The Z Files: Flexibility Second To None

The Z Files: Flexibility Second To None

This article is part of our The Z Files series.

Welcome to the fifth installment of "Tiers of a Clown", my unique breakdown of each position using classifications and not conventional ranking tiers. In brief, each position is divided into several groups, each with a common theme. The groups are subjective as are the constituents. Your set may be different than mine. The idea is to pick out the overriding characteristic when that player is considered. Having something other than an arbitrary rank to evaluate with aids in roster construction.

Here are the positions covered so far:

Before delving into the second base tiers, here's a general overview of the position.

The term scarcity is engrained in the fantasy baseball lexicon. The catch is there is no textbook definition. Perhaps the most widely used connotation is to describe the depth of a positional pool. Valuation theory dictates there are exactly the number of draft-worthy players as there are active roster spots. For instance, in a 15-team league with 14 active batters, 210 players are assigned a price of at least $1. If the prices are generated irrespective of eligibility, a position is considered scarce if there aren't sufficient players to legally fill all the spots. The way to correct this entails using positional replacement, and is beyond the scope of this discussion. Suffice it to say there are mechanisms to force ample players at each spot.

For years, both middle infield designations were scarce according to this definition. However, it hasn't been an issue

Welcome to the fifth installment of "Tiers of a Clown", my unique breakdown of each position using classifications and not conventional ranking tiers. In brief, each position is divided into several groups, each with a common theme. The groups are subjective as are the constituents. Your set may be different than mine. The idea is to pick out the overriding characteristic when that player is considered. Having something other than an arbitrary rank to evaluate with aids in roster construction.

Here are the positions covered so far:

Before delving into the second base tiers, here's a general overview of the position.

The term scarcity is engrained in the fantasy baseball lexicon. The catch is there is no textbook definition. Perhaps the most widely used connotation is to describe the depth of a positional pool. Valuation theory dictates there are exactly the number of draft-worthy players as there are active roster spots. For instance, in a 15-team league with 14 active batters, 210 players are assigned a price of at least $1. If the prices are generated irrespective of eligibility, a position is considered scarce if there aren't sufficient players to legally fill all the spots. The way to correct this entails using positional replacement, and is beyond the scope of this discussion. Suffice it to say there are mechanisms to force ample players at each spot.

For years, both middle infield designations were scarce according to this definition. However, it hasn't been an issue for 10-15 years, depending on the depth of the league. In fact, the only position requiring an adjustment in today's landscape is catcher. As such, second base is not scarce using this definition; there's plenty of draft-worthy options.

A secondary use of scarcity is to describe the quality of a pool, often focused on the top end. In this scenario, second base qualifies as scarce as the talent there pales in comparison to the other infield spots as well as outfield. Whether this requires a pricing adjustment is another topic best saved for another time, but so long as there are enough draft-worthy players, it's not recommended to "overpay" for one of the better second baseman, even though there aren't many.

The bottom line is second base is scarce in terms of quality but not quantity. One's draft approach is contextual to the format.

The other striking feature of the position is the number of multiple eligibility players. Of the 34 draft-worthy second baseman in a 15-team league (according to my rankings), 23 have eligibility at other positions (using the NFBC seven games in 2020 as the minimum). Again, this heads into a tangential area to be covered at a later date, but the effectiveness of multiple position eligibility depends on the format.

With that as a backdrop, here are my keystone tiers. Remember, they're presented in arbitrary order, though the subjects within each are ordered by quality.

