This article is part of our AL FAAB Factor series.
Normally on Sundays, I'd be writing and posting the AL FAAB article, highlighting and analyzing players who are worth picking up (or occasionally, trying to talk you out of throwing too much of your budget at a player likely to draw high bids). However, with the MLB season held in suspended animation like a bug in amber, there are no FAAB or waiver periods to worry about. At least I hope not – there's probably a couple of leagues out there that drafted early and might be plowing ahead anyway, but spending any portion of your budget right now would just be silly, when things as fundamental as the number of games that will be played and the size of big-league rosters are still up in the air.
That doesn't mean, however, that there aren't players and roster situations worth discussing in the meantime. Each week until the season is finally ready to begin, we'll take a look at players gaining or losing value, to prepare you for that eventual first FAAB period.
Starting Pitcher
Griffin Canning, Angels: Despite a decent big-league debut last year, the 23-year-old's value at the draft table took a big hit this spring when he was diagnosed with UCL issues and shut down. Canning has been able to avoid surgery so far after a PRP injection, however, and he was cleared to resume throwing at the beginning of April. The delayed start to the season works to his benefit, and a promising young
Normally on Sundays, I'd be writing and posting the AL FAAB article, highlighting and analyzing players who are worth picking up (or occasionally, trying to talk you out of throwing too much of your budget at a player likely to draw high bids). However, with the MLB season held in suspended animation like a bug in amber, there are no FAAB or waiver periods to worry about. At least I hope not – there's probably a couple of leagues out there that drafted early and might be plowing ahead anyway, but spending any portion of your budget right now would just be silly, when things as fundamental as the number of games that will be played and the size of big-league rosters are still up in the air.
That doesn't mean, however, that there aren't players and roster situations worth discussing in the meantime. Each week until the season is finally ready to begin, we'll take a look at players gaining or losing value, to prepare you for that eventual first FAAB period.
Starting Pitcher
Griffin Canning, Angels: Despite a decent big-league debut last year, the 23-year-old's value at the draft table took a big hit this spring when he was diagnosed with UCL issues and shut down. Canning has been able to avoid surgery so far after a PRP injection, however, and he was cleared to resume throwing at the beginning of April. The delayed start to the season works to his benefit, and a promising young arm who looked like he could miss a significant portion of 2020 could now be in position to not miss a turn in the rotation if he avoids any setbacks – making him a possible bargain as a late-round or reserve pickup.
Michael Kopech, White Sox: Kopech's prospect cache is still high enough that he likely was drafted in deeper leagues even with the knowledge he would miss potentially the entire first half as he completed his recovery from Tommy John surgery, but in shallow formats he might have landed in the free-agent pool instead of on a reserve list. Every week that ticks by without baseball is one less start the power righty won't be on the shelf for, though, and he remains one of the arms who could benefit most from a delayed start to the campaign. The issues with Kopech haven't changed – his command was shaky even before he went under the knife, so he could be a ratio-killer – but he offers big-time strikeout potential, and once he's cleared to rejoin the rotation, his workload won't be a big concern.
Carlos Rodon, White Sox: Like Kopech, Rodon is returning from Tommy John surgery, but the 27-year-old southpaw offers a much more extensive track record than his teammate, and thus a bit more security. Rodon has teased with his upside before, posting a 3.61 FIP and career-high 29.1 percent K-rate before getting hurt in 2019, and the original timetable for his return had him back in the rotation in June or July. If I had to pick one of the two to roster in re-draft formats, I'd lean towards Rodon.
Relief Pitcher
Jalen Beeks, Rays: We still don't know what MLB's schedule is going to end up looking like, but the odds it features more doubleheaders and fewer off days remains pretty high. In that case, the sixth starters on each team are going to become much more important, and much more valuable to fantasy GMs. Beeks is at the top of the list of guys who could become excellent options to round out a roster. The 26-year-old lefty has spent the last two seasons filling a swing man role for Boston and Tampa, and while his big-league stats haven't been impressive, his career numbers at Triple-A (3.44 ERA, 224:62 K:BB in 193.2 IP) suggest he's got more to offer than he's shown so far. Maybe all Beeks needs to take the next step forward is more consistent work, something he should get in a compacted schedule.
