Bernie on the Scene: Do I Want These Hitters Next Year?

Now is the time I start considering players for next year's fantasy drafts and auctions. I do that exercise now while performances are fresh in my mind.

I have some real issues with several "big name" players.

This has been an incredibly different type of MLB season. 

COVID-19 has robbed the world of normalcy. Professional sports is just one entity of normal life that we have missed.

Major League Baseball has seen some of their best hitters and pitchers struggle to find their way.  There are a few reasons that can be used to excuse the poor performances:

1. Starting spring training, stopping spring training, being at home for months and then starting spring training again didn't help the timing and preparation of players.

2. With limited preparation before the first pitch in the new season in mid-July, plenty of pitching arms weren't stretched out. Plenty of hitters didn't have enough repetition at the plate against quality pitching to prepare. Hitting against teammates in camp doesn't help much. Especially when pitchers don't want to come inside and risk hitting a teammate.

3. There are no video rooms in big league clubhouses. Hitters and pitchers can't watch coordinated video in a structured location. They are left to watch video at home or at the hotel. Tough to do with all the distractions.

4. I think the physical baseball is different. I have written in this space that MLB likely would use up the baseballs they had in stock and then mess with the new crop. I think that's happened. I don't see the massive home runs we saw last season. Just a hunch on my part. I have no proof.

There are plenty of hitters who have gone south in this short season. I want to highlight a few of my favorites. They have ruined my own fantasy teams, and maybe yours as well.

Here's the question I pose: will you draft these guys next baseball season? Is this a one-year wonder?

(All statistics are from the start of play Saturday, Sept. 12.)

Eduardo Escobar, Diamondbacks (3B, SS, 2B)

I could list every Diamondbacks hitter in this space. That includes Ketel Marte, who is now on the injured list.  But few jump out as much as Escobar. 

Last year, the switch-hitting Escobar hit .269 with a .320 on-base percentage. He hit 35 home runs. 35. He drove in 118 runs. He smoked 10 triples in his 699 plate appearances. He stole five bases. He was very, very fantasy viable.

Fast forward to this sprint season. Escobar is hitting .208 with a .277 on-base percentage. He has hit four home runs and driven in 18.

That equates to nine a month. That is not a typo. He's been to the plate 177 times, plenty of time to adjust to his surroundings. He has scored 18 runs.

Escobar is hitting .184 as a right-handed hitter against left-handed pitching. Last year he hit .298.

Next year? I pass. Escobar is 31. His bat has slowed. His reaction time has slowed. If he fell to me, I'd consider it. But I'd rather have Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Rio Ruiz or take a chance on Jeimer Candelario. Those are not household names.

Marcus Semien, Athletics (SS)

Marcus Semien is a free agent at the end of the season. This disaster could not have had worse timing. He is hitting .219 with a .288 on-base. He's hit five homers and driven in 12 runs. Let me repeat that. He's driven in 12 runs in 37 games and 170 plate appearances. Last year he hit 33 homers and drove in 92 runs. Last year he scored 123 runs. This year? Twenty-one so far. Yes, the number of games and plate appearances are far less. But really? He's having a brutal season.

Next year? I still believe in Semien, but his fantasy outlook will depend on where he signs and the offense around him.

Cody Bellinger, Dodgers (OF,1B)

Now here's a poster child for what this season has done to a hitter.

Bellinger hit .305 with a .406 on-base. I didn't expect quite that. But not  the .211/.292 he has delivered. His slugging percentage has dropped from .629 to .422, still very good. But — and here's the catch — he has driven in only 22 runs in 42 games and 185 plate appearances. Yes, he has 10 home runs. But he has averaged only 11 RBIs in each of the two months. 

Next year? I like the home runs, but he goes to the plate every game with an extreme uppercut swing hunting those home runs. He does make contact, but he has to drive the ball more to the gaps.

Jose Altuve, Astros (2B)

I don't know for how long Altuve's knee has been barking. He didn't go on the injured list until Sept. 3 with that issue.

Altuve has shown signs of decline in his aggressive approach — especially with regard to stolen bases. They have gone from 32 to 17 to six to two this year. Altuve didn't make the All-Star team in 2019.

As I write this, Altuve left the playing field hitting .224 with a .284 on-base percentage. Last year he hit 31 homers. This year? Three. He had 12 RBIs and 23 runs before going on the IL.

