MLB Barometer: Risers & Fallers

Congratulations to those of you who still have cause to read a fantasy baseball article even after fantasy football season has started. I write this article as I'm in the process of missing the playoffs in my home league by a single category. I hope you all have had better luck and wish you success in your playoff runs or down the stretch in your roto leagues. If you're still here despite already being eliminated or effectively eliminated everywhere and are trying to get a head start on preparing for your 2021 drafts, I applaud your dedication.

It's been a predictably odd season, and there should be quite a wild finish coming up. Players have widely varying numbers of games remaining based on how badly their team was caught up in the season's various COVID-19 outbreaks, which has a significant effect on their values. The Cardinals have played just 40 games, while seven teams have played 48. That should in theory mean St. Louis has 20 games left, nearly twice as many as the 12 games remaining for some teams, though they have just 18 on the schedule. Even if the final two games don't get added, your Cardinals are still presumably 50 percent more valuable than your players from teams like the Padres and Twins, who are among those who have played the busiest schedule thus far.

That, of course, assumes the stretch run will go smoothly, which might be overly optimistic. We nearly saw a logistical nightmare for the league over the weekend, but the positive test that caused a pair of Giants-Padres games to get postponed Friday and Saturday turned out to be a false positive. Teams have been shut down for as long as 16 days in the case of the Cardinals' outbreak, and even a one-week absence with just two weeks left to play would throw a wrench into the league's plans and could really hurt fantasy teams at a key time.

We've made it this far with the league still intact, however, and I hope that everyone who elected to go forward with their leagues this year is happy with that decision. This week's article takes a look at a handful of players who have been surprisingly good or bad thus far this season, with an eye towards thinking about how we should view them heading into next year's draft season in many cases.

RISERS

Juan Soto, OF, Nationals: We knew Soto was good, but did we know he'd be quite this good quite so soon? He announced his talent with a 145 wRC+ as a rookie back in 2018, but that appeared to perhaps be his level, as he produced a very similar 142 wRC+ last season. Suddenly, that's shot up to a 204 mark this season through 32 games, the product of a .354/.482/.735 slash line. He missed a bit of time in early September with a minor elbow issue but has been back for five games, reaching base 15 times. 10 of those times have come via a walk, part of his remarkable 19.1 percent walk rate. That number looks even better when paired with his 14.2 percent strikeout rate, a significant improvement on his 20.0 percent mark from both of his first two seasons.

Aaron Nola, SP, Phillies: Nola featured in this column nearly a month ago, but he deserves another mention here as he's maintained his incredibly high level and appears to be establishing himself in a higher tier of starting pitcher. He sits third among qualified starters in xFIP with a 2.45 mark, trailing only Shane Bieber and Jacob deGrom. His jump has come via a big step forward in strikeout rate, where he ranks sixth among qualified starters at 35.5 percent, quite a jump for a player who'd previously topped out at 27.0 percent. He doesn't seem to have sacrificed anything to get there, as his 6.0 percent walk rate matches his career low, while his 52.8 percent groundball rate is the second-highest mark of his career.

Corbin Burnes, SP, Brewers: Burnes had a 3.37 xFIP last season and a 29.8 percent strikeout rate. He also had an 8.82 ERA, with a .414 BABIP and a 38.6 percent HR/FB rate bearing much of the blame. Looking at just his 3.23 xFIP this season, he barely seems to have improved, though his 1.99 ERA could hardly be more different from his mark from last year. His .233 BABIP and 2.9 percent HR/FB rate will certainly regress, but he's also taken another step with his strikeout rate, posting a 36.4 percent mark. The 25-year-old is getting better as the season goes on, as he hasn't allowed a single earned run in 19 innings over his last three starts, striking out 27 while walking just three and allowing just seven hits.

Adam Duvall, OF, Braves: How many benches or waiver wires was Duvall stuck on when he hit his first three-homer game of the season back on September 2? How many was he still stuck on when he did it again one week later, a game in which he drove in nine of Atlanta's 29 runs against Miami? The 32-year-old is having quite the year, posting a .261/.312/.606 slash line, good for a career-best 134 wRC+. It's possible that we all should have seen this coming, or at least that Duvall's standing in the fantasy world should have been higher than it seemed to be. He appeared in just 41 games at the big-league level last season, but his .267/.315/.567 slash line was similar to his current marks. He's now kept up quite a high level of performance for 86 games over the last two years and has a near-everyday role in Atlanta's lineup as a result.