  • Speed: The player may help elsewhere, but the main objective is stolen bases
  • Power: The player contributes more power than the typical second baseman
  • Three of a Kind: The player has other attributes, but the driving force is eligibility at three or more positions
  • Huh?: There's something about the player that adds risk, usually related to a sample size anomaly with their 2020 numbers
  • Youth is Served: Up-and-comers looking to establish themselves
  • Solid: More floor than ceiling, but durable and reliable
  • Playing Time: Draftable skill sets, but playing time is unclear
  • Nah: Recognizable names, but I have no interest in 15-team mixed

Speed

Whit MerrifieldPicked up pace last season after saying he didn't want to run down the stretch in 2019
Ozzie AlbiesNot a burner, contributes everywhere, but should continue to steal frequently
Jonathan VillarAssuming he signs with team that overlooks other deficiencies and gives green light
Nick MadrigalYou know the deal, if he hits HR, it will be of the inside-the-park variety
Kolten WongDefense should land him regular gig
Jon BertiConfident Miami will find playing time so he avoids that category
Garrett HampsonPlaying time a concern, but ability to run still primary trait

Second base used to flush with sources of steals. They're still here, but the pool isn't as deep. On the other hand, swipes are down across the board. Other than Merrifield and Albies, the rest can be picked up later, as a means to make up for a paucity of pilfers. This helps to avoid chasing steals in the fifth through 10th rounds.

My research on the NFBC Main Event shows early steals are often wasted, as winning teams fare much better in HR, RBI and runs than SB. This doesn't mean to avoid Merrifield or Albies, just that pairing them with a first rounder like Ronald Acuna, Mookie Betts, Trea Turner or someone else expected to swipe 20 or more bags may not be optimal. On the other hand, if one of your early picks was Freddie Freeman or Nolan Arenado, Merrifield or Albies make a perfect complement. This is the type of roster build integral to a competitive team.

Note: four of the seven in this class are eligible elsewhere (OF: Merrifield/Berti/Hampson, SS: Villar).

Power

Brandon LoweRays will give Lowe some rest, but he should play nearly every day
Max MuncyConfident enough in a rebound he doesn't land in the Huh? group
Mike MoustakasCorner infield profile with second base eligibility

With drafters looking for steals from the middle, the power sources usually slip. These are better options to pair with an early steals contributor than the previous set. There will be ample bags later to make sure the first-round contributions aren't wasted.

All three of these second base eligible hitters also qualify at other spots (OF: Lowe, 1B: Moustakas, 1B/3B: Muncy).

Three of a Kind

DJ LeMahieuAlso 1B/3B, should hit for average anywhere, needs favorable venue for power
Jeff McNeilAlso 3B/OF, sweet runs and RBI from the middle, often overlooked at the position
Tommy EdmanAlso 3B/SS/OF, quietly 20+ SB upside, draft for steals, move him around to embellish power
Chris TaylorAlso SS/OF, Dodgers always seem to need him somewhere
David FletcherAlso 3B/SS, sneaky good in OBP and points leagues
Jake CronenworthAlso 1B/SS, rookie campaign supported by Statcast metrics
Ryan McMahonAlso 1B/3B, optimal for daily leagues when at home vs. RHP
Joey WendleAlso 3B/SS, not sure where (or when) he'll play, but confident Rays will find a way to get him in lineup
Mauricio DubonAlso SS/OF, nice option if you lack diversity in your early and mid-round picks
Marwin GonzalezAlso 1B/3B, could slot into Huh? Or Playing Time, but flexibility is everyone's first reaction
Michael ChavisAlso 1B/OF,  could go into Power or Playing Time, but better served as late flexibility, streamed in favorable matchups
Luis UriasAlso 3B/SS, not enough category juice to use every day, but a nice way to extend reserves

To reiterate, most of these players have a primary contribution, but I would probably prefer someone else unless the multiple eligibility tips the scale in their favor. I'm less likely to go this direction in the NFBC Main Event, as the short reserve hinders their effectiveness, but I'm all over this group in Draft and Hold and Best Ball. Note: Fantrax only assigns one position per player.

Huh?

