Mound Musings: Checking in on AL Bullpens

Usually, about a month or so into the season, I like to take a look at some bullpens that seemed a bit unsettled heading into the year. This season, I decided that look needed to happen earlier. In fact, the bullpen shuffle has made it necessary to evaluate just one week in. So, we'll take a look at a few teams still/already struggling to find answers in the bullpen. With the 2020 condensed schedule, it has become painfully obvious to MLB managers, and fantasy teams, that a reliable bullpen, front to back, is critical to success. As many starting pitchers are working fewer innings, the scramble is on for help in the endgame – an "endgame" that has been happening earlier and earlier.

Bullpen role shifts result from illness, injury and ineffectiveness

There have been a few assignments dictated by the coronavirus, even more impacted by injuries, and some have been the result of ineffectiveness. And, there have even been a handful that don't appear to be attributable to any of the above. This has been a wild year in both rotations, and bullpens, and it's probably not settled yet. There are still shaky situations with more potential adjustments to come. Let's take a look at some bullpen assignments in the AL and see how they stack up for the foreseeable future:

Here are some AL bullpen scenarios to keep an eye on:

• Kansas City Royals – Our first bullpen peek falls into the "huh???" category. It was assumed Ian Kennedy would resume his ninth-inning duties after doing a solid job in 2019. Yes, the rebuilding Royals are not expected to challenge for a playoff berth this season, so a midseason trade would not be all that surprising, but barring a deal, and assuming good health, he should be the guy. After all, it's pretty unusual to see a change in roles without a fairly obvious reason. That has been the rule, but this year has been one big exception. The Royals brought in veteran reliever Greg Holland. Not a big deal initially, injuries have sapped his effectiveness of late, so he's a wild card. However, Holland is a former frontline closer, and past experience is a factor. Right out of the gate. Kennedy entered a game early – he does off the ability to pitch multiple innings – while Holland came on in the ninth. This could be trade showcasing, or it could be a changing of the guard, but until we know, Holland has to be considered a saves source.
• Tampa Bay Rays – No one ever accuses the Rays of being too traditional. They do things differently, and it usually works. In fact, a large percentage of pitchers who arrive in Tampa with nondescript resumes take significant steps forward. This spring/summer, the back of the Rays' bullpen was not cast in stone. Some expected a ninth-inning timeshare between holdovers Diego Castillo and lefty Jose Alvarado. Some, including myself, saw relative newcomer Nick Anderson finding the strike zone, and taking over the ninth. Enter another possibility. The Rays had acquired Oliver Drake, a 33-year-old, former 43rd round draft pick, journeyman reliever, a couple years ago. He did reasonably well as a middle reliever, but after the first two team save chances of 2020, Drake has two saves. Castillo and Alvarado were miscast as closers, and perhaps the Rays don't feel Anderson's command is where it needs to be. Will Drake continue (and succeed) as the team's end gamer? It's too early to tell, but I can't rule it out. I have only seen him pitch one time recently. I need to see more.
• Toronto Blue Jays – This one falls squarely into the injury impact category. Not surprisingly, Ken Giles entered the season as the Jays' closer. He converted his first chance, but in his second appearance, the injury bug, a longtime nemesis for Giles, jumped up and bit him. He was removed from the game, and diagnosed with a right forearm strain. Uh oh. That sometimes translates into Tommy John surgery. So far, that's not the case, but Giles is getting a second opinion. With him out indefinitely, Anthony Bass is the interim closer – today. Put me in the skeptical column. Bass is better suited to set-up duties, and a potentially better option is on the roster. Rafael Dolis pitched for the Hanshin Tigers in Japan the past four years, accumulating 88 saves over that time. He signed with Toronto this past winter, missed Spring Training 1.0 following an appendectomy and has displayed inconsistent command since the season began, but he has closing experience, and the stuff to make it work. He'll need to gain the manager's confidence, but I like his chances. Monitor his usage closely.
• Minnesota Twins – The Twins might have been part of an innocent situational save opportunity. I am inclined to believe their first save chance went to someone other than their presumed primary closer because of "one of those things" and therefore shouldn't be of major concern going forward. I'm confident their best reliever, southpaw Taylor Rogers, still serves as their primary closer, even though veteran Sergio Romo collected their first save. Romo is serving as Rogers' main backup and offers a right-handed option to close if Rogers needs a day off or the matchups dictate an alternative approach, and he provides consistently solid innings as a set-up guy. He was warming up, presumably to pitch in a nonsave situation when the Cardinals closed the gap to three runs. Rather than get Rogers up, Romo pitched the ninth inning. Interestingly, Rogers has yet to pitch in a regular season game. That could be injury or illness related, but there have been no reports of either. On a side note, I sill mention that offense is borderline ridiculous. They hit more than 300 homeruns last year and then added Josh Donaldson in the offseason. Opponents may find it difficult to score enough runs to keep the games close enough to provide a lot of save chances. I'm considering benching starting pitchers facing the Twins.