Yusei Kikuchi, SP, Mariners: Kikuchi's inclusion here may seem like an odd one given that he owns a 5.35 ERA, but his underlying numbers almost universally suggest this is a much-improved version of the pitcher who disappointed quite significantly in his first MLB campaign last year. He generated some draft-season buzz due to reports that he'd significantly increased his velocity following a trip to Driveline, and while that did indeed happen (his fastball has jumped from 92.5 mph to 95.1 mph), the early returns weren't particularly encouraging, as he struggled to a 6.30 ERA in his first four starts of the year. His 4.24 ERA in his last three outings remains mediocre, but it comes with a 0.94 WHIP and an 18:1 K:BB. Overall, his strikeout rate has jumped from 16.1 percent to 26.2 percent, while his groundball rate has risen from 44.0 percent to 51.5 percent. Those significant improvements should set him up quite well for next season.

FALLERS

Austin Meadows, OF, Rays: Meadows missed the early part of the season while recovering from COVID-19, and he simply hasn't been the same player since he returned to action. His .205/.298/.385 slash line represents a huge step down from his .291/.364/.558 line from last year. His strikeout rate has spiked from 22.2 percent to 33.3 percent, and he's making far worse contact when he does hit the ball, with his barrel rate dropping from 12.5 percent to 7.8 percent. It's quite possible his struggles are the result of his body being beat up by the illness, something we'll have to keep in mind for several strugglers next draft season. If that's the sole reason, however, you'd think his numbers would improve as his strength returned, yet he slashed a respectable enough .244/.326/.451 in August before hitting just .125/.239/.250 in September.

Vladimir Guerrero, 1B/3B, Blue Jays: Guerrero was such an advanced hitter at such a young age in the minors that many predicted he'd have immediate success at the big-league level. His .272/.339/.433 line with 15 homers in 123 games as a rookie last season was quite impressive for a 20-year-old, but a 105 wRC+ failed to meet his perhaps unfair expectations. Opinions on him were split this draft season based on whether or not you thought he'd take a huge step forward or continue to produce a good but largely empty batting average. As it turns out, he hasn't even done the latter, as he's hitting just .241/.321/.412, good for a 99 wRC+. He'd actually started out the year just fine before struggling to a .163/.255/.245 line over his last 14 games.

Max Scherzer, SP, Nationals: Scherzer is still a fantastic pitcher, but age comes for us all. The numbers he's still able to put up at age 36 are remarkable, but they're nevertheless the worst we've seen from him in several years. While his 4.04 ERA, his worst mark since 2011, may be higher than he deserves considering that it comes with a 3.30 FIP, even that FIP is his worst mark in nine years and is 0.85 runs worse than last season. His 32.5 percent strikeout rate, while excellent, is his worst mark since 2016, and his 7.8 percent walk rate is his worst mark in a decade. His 1.40 WHIP and 31.2 percent groundball rate are both career worsts. Again, it's still a very good profile, but this isn't quite the same Scherzer we're used to seeing, and his stock should drop next draft season.

Javier Baez, SS, Cubs: Baez hasn't been the most reliable offensive weapon throughout his big-league career, but the depth of his struggles this season wouldn't have been easy to predict. He's hitting a miserable .203/.239/.362, good for just a 55 wRC+, the third-worst mark among qualified hitters. His six homers would translate to just 20 over a 162-game season, and he's stolen just a single base. His early-career strikeout problems have returned in full force, as he's striking out in 33.0 percent of his plate appearances after posting a respectable 26.6 percent strikeout rate over the last four years. He's also walking just 3.7 percent of the time. His quality of contact has dipped a bit as well, as his barrel rate has dropped from 12.7 percent to 8.5 percent.

Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers: Andrus was taken at an NFBC ADP of 146 this offseason. It's safe to say he's fallen far short of expectations. Back issues sent him to the injured list briefly in late August and again Saturday, likely knocking him out for the year. That could well be a blessing in disguise for those with Andrus on their team (if any are left), as they won't be forced to figure out whether he'll turn things around. His .194/.252/.330 season slash line simply isn't close to good enough. While his .200 BABIP is undoubtedly part of the problem -- Statcast gives him a better but still unimpressive .251 xBA -- there should be real questions about his playing time heading into next season. While the 32-year-old will still be under contract for two more years, will the rebuilding Rangers really want to give a starting role to a player of his age who owns a 73 wRC+ over the last three seasons?