado	448	343	421	103.5	1

Mookie Betts and Mike Trout were the first two players off the board. I chose Turner over Ronald Acuna and Fernando Tatis because I wanted to force a different build than the first draft. Both Acuna and Tatis provide a similar stat array as Betts, so I thought taking Turner would provide a nice contrast from a laboratory perspective.

Man, did it ever. Every draft has its own flow, but I felt like I was fighting myself the entire time. It isn't all drafting Turner, but it likely contributed to the consternation.

I didn't realize it at the time (pinky swear, I never look at real-time standings), but even though my undefeated record is intact, it was close.

Notice the huge drop in points after choosing Fairbanks and Kikuchi. The drop with Fairbanks had to do with the closeness of the batting categories and how not choosing a batter cost me several points. The further drop after Kikuchi was because my pitching was filled so I didn't add any more stats to my team on that side of the ledger after Round 21.

Adding two hitters by the end of Round 23 helped, but first place wasn't secured until Maldonado joined the fold. That's how close the counting stats were – adding the paltry production of a backstop barely draft-worthy did the trick. While this is outside the scope of the topic at hand, I drafted way too much batting average instead of pounding counting stats harder.

The main point is the shape of the roto points is similar to the first draft, slowly progressing as the foundation is built and player expectation drives the increase. This is best seen by comparing my ranking to the pick number and ADP. Early on, there isn't much variance, but as the draft progresses, players I favor more than the room are added.

None of this is intended to show off my drafting prowess. Trust me, if you did the same exercise, you'd also experience similar results. I just thought it would be interesting to picture how the typical team compares to the field in a draft. Specifically, if you use drafting software and peek at the standings, don't tailor early choices to improve your position. Stay the course and before you know it, you'll be leading the pack. If you aren't, it's time to reconsider your drafting approach.