This article is part of our MLB Barometer series.
It's been an incredibly busy week of baseball news as teams look to cram a full spring training into a few short weeks in the midst of a pandemic. A worryingly high percentage of that news has been coronavirus-related, as players across the league remain absent from camp for undisclosed (yet typically not hard to decipher) reasons.
It's far from an easy question to figure out just how far to drop those players in draft rankings, with detailed information generally not being widely reported due to privacy concerns. An absent player could be anywhere from battling a fairly severe case of coronavirus to simply waiting for a hiccup in the testing protocol to go away, as was the case with the Phillies' Adam Haseley, whose arrival was delayed due to a lab error after the test he submitted was apparently never returned. We have no way of knowing in most cases whether a player is completely bedridden or if he's working out just as much as his teammates, just in a different location.
There's nothing close to reliable precedent for how to navigate this strange new world, but you can see an attempt to do so by me, Jeff Erickson, Clay Link and Todd Zola in our latest roundtable rankings. This week's barometer will look both at players who have risen and fallen in that update as well as others who could be moving in the next edition. The list remains rather virus-heavy, though there's some good old-fashioned
It's been an incredibly busy week of baseball news as teams look to cram a full spring training into a few short weeks in the midst of a pandemic. A worryingly high percentage of that news has been coronavirus-related, as players across the league remain absent from camp for undisclosed (yet typically not hard to decipher) reasons.
It's far from an easy question to figure out just how far to drop those players in draft rankings, with detailed information generally not being widely reported due to privacy concerns. An absent player could be anywhere from battling a fairly severe case of coronavirus to simply waiting for a hiccup in the testing protocol to go away, as was the case with the Phillies' Adam Haseley, whose arrival was delayed due to a lab error after the test he submitted was apparently never returned. We have no way of knowing in most cases whether a player is completely bedridden or if he's working out just as much as his teammates, just in a different location.
There's nothing close to reliable precedent for how to navigate this strange new world, but you can see an attempt to do so by me, Jeff Erickson, Clay Link and Todd Zola in our latest roundtable rankings. This week's barometer will look both at players who have risen and fallen in that update as well as others who could be moving in the next edition. The list remains rather virus-heavy, though there's some good old-fashioned non-pandemic news as well, including lineup changes and a reassuringly familiar nagging injury for Aaron Judge.
RISERS
Kenley Jansen, RP, Dodgers: A number of risers now and throughout the season will be related to COVID-19 recovery, and Jansen headlines that group this week. There was some thought that the Dodgers' closer would elect to opt out this season due to his prior heart issues, but he indicated that he had no desire to do so. As it turns out, he did indeed test positive for the virus, causing him to miss the start of camp. He was able to report Saturday, though, giving him less than two weeks to get in game shape by Opening Day. That's not a lot of time, but an abbreviated buildup should in theory matter least for relievers, who don't need to work up to a high pitch count. It's certainly possible that he winds up making a low-leverage appearance or two to open the year, but I'd be comfortable taking him around the same spot he was going prior to coming down with coronavirus.
Aaron Nola, SP, Phillies: Like Jansen, Nola is a riser now that he's back in camp. He was unable to report until last Monday, though unlike Jansen, it was revealed that he never tested positive himself. He'd merely been exposed to someone who caught the virus, but league rules mandate that a player isolate and get tested in that situation. The fact that he's been healthy means he's presumably been able to stay in shape, so he won't be cramming an entire buildup process into little more than two weeks. It's not entirely clear whether he'll be ready to pitch on Opening Day — he says he will be, but manager Joe Girardi has expressed doubt — but the fact that he's back in camp and the news that he's been healthy all along bodes well for him.
Cesar Hernandez, 2B, Indians: Manager Terry Francona revealed Sunday that he intends to use Hernandez as his leadoff man this season, presumably as part of a quartet of switch-hitting infielders atop the lineup that includes Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor and Carlos Santana. Hernandez is by no means an elite bat, but anyone who leads off for a decent lineup is worthy of consideration, and hitting in front of that trio should help him score plenty of runs this season. Whether Hernandez can stick in the role likely will depend largely on his on-base percentage. He was above the .370 mark in that category in 2016 and 2017 and posted a still-strong .356 mark in 2018, helped by a double-digit walk rate in all three seasons. His walk rate plummeted to 6.7 percent last year, dragging his on-base percentage down to .333, a rather unappealing number for a leadoff hitter.
Ryan Helsley, RP, Cardinals: Confusion at the back of the Cardinals' bullpen has Helsley looking like the exciting new save speculation candidate. Jordan Hicks, who was already expected to miss time while working his way back from Tommy John surgery, announced his decision to opt out of the season Monday. Giovanny Gallegos was the presumed next man up, having cruised to a 2.31 ERA and a 33.3 percent strikeout rate last year, but he's still stuck in Mexico due to pandemic-related travel issues. Even if he arrives soon, there may not be time for him to be ready for high-leverage work by Opening Day. Carlos Martinez could claim the closer job as well, though the team might prefer to keep him in the rotation. That leaves Helsley looking like the next-best option. His 2.95 ERA in his 36.2-inning debut last year was helped by an unsustainable 84.6 percent strand rate and came with just a modest 20.9 percent strikeout rate, though he posted a career 26.3 percent strikeout rate in the minors. He's not as dominant as most closers, but the scramble for saves could get quite messy this season, so it's worth taking a look at Helsley if he's cheap enough.
