Endgame Odyssey

Can a new decade actually be upon us? It's 2020, and we all hope that our vision is 20/20 as well as we prepare for another exciting season of fantasy baseball. The evolution of pitching tactics moves ever-forward, and while this article again carries the label of "Endgame" Odyssey, that evolution has perhaps expanded to the point where it would be more accurate to describe bullpen usage as an "Allgame" Odyssey. We'll still focus on the back of the bullpen, but we'll briefly explore the entire gamut of relief pitching. Let's get started.

Probably the biggest factor in the latest pitching strategy is a result of the decline in quality, traditional starting pitchers. They still exist, but their numbers are dwindling, and not too surprisingly, more and more of them are finding their way onto the rosters of the teams with the deepest pockets. It increases their value for fantasy owners, but at least in deeper leagues, it also makes relief pitchers -- or in many cases short-inning "openers" and "primary" relievers -- a necessary consideration. A little pitching assessment provides the glaring reason why.

There are 30 MLB teams. Assuming full health for all pitchers (okay, that's very unrealistic) and five-man starting rotations, there are 150 starting pitchers (30x5). Looking at 2019, the starting pitcher ranked No. 150 (minimum 80 innings) was Colorado's Kyle Freeland. He won three games, and sported a 6.73 ERA with a 1.58 WHIP over 104 innings. Not many fantasy teams (or MLB teams) win championships with that kind of starting pitching. Notably, using the same criteria, only 90 starting pitchers posted an ERA under 4.50. There simply aren't enough competent starters to go around. Lack of an adequate repertoire, poor overall command and durability issues all contribute to the need for creative solutions. Teams attempt to hide pitcher weaknesses by limiting exposure. Shorter outings facing opposing lineups only once, and switching righties and lefties to avoid stacked lineups means constant monitor- ing of usage patterns will be ever-more important. During the season, we will try to identify bullpen arms and non-traditional starters who might offer value.

However, the focus here is on bullpens -- the other end of the spectrum -- specifically the endgame. Traditionally, teams reserved their most dominant reliever for the ninth inning to hopefully protect a precarious lead. They usually entered at the beginning of the inning, with the bases empty and a "save" on the line. They rarely pitched in non-save situations, and only entered the game before the ninth inning if they were desperately needed, and well rested. Managers still prefer this formula, but the deep pockets can still complicate things. The pool of true closers isn't that deep, and the more affluent teams aren't shy about adding multiple "closers" to the back of their bullpens. That often provides them options for the ninth inning, and forces the teams with shallow bullpens to mix and match. It often becomes a season-long challenge for fantasy owners. When there are only one or two reliable endgamers on your staff, there is always a temptation to use those arms whenever the game is on the line.

The bottom line: Better teams, with more quality pitching depth, barring injuries, are usually both more predictable and more productive with regard to providing useful fantasy statistics like saves. Unfortunately, the most predictable closers are likely to be expensive on draft day. A solid saves provider is very important, but more than one might be a bit of a luxury. Filling out your bullpen will usually generate more value when you can astutely add less obvious endgamers. The key is predicting future saves before the competition sees them coming. Roster flexibility is a huge help. You may need to add that future closer a few weeks before he claims the job. Injuries are a factor too. I like to roster my primary closer's backup in case he has to step into the role. Just beware that backup closer might not be the primary eighth-inning guy.

Obviously, you'd love to have one or even two true closers on your staff, whenever possible. But we need to come up with guys who may not be closing on Day 1, but could be in that role at some point. Let's start by taking a look at the factors I suggest you look for:

INCONSISTENT PERFORMANCE » If closing close games (or even getting leads to the current closer) becomes problematic, the wise fantasy owner can start monitoring reliever usage in anticipation of possible role changes. The food chain, especially in thin bullpens, is often very fluid. Each time a reliever with adequate skills performs well, he could gradually move up into more high-leverage innings.

A DOMINANT ARM EMERGING » Watch for a very high strikeout rate, and hitters clearly struggling to make solid contact. This can be indicative of closing ability. The pitcher will need the opportunity to prove himself (see above), but the manager using him more and more frequently in high-leverage situations is a very telling tip-off.

PAST EXPERIENCE CLOSING » This one can actually be a bit frustrating. You may notice that fringy (that's being generous) closers seem to surface again and again in the ninth inning. Managers often place a great deal of emphasis on past experience in the role when looking for an alternative to the current struggling endgamer. It may not last long (or they would consistently close), but they may get frequent opportunities.

AVOID UNDERQUALIFIED SETUP GUYS » Maybe the biggest mistake made when trolling for cheap saves is the assumption that the successful, veteran eighth-inning guy will be next in line to replace a faltering closer. The jobs are actually quite different. They require different skills, and a different mental approach. A soft-tossing groundball specialist may have a history of success in the seventh and eighth innings, but is probably not the next closer.

