Bernie on the Scene: Tigers Pitching Prospects Clawing their Way to Majors

LEADING OFF

Here is  what I have heard recently from people in and around the game about the start of the baseball season:

• While the All Arizona plan seems nice, it may not be feasible to play all MLB games in Phoenix. Health of all those in and around the game is the first priority and concern. There are logistical issues of housing, food, transportation, family visits and everything else that folds in to the staging of professional baseball. 

• If games are restricted to Arizona, fastball pitchers should be targeted in fantasy, as breaking balls don't spin as much in the desert. That's just a fact that you can exploit in late drafts.

• Summer heat in Arizona remains an issue. Starting games at 7 a.m. doesn't seem practical. Starting games at 7 p.m. means a steady diet of 10 p.m. starts on the east coast. That won't fly.

• A potential to put one league in Arizona and the other in Florida is gaining some traction. I believe I mentioned that option publicly before. However, add humidity in Florida to the heat equation that would occur in Phoenix.

• I think fantasy platforms should work on creating "Arizona Only" and "Florida Only" leagues in addition to "National League Only" and "American League Only" leagues. Plan ahead.

• Minor League execs remain incredibly concerned that MLB moguls want to use this downtime to further their agenda to reduce the number of minor league clubs.  

• There is a feeling that the Basic Agreement between MLB and the Player's Association will be delayed by a year, with the current agreement being extended.

• Bottom line, a lot of rumors. Few facts. a lot of concerns. The highest concern rests with the ability of networks to pull out of television contracts, as their contracts allow such action.

THE STARTING LINEUP — PROSPECT PROFILES

Matt Manning, Tigers, RHP, 6-6, 216, Age 22

Having turned 22 in January, the athletic Manning is really moving along quickly in the Tigers organization.

Desperately in need of pitching, Detroit drafted Manning out of Sheldon High School in Sacramento, Calif., in the first round of the 2016 draft. Overall, he was the ninth player taken.

Manning works his secondary pitches off his fastball in a traditional manner, but with better than average results. His curve and changeup are advanced pitches, and he uses them with confidence. With a fastball range of 92-97 miles per hour, Manning can change speeds to deceive a batter before calling on his breaking balls to end the at-bat.

Tall and slender, Manning knows how to use those long arms to pitch downhill and have his body encroach on the hitter. I project him as a mid-rotation, No. 3 starter.

Manning spent 2019 at Double-A Erie in the Eastern League. He had 24 starts and finished 11-5 with a 2.56 ERA. He yielded only 93 hits in his 133.2 innings, which is a really good indicator of future success. He struck out 10 hitters per nine innings, while walking 2.6. GRADE: 60

Casey Mize, Tigers, RHP, 6-3, 300, Age 22

Unlike Manning, Maze was selected out of college. Detroit made Mize the first overall pick in the 2018 draft. He had compiled a 20-13 record in three years at Auburn, starting 36 of his 46 collegiate appearances and finishing with a 2.96 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.

Mize will turn 24 on May 1. He has completed two minor league seasons and has yielded 93 hits in 123 innings. He spent 2019 at High-A Lakeland and at Double-A Erie, compiling a composite record of 8-3 with a 2.55 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. He struck out 8.7 per nine while walking 1.9.

Between Manning and Mize, Mize is likely a bit ahead in development. Keep in mind the Tigers gave him a $7.5M signing bonus, which will accelerate his path to your fantasy team.

Mize uses a split-finger pitch that sets him apart. A solid athlete, Mize has outstanding command and control of an arsenal that includes a fastball that arrives between 93-96 miles per hour and a very good slider in addition to that splitter. Those three pitches are enough to navigate the best of lineups.

Mize and Manning are often paired in the minds of baseball analysts. They will be part of the same rotation, with Mize likely at the top and Manning in the middle. Of the two pitchers, I think Mize has the greater chance for overall success due to that splitter. GRADE: 65

Tarik Skubal, Tigers, LHP, 6-3, 215, Age 23

The third member of the Tigers dynamic prospect pitching trio is lefty Tarik Skubal. He doesn't get the same amount of buzz as Manning and Mize, but he is well worth the praise he receives.