Keston HiuraSpike in strikeouts with a drop in hard contact a concern
Cavan BiggioDrop in K% encouraging, but an already pedestrian quality of contact dipped in 2020
Jose AltuveHas age curtailed running for good?
Ketel MarteAmazed more isn't made of just two HR and one SB last season
Dylan MooreFlash in the pan or late bloomer?
Donovan SolanoHit .330 in 2019 so .326 last season isn't shocking, but breakout on wrong side of 30 is hard to trust
Scott KingeryDeserves a mulligan on last season's .159/.228/.283, but it's hard to completely ignore

Investing in this group depends on whether the market is pricing in the risk. Early indications are Hiura, Biggio and Moore will cost. Moore is a bit surprising, but the allure of his steals is enticing. Altuve could avail some profit, while Marte is a wild card.

Continuing with the eligibility theme, a trio in this group offer roster flexibility (3B/OF: Biggio, OF: Moore/Kingery).

Youth is Served

Gavin LuxWill the Dodgers hand him the keystone keys?
Andres GimenezCould be everyday second baseman, but Mets could also sign an outfielder, pushing McNeil to 2B
Brendan RodgersProspects to the Rockies are like what oil is to vinegar
Jazz ChisholmIs last season's small-sample struggle being overlooked?
Vidal BrujanLong shot, but you never know what Tampa Bay has in mind, plus could be traded

Like first base last week, there isn't a great influx of talent on the horizon. That's partially due to defensively deficient shortstops often moving over a spot and/or minor league shortstops are blocked and shift to second. Jeter Downs, ranked as Boston's top prospect by James Anderson, is an example of the latter.

Lux and Gimenez are intriguing speculative plays since it should be easy to backfill if they aren't roster worthy come Opening Day.

Here are the multiple eligibility players in this group. All playing a lot of shortstop in the minors, as was just suggested (SS: Lux/Chisholm. 3B/SS: Gimenez).

Solid

Jean SeguraLittle of everything
Nick SolakRangers will find a spot
Luis ArraezEmpty batting average, but bankable and taken late enough to make sure he fits roster construction
Cesar HernandezWill be more confident once he finds a home, could move to top of list if it appears he'll hit first or second
Starlin CastroGenerally durable, reportedly recovered from last season's wrist woes
Tommy La StellaJust as easily could be in the Playing Time tier, but plate skills are stable and solid
Jurickson ProfarAnother guy without a team, but ability to dabble in the infield and outfield should assure playing time
Wilmer FloresWhen/if the universal DH is official, will move closer to the top

The presence, and depth, of this group is what fuels the quantity aspect of the position. Not many other spots have such reliable options available late or even in the end game. This is why it's not advisable to reach for a second baseman early; there will be someone on the board later. It won't be a sexy pick, or even one with a ton of upside, but it's fine to be boring once in a while. This group also enables you to move someone out of second and to another position you may have been unable to address earlier.

Guys legal in other spots (3B: Segura, OF: Solak/Profar, 1B: La Stella/Flores).

Playing Time

Hanser AlbertoNot convinced he's signed to be regular
Jonathan SchoopWill power return?
Enrique HernandezDodgers used him as more than RH platoon bat, but will his next team?
Ty FranceCame close to slotting into Solid, but can see France landing as super-utility who's great for AL-only but not so much for Mixed

With some other positions, there will be some Playing Time options worth speculating on in case they sign somewhere as a regular. Here, I need to see it. Hernandez (OF) is the only player eligible elsewhere.

Nah

Adam Frazier
Rougned Odor
Nicky Lopez

With so many second base eligible players, I don't have to worry about this trio, but I'll note if they're chosen since that pushes my draft-worthy platers up a notch.

That's a wrap. As always, I'm eager for feedback. Who did I omit? what would be a better classification? Please feel free to post your thoughts in the discussion.

Next Week: The Hot Corner

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Todd Zola
Todd has been writing about fantasy baseball since 1997. He won NL Tout Wars and Mixed LABR in 2016 as well as a multi-time league winner in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. Todd is now setting his sights even higher: The Rotowire Staff League. Lord Zola, as he's known in the industry, won the 2013 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Article of the Year award and was named the 2017 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year. Todd is a five-time FSWA awards finalist.
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