Peter Fairbanks, Rays: Expanded big-league rosters of 29 or 30 players are going to create more opportunities for talented players to prove they never should have been on the roster bubble in the first place, and that's especially true in bullpens, which feature plenty of surprise contributors every season even under normal circumstances. Fairbanks is lost in the shuffle a bit in a deep Rays bullpen, but he has closer-worthy stuff, firing triple-digit fastballs from his imposing 6-6 frame. and while his control wasn't great last year, he was also in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. If the right-hander can find the plate more often in 2020, he could be right there with Nick Anderson as an elite high-leverage arm for Tampa.
Darwinzon Hernandez, Red Sox: Another high-octane arm who could get more opportunities with expanded rosters is Hernandez. Converted from the rotation last year, the southpaw racked up absurd strikeout numbers despite only having a vague idea where the plate was. He's still only 23, and the upside is significant here if he can sharpen his command, like Josh Hader sort of upside. Boston's likely to be looking for a new closer in 2021 – if Hernandez can take a step forward this season, he could emerge as the favorite for the job.
Catcher
Austin Allen / Jonah Heim, Athletics: For those shopping in the $1 bin behind the plate, may I suggest taking a look at the situation in Oakland? Sean Murphy is the new starter, but he hasn't been the healthiest guy in his career and doesn't have a track record of success yet in the majors, so whoever wins the No. 2 job could end up seeing a lot more action than expected. Unfortunately, we still don't know who that No. 2 catcher will be. Allen's defense is an issue, but his offensive profile was impressive as he came up through the Padres' system (three straight seasons with 20-plus homers and a batting average of .283 or better). Heim may not offer as much power, but he's shown a solid hit tool in the minors the last couple of years and has the better glove. This battle could well extend into the regular season, as carrying three catchers is more palatable when one of them is more of a DH/pinch hitter like Allen.
First Base
Evan White, Mariners: It's still a bit weird to think a player with essentially no experience above Triple-A will be a starting first baseman to begin the season, but when a rebuilding team like Seattle hands a guy a big-league contract, you have to assume they aren't going to pay him to play in the minors. White's big second half at Double-A last year is nice, but the Texas League is a long way from the AL West, and there's still no clear picture of how much power he's going to provide in the majors. All those question marks have suppressed his value at the draft table, though, and landing a player with an all but guaranteed starting gig in the late rounds (his NFBC ADP is barely above 400) offers plenty of profit potential even if White does have growing pains. Scott Kingery might be a good comp here, not necessarily from a statistical perspective but for the overall shape of his early career – White is almost exactly two years younger than the Phillie infielder, and could experience a similarly sluggish start to his big-league career without it taking away from his eventual ceiling.
Outfield
Mitch Haniger, Mariners: One injured player who doesn't seem to be benefiting from the delayed start to 2020 is Haniger. His recovery from last year's nightmarish litany of injuries has been slow, and right now there's still no clear timetable for his return. His big 2018 is still fresh enough in people's minds that he's going to be on some people's sleeper lists, but given the nature of his injuries and the fact that he underwent surgery in February, there's no reason to think he'll simply hit the ground running once he finally does make it back into action. If you're looking for an injured player to stash, thinking he'll be undervalued because he won't miss as much time as projected, there are better options out there.
Cameron Maybin, Tigers: It probably says more about the Detroit lineup than it does about Maybin, but when spring training got shut down, manager Ron Gardenhire was considering using the veteran outfielder as his Opening Day leadoff hitter. Maybin's .364 OBP last year with the Yankees would seem to make that a logical decision, but his career .324 rate is probably a better reflection of his skills. Regardless of how suited he is for the role, hitting atop the order – even one as underpowered as the Tigers – would be a nice boost to Maybin's value. It also suggests that Gardenhire is viewing him as more than just a part-time player or stopgap option until a younger outfielder pushes him aside, another reason to view his draft-day price as a possible bargain.