Next year? Altuve will be 31. His knees may still bark. He has slowed considerably. He will be viable, but he will continue to fall on second base rankings. 

J.D. Martinez, Red Sox (DH, OF)

A right-handed hitter, Martinez is built for the Green Monster at Fenway. His swing allows him to take pitches where they are thrown. But this year has been a disaster for the 33-year-old Martinez.

Last year he hit .304 with 36 homers and 105 RBIs in 657 plate appearances. This year he has hit four homers and driven in 18 runs in two months and 172 plate appearances. He is hitting .211 with a .297 on-base. He is slugging .375. Last year his slugging percentage was .557. Martinez has scored 15 runs. Last year? 98.

The Red Sox flat out stink. He is suffering due to the loss of Mookie Betts and now, Mitch Moreland.

Next year? I think he'd have to really sink in my drafts for me to hit the button for him. I still think he's a solid hitter, but he has no lineup protection at all and pitchers can just work around him.

Javier Baez, Cubs-(SS)

Ever since Baez lost the hitch in his swing (which I wrote about here at RotoWire when Baez was a rookie) I have liked him.

Now, he is late on fastballs and is fooled by the constant breaking balls he is seeing. 

Baez smoked 34 and 29 home runs the last two years. This year he has six in 179 plate appearances. That isn't bad. But — and here's the rub — he has only 33 total hits in 179 plate appearances and is hitting in the middle of a good Cubs lineup. His .196 batting average and .235 on-base can ruin a fantasy season. He has stolen one base. He has driven in 19 runs, an average of 10 a month, and he has scored only 20 runs, for the same dismal monthly output.

Next year? Is Bryant on the Cubs? If yes, I consider Baez. I think he's a better player than he has shown this year. But it depends upon where he falls in drafts. Baez, Story, Lindor, Correa and Seager hit free agency after 2021. That should motivate each of them if they haven't extended their contract somewhere with a big league club.

Carlos Santana, Indians (1B)

The Indians entire offense is in the dumpster, but Carlos Santana is really among those that are struggling the most.

Always a league leader in on-base percentage, Santana has a keen eye at the plate and knows how to take a walk. His walk rate is still high, but in the last few weeks, even his walks have suffered. He has 38 walks this season, which helps his .356 on-base percentage. 

Most fantasy leagues are not won with walks. Time after time this year, Santana has left men in scoring position. He is hitting .195 with five homers and 21 RBIs. But he could have a ton more. That's the issue. 

Santana has been to the plate 194 times, and he has only 30 hits, all but eight are singles (three doubles and those five homers).

A switch-hitter, Santana has been woeful against right-handed pitching, hitting only .171 in 146 plate appearances. He is someone who should stick to hitting only right-handed. 

Next year? I don't think Santana is with the Indians unless he agrees to a low-ball offer. Much will depend upon where he lands. However, there are plenty of better first base candidates in MLB right now. I think I'll pass.

These guys also concern me:

Bryan Reynolds, Pirates (pass)
Joey Gallo, Rangers (consider)
Max Muncy, Dodgers (consider at 2B only)
Christian Yelich, Brewers (I'm not really that worried)
Josh Bell, Pirates (consider)
Pete Alonso, Mets (consider)
Miguel Cabrera, Tigers (pass)*

* Full disclosure: I was bullish on Cabrera based upon his swing in spring training. I was wrong.

Heading Home

Pitchers are of concern as well. I will write about them next week.

With baseball confining their playoffs to select cities and specific hotels, I think MLB has a chance to get to the World Series without issues.

There will not be an Arizona Fall League this year. It is yet another casualty of COVID-19. I am convinced Commissioner Manfred is not upset the Fall League will be canceled. I have always thought he didn't want the league to spend the money it takes to run a solid fall product. The virus really played right into the hands of curtailing player development costs. Very, very sad.

As an aside, the Fall League is where I was able to see virtually every top prospect well in advance of the player's graduation to the big leagues.  I have rarely missed games since the league began. It will be like a huge part of me will be missing. And yes, I think they could have run the league safely.

Here are my last two articles from forbes.com. I hope you give this one and this one a read. Thanks.

Follow me on twitter @BerniePleskoff

Stay safe and healthy out there. And please, don't forget to thank those that make your life safe, healthy and better each and every day.