• Seattle Mariners – I saved the best (worst?) for last. The Mariners may play musical closers all year based on all of the change factors. Going down the checklist, the first closer option, Yoshihisa Hirano, is on the virus injured list. Next up, Austin Adams, is still recovering from knee surgery, albeit he's reportedly close to returning, and journeyman Matt Magill, who closed part of last year, appears to be surfacing as a set-up man. So who is today's closer in Seattle? Well, Taylor Williams got their first save, but I'm not at all sold on that being the ultimate answer. I still have two sleepers (although I think Adams jumps into the mix as soon as he's ready), Dan Altavilla and Carl Edwards both have closer-like stuff if they convince the powers that be they can throw quality strikes. However, either would need an extended stretch of effectiveness to work his way into a late-inning role. Down the road, I list Adams first for saves, followed by Altavilla, then Edwards, but you'll notice I presented the list on a chalkboard so I could erase and realign at a moment's notice. Right now, I'll set the over/under for at least one Mariners save in 2020 at seven.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• In a very surprising development, the Braves' Mike Foltynewicz was torched in his first 2020 start and then designated for assignment later in the day. He lacked any semblance of command, but more disturbing, his fastball was clocked at just 89 mph when he usually sits in the mid-90s. I suspect an injury.
• The Ramblings this week, unfortunately, have a distinct injury focus. The Astros' Justin Verlander will be shut down for a couple weeks with a forearm injury. With no throwing until mid-August at the earliest, the outlook for significant innings this season isn't very good, and they may not push it to be safe.
• The Nationals' Stephen Strasburg was scratched from his first 2020 start with numbness in his pitching hand. It was reported he has been dealing with this since this spring, and it was suggested the problem isn't serious. He received a cortisone shot, and the condition is improving so we could see him soon.
• And the beat goes on. Texas was hoping for a healthy season from newly acquired ace Corey Kluber, but it only lasted one inning. He was removed from his first start after suffering a torn teres major muscle in his shoulder. No surgery, but he won't throw for four weeks, which puts his season in serious jeopardy.
• One more to add to the list. The Dodgers' Alex Wood is suffering from some tenderness in his throwing shoulder. He struggled through an injury marred season last year, and he hoped to stay healthy over this abbreviated schedule. No word yet on the severity of the injury, but he'll need to get back soon.
• The Yankees took a hit, too, when James Paxton was ineffective and left his first start after just one inning. He was clearly not right mechanically, with a significant dip in his normal velocity and lack of command. This could be lingering effects from the back woes he suffered this spring. Hopefully he can iron things out.
• I was going to move on beyond the injuries, but then the Cardinals announced that Miles Mikolas has been scheduled for surgery to repair his right flexor tendon. It's not Tommy John surgery, but he'll miss the rest of this season. Assuming no complications, he should be ready for spring training 2021.

Endgame Odyssey:

The plan is to cover bullpens in the National League next week, but there are plenty of things happening there already, too. With Mikolas now out for the season, the logical addition to the Cardinals rotation would seem to be Kwang-Hyun Kim. He's currently still the closer, but I look for Giovanny Gallegos to step in and free him up for starting. In a word, Craig Kimbrel was awful in a recent outing. His days as the Cubs closer, are, or should be numbered. Slight edge to Jeremy Jeffress over Rowan Wick to take over, but going outside the organization could be their best move. I think Nick Burdi has claimed the primary closer's gig in Pittsburgh, but they will be cautious with his workload so Kyle Crick could still see occasional save chances. Edwin Diaz is probably still the first option to close for the Mets, but the leash has to be getting shorter, so he better keep the ball in the yard. Seth Lugo is probably the best alternative but he has so much value with his flexibility, they could try Jeurys Familia or Dellin Betances instead. It looks like Trevor Gott might be the lukewarm play in San Francisco, but this looks like a true committee. The best closer candidate in their pen right now is Shaun Anderson, but his versatility could keep him out of that assignment.