Zack Britton, RP, Yankees: The Yankees also have closer questions after Aroldis Chapman tested positive for COVID-19 on Saturday. A standard two-week absence would keep the incumbent closer out just past Opening Day, and he could need at least a small handful of lower-leverage outings once he returns before reclaiming his traditional role, as his time in quarantine will cost him nearly the entirety of summer camp. Britton is a natural candidate to deputize for Chapman as long as necessary, as he has 145 career saves under his belt and is coming off a season in which he recorded a 1.91 ERA. He doesn't have a traditional closer's skillset, relying on an incredible 77.2 percent groundball rate to offset a low 21.6 percent strikeout rate, so he doesn't provide the strikeout help that keeps some setup men fantasy relevant when not closing. That means he's likely to be only a short-term acquisition, but every save will count in this sprint of a season, and the veteran lefty is a strong bet to record at least a few at the start of the campaign.
FALLERS
Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees: Judge said he was healthy at the start of camp following a long battle with a fractured rib, an injury that dated to the end of last season. He was participating in intrasquad games and reportedly swinging pain-free, declaring himself ready for the start of the season. I had been prepared to move him up to very near his pre-injury price in our roundtable rankings update, on the theory that he only had to stay healthy for 60 games. That's already out the window, however, as news came in over the weekend that he'd been dealing with a stiff neck and would miss a few days of practice. It doesn't seem as though the neck issue is any particular worry, but the notion that Judge is fully healthy no longer holds up. He's still a big riser compared to where he was in March, but his health questions simply won't go away, meaning he's fallen slightly again.
Yordan Alvarez, DH, Astros: Alvarez is one of the most noteworthy hitters who's yet to report to camp. The Astros haven't provided any details on Alvarez's absence, with manager Dusty Baker simply stating that "a condition" prevented him from taking the field. It can't be confirmed that the young slugger's absence is virus-related, but it sure seems likely, and he's since been placed on the 10-day injured list. Alvarez has nearly as much upside as anyone this season, as he burst onto the scene with a remarkable .313/.412/.655 slash line and 27 homers in just 87 games last year, good for a 178 wRC+, which ranked second only to Mike Trout among hitters with at least 300 plate appearances. That upside now comes with considerable risk, as it remains impossible to say when he'll get back on the field in any capacity, let alone when he'll be game-ready. With Opening Day in a little over a week, it seems very likely that he'll miss at least a handful of games, and any absence is a significant blow for fantasy owners in this 60-game sprint.
Cole Hamels, SP, Braves: The delayed season seemed initially to be a good thing for Hamels, as it bought him the time to recover from a shoulder issue that dates to an offseason workout. Reports in late June indicated that the veteran southpaw expected to be ready for the start of the season, but his recovery has seemingly hit a snag. He's yet to throw live batting practice and skipped his throwing session Saturday entirely due to triceps tendinitis. It's unclear when he's expected to get back on the mound, but with Opening Day little more than a week away, there's seemingly no chance he avoids the injured list to start the season. When healthy, Hamels is serviceable but hardly exciting, as his 3.81 ERA and 23.2 percent strikeout rate in his age-35 season last year were adequate but not much more than that. While he could certainly get past his issues and wind up starting for most of the year, there's seemingly little reason to hold onto a low-upside veteran who comes with so much uncertainty.
Tyler Glasnow, SP, Rays: I wanted to be all over Glasnow this season and have described my reasoning in previous columns. His skills aren't in doubt, as he breezed to a remarkable 33.0 percent strikeout rate and 6.1 percent walk rate in 12 starts in his breakout 2019 campaign. His workload and durability are in plenty of doubt, of course, but in a season in which no pitcher will be asked to handle a heavy workload and in which any seemingly durable player can be sidelined without warning due to coronavirus, neither of those seemed like nearly as much of a concern as usual. He's yet to report to camp due to undisclosed reasons, however, which seemingly throws all that out the window. With Opening Day nearly upon us, even if he's reported between the time this piece is written and the time it's published, he's very unlikely to have time to build up to anything close to a starter's workload. Glasnow's injury history means the Rays won't want to push him quickly at all, so it will likely be some time before he's pitching deep enough into games to earn wins.
Michael Kopech, SP, White Sox: Kopech joined the list of players choosing to sit out the 2020 season, announcing his decision Friday. He wasn't a lock to open the season in the White Sox rotation, but he was an interesting fantasy option nonetheless due to his elite velocity and his 31.3 percent strikeout rate in his latest minor-league stop with Triple-A Charlotte back in 2018. He can obviously now be taken completely off the board in single-season leagues, but his stock takes a hit in dynasty formats as well. He missed all 2019 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, so when he returns to the field in 2021 he'll be coming off consecutive seasons without throwing a single pitch. It's possible the extra rest improves his durability, but he's likely to come with a fair amount of rust.
