Collette Calls: Hidden RBI Chances

Offense continues to explode around the league as the bats, or balls, have appeared to wake up from their summer hangover. As play began Sunday, the White Sox had hit 23 home runs this week alone, and led the league with 54 home runs overall. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks have 22 home runs this season even though they have had nearly the same number of plate appearances as the White Sox. 

It should not surprise you that Fernando Tatis, on the heels of his grand slams, is leading the league in RBIs. What is surprising is he has done that while hitting leadoff in San Diego. Leadoff hitters are not supposed to lead the league in RBIs, but this is 2020 where nothing is normal. The lack of pitchers hitting (I'll never tire of saying that) is certainly a factor allowing a NL leadoff hitter more RBI chances than normal, but there is some early weirdness afoot that I'd like to review.

Two of my favorite breakdowns on where RBIs come from are pieces from Scott Spratt of FanGraphs and Tanner Bell of Smart Fantasy Baseball. Spratt showed us that the expected RBIs by lineup spot were as follows:

Bell brought the data out in a few graphs, but one in particular stands out as it shows not only the drop in RBI chances as the lineup moves down, but also the impact of the 8 and 9 spots in a normal NL lineup:

That is why the season Tatis has had is so unusual because it flies in the face of the historical data. The league average per 600 plate appearances shows that baserunners are scoring 14.7 percent of the time off a batter's play.  The table below shows the hitters whose baserunners are currently scoring 20 percent of the time when that player puts a ball into play:

Martin Maldonado has been a godsend for catching productivity, but the 17 runs he has driven in is about 15 more than most expected. He is making the most of his opportunities, but he is at the extreme end of the production range and he is doing this from a very unusual spot in the lineup. Erik Gonzalez is the other unusual source of production down in the lineup, and you should be grateful for what both players have already produced as it is very unlikely they will drive in a similar total over the remaining five weeks of the season. 

The new construction of the lineups in 2020 make it a bit less unusual for hitters in the top two spots driving in runs, but the players in the table above certainly bear watching as things normalize in the weeks ahead. 

Anthony Santander is a fascinating story because he has hit mostly second all season with Hanser Alberto consistently in front of him and seven different players batting in front of Alberto. Santander has not cared who has been on base as much as he appreciates them being on base; he is hitting .277 overall, but .320 with runners in scoring position and .311 with runners on. 

However, the real purpose of all this is to look for some underperformers in RBIs who may see a surge in what is left of the season. Again, the league-average is just less than 15 percent, but there are some noticeable names in the single-digits to date.

Josh Reddick has hit in four spots of the Houston lineup and has had 79 runners on base when he is at the plate, but has plated just seven of them (9 percent). Hitting with runners in scoring position is not a stable statistic nor is it even a skill, but it is something Reddick has not done well at this season. He is just 6-for-30 with runners in scoring position with three doubles, which explains why he has struggled to drive in runs. Last season, he hit .270 in those situations, and hit .346 two seasons before that. His overall line of .266/.349/.415 is right in line with previous efforts, but the RISP issues to date are impacting his overall line.

Pete Alonso has 13 RBIs this season as he struggles to reach the high bar he set for himself with his amazing rookie season.  Alonso has had 102 runners on base when at bat, but just nine have scored in that plate appearance. The rookie had 20 extra-base hits and drove in 65 runs in those events last season, but has just one extra-base hit this year with runners in scoring position and has driven in six runs. He has done better with runners on base, hitting .315 with five extra-base hits and 11 RBIs, but not as well when there is not a runner on first. 

Marcus Semien has not enjoyed the same success as Tatis in the leadoff spot, even though Semien has had more opportunities. Semien has had 73 runners on base when at the plate, but just six have scored in that plate appearance. Setting aside that Oakland is somehow having an amazing season despite their leadoff hitter batting .202/.256/.339 out of nowhere, he has been particularly wretched with runners on base. Semien is hitting .184 with eight RBIs with runners on and .125 with six RBIs if those runners are in scoring position. He is a much better hitter than this, so any return to normalcy should result in a surge of his run production.

Speaking of ice cold hitters, Kris Bryant has yet to warm it up. He is having an abysmal season at the plate, and has driven in just four more runs than you or I have in the big leagues this season. There is no need to look into what is causing his run production issue beyond staring at his .177/.271/.323 batting line and crying into our beverage of choice. You can almost lump Anthony Rizzo and his .213 batting average in there as well since he has plated just nine runners this season. 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been a disappointment this year. He has driven in seven runs, four of which were himself with solo home runs. He has driven in just three baserunners this season, going 9-for-40 with one extra-base hit with runners on. Last season, he hit .294 in those situations with 22 extra-base hits. He is better than what he is currently doing, but the summer layoff appears to have given back everything he looked to have gained in winter. 

Edwin Encarnacion is a notorious slow starter, so July/early August is his normal April. That said, nobody needs his .159/.237/.362 line now. He has driven in six runs this season while hitting four home runs. He is hitting a cool .129 with runners on this year, driving in three of the 53 baserunners. 

Adalberto Mondesi has hit in six spots of the lineup as Royals manager Mike Matheny tries to find a home for him. The problem for Mondesi owners is he keep being moved down the lineup and has now found a home in the eighth or ninth spot the last two weeks. Last season, he drove in 62 runners, but this season has driven in just two of 66. Mondesi is the oddball on this list who is actually hitting better with runners on base (.234) than he is overall (.220). The challenge is Matheny is not going to move him up the lineup until his overall numbers look better. He could still surge to driving in a double-digit percentage of his runners, but his opportunities will remain limited down in the lineup.