Skubal was a ninth-round pick of Detroit in 2018 out of Seattle University. He has far exceeded his draft position. He has put himself on the map to graduate to the big-league rotation at some point in 2021, depending upon the specifics of the season we await.

Skubul had a three-year career at Seattle University, where he went 21-7 and threw 206 innings in 38 starts. Combine that with the 145 innings he has completed in the Tigers minor league system, and Skobul's development is moving along nicely.

Unlike Manning and Mize, Skubul uses a complete four-pitch repertoire including fastball, curveball, slider and changeup. His fastball varies from 92-97 miles per hour.

It is Skubul's pitch sequencing that sets him apart. He knows what pitch to throw in the sequence, choosing from that complete variety and effectively setting up hitters for the next pitch.  His command and control of his entire repertoire is above average, which allows him to use any pitch at any point in the count efficiently. That's rare.

I think Skubul is an underrated pitcher. Because he is left-handed, many think he will suffer with command and control against quality major league hitters. I disagree. GRADE: 55

Christian Pache, Braves, OF, BR, 6-2, 185, Age 21

Christian Pache has two very positive aspects in his corner. First, he is tremendously athletic and can play the game. Second, he is in the Braves organization, which knows how to develop players. The Braves won't rush their best prospect.

Pache was signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2015, receiving a $1.4M bonus.

When I first saw him in the 2018 Arizona Fall League, Pache had compiled a few seasons stateside. He was very raw when I scouted him. The tools were very evident, but the game flow and knowledge seemed to overwhelm him. He hit .279 with no homers and nine RBIs. He stole three bases without being caught. His athletic ability jumped out at scouts. Especially on defense.

In recent years, Pache has matured and has developed a better offensive game. He is no longer viewed strictly for his great glove in center field, but for his emerging strength and power potential. He only hit 12 homers in 538 plate appearances last year, but he's coming around.

Pache walked 43 times last year, and that's an improvement that will elevate his game. He is seeing more pitches and is becoming a selective hitter. I see his patience improving his batting average in the future. 

I don't see Pache's offense ever catching up to his defense, but I do see him being a contributor to the Braves' overall lineup. In my observation, he will always have to make adjustments and work on calming what was once an aggressive offensive approach. That is improving. It needs to continue. Looking ahead, the best of Pache will be four years from now, when he enters his age 25 season. But he's a very good player. GRADE: 60

Dylan Carlson, Cardinals, OF, BB, 6-3, 205, Age 21

I must begin by stating how much the Cardinals need Carlson to succeed. They are thin in the outfield, and had the 2020 season not been delayed, we likely would have seen him at some point this season. In fact, that still may happen. When he graduates, he will play and not platoon.

A switch-hitter, Carlson's greatest asset is his ability to hit well from both sides of the plate. Last year, his best with the bat, he hit .299 as a left-handed batter against right-handed pitching in 423 plate appearances. He hit .274 as a right-handed batter against lefties. That's a positive split.

Carlson was the Cardinals first-round pick in 2016 out of Elk Grove High School in California. He was the 33rd player taken overall.

The Cardinals have moved Carlson along quickly in their development program. Last year he played at Double-A Springfield and Triple-A Memphis at age 20. Again, he had no collegiate experience and his results last year showed more promise than his first few seasons.

Carlson did not hit above. 247 in the previous two years, yet last season he hit a combined .292 with 26 home runs and 68 RBIs. He walked 58 times, which is admirable. He also stole 20 bases in 28 attempts. 

Carlson has all the qualities to have an impact on the Cardinals' lineup. He has a strong, well-proportioned frame and good hitting mechanics. His bat speed is above average and the ball has begun to jump off his bat.

I hope the Cardinals allow him one more complete season in development to determine if he can repeat his offensive burst from last year. He can use more repetition. Hh's projectable to have a very positive future as opposed to a spotty, inconsistent current situation. GRADE: 60

EXTRA INNINGS

Let me know if there are players you wish me to profile.

Scouting grade definitions are available in previous weekly columns.

Thank you to all those medical personnel who provide such great care and for all those who risk their own health to provide essential daily needs and services. You are appreciated.