This article is part of our The Z Files series.
The topic on the table is how much 2020 should factor into 2021 player expectations. It's a subject I discussed in this space earlier this month in So Much to Think About and Adjusting 2021 Projections for the Regional Schedule, and which came up again over the weekend:
Every offseason, I spend a few weeks in early October fine-tuning my algorithms, based on any newly available data and research studies. This year was no different. However, in addition, I needed to decide how to deal with all the nuances specific to 2020 such as geographical schedules, too few games to compute reliable park factors, an imbalance in divisional quality, no minor leagues in which to rehab, etc.
The result was a lot more work than normal, and it's not over yet. Even though I've generated the foundation of my 2021 player projections and have preliminary rankings, they need a substantial amount of massaging, more so than usual.
Here's my concern. My assumption is regardless of how one derives player expectations, more effort will be put forth than normal. As such, it will be human nature to have more faith in the