REVIEWING SOME BULLPENS WITH POTENTIAL QUESTION MARKS HEADING INTO 2020:

LOS ANGELES ANGELS

I believe Hansel Robles might be a bit miscast in the closer's role, but he will probably enter the season with the job. That said, there are a handful of other arms to keep an eye on. Before undergoing Tommy John surgery, Keynan Middleton looked like their closer of the future, but he didn't have the same zip when he came back late last year. If he does get it back, I think he could jump right back into the picture. Also, it was a disappointing year for Ty Buttrey. He's a lot better than his 2019 numbers suggest, and he could get into the mix.

ATLANTA BRAVES

San Francisco's late-inning relievers moved east, and what was a weakness is probably now a strength in Atlanta. With the Giants, lefty Will Smith took over for Mark Melancon when health issues sapped Melancon's effectiveness. They are both with the Braves now, but when he's 100% I think Melancon's the better option, so I expect Smith to see most of his work in the eighth inning. Given his experience, Smith is a very good handcuff.

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

In my opinion, this is more a case of "when" rather than "if" regarding the closer's gig. Carlos Martinez stepped in and did a solid job last season, but it's no secret he would rather be in the rotation. Assuming he comes back at 100%, Jordan Hicks will be the closer in St. Louis, but he is unlikely to return before August or September and they will probably take it easy on his workload initially. If Martinez moves back to starting this year, it could be mix-and-match with Giovanny Gallegos and/or Andrew Miller seeing chances.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

With Melancon and Smith gone, this bullpen is full of question marks. The only reliever with significant closing experience, Tony Watson, has always been at his best in a setup role. Reyes Moronta would be an option, but he had shoulder surgery that will keep him out most of this season. That likely leaves it to Shaun Anderson and perhaps Jandel Gustave. Both have the tools to potentially win the job long term but at least early on, this could be an open audition.

SEATTLE MARINERS

Seattle played musical chairs at the back of their bullpen following the departure of Edwin Diaz, and it's quite possible that will continue this season. The last man standing in 2019 was Matt Magill. That makes him the favorite to open 2019 pitching the ninth, but he doesn't really profile as a closer. Two names to watch beyond the recently-signed Yoshihisa Hirano: I still like the oft-injured and very erratic (when banged up) Dan Altavilla, and they added a big arm in Carl Edwards Jr. Edwards Jr. was awful last year, but he has the best closer tool kit if the M's can get him back on track.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

The Phillies have pushed hard to be playoff contenders over the past couple of years, spending a lot of money on players like Bryce Harper, and more recently, Didi Gregorius and Zack Wheeler. However, their bullpen still looks like a vulnerable area. Hector Neris did a fairly good job last year as their closer, but he has a history of long stretches of poor performance. Seranthony Dominguez is probably their best reliever, but he struggles when not given a clear role and serves best in work before the ninth. David Robertson will miss all of 2020 after Tommy John surgery. There just isn't a lot of depth here. I expect them to go shopping.

TEXAS RANGERS

"The fact is, you have a confidence problem." That could easily refer to Rangers closer, Jose Leclerc. He has some of the best "closer" stuff I have seen, but like many young arms, he can struggle if things go badly over a couple of outings. He just needs to learn the closer's mandatory ability to forget yesterday, and move on. The questions arise because Texas is one of those teams with very limited depth. Leclerc is far and away their best reliever, and if he falters, the options are limited. He is the real deal, and will hopefully be the team's bullpen headliner for years to come.

TAMPA BAY RAYS

Emilio Pagan emerged as the primary closer last year but has been traded. He put up respectable numbers last season, but he never had the profile of a full-time closer in my eyes. The team has options, and they have shown a willing- ness to mix and match when circumstances suggest that is the best route. Diego Castillo from the right side, and southpaw Colin Poche, are good matchup candidates, but I think if someone does surface as the long-term answer, the best bet is Nick Anderson. He has the tools, and was exceptional after joining the Rays last July.

MINNESOTA TWINS

The Twins are an offensive juggernaut with realistic playoff aspirations, so their bullpen is very important. Last season they employed a committee for much of the season, but one arm gradually surfaced as their go-to guy in the ninth inning. Southpaw Taylor Rogers is the key. After their top-of-the-rotation guys, the starting pitching gets somewhat thin and early on, they won't have Michael Pineda as he finishes serving a suspension. They would love to save Rogers for the ninth inning, but he's currently the only lefty in the bullpen. When Rogers is needed to get a lefty out in a key spot earlier in the game, Sergio Romo, Trevor May and/or Tyler Duffey will be there to clean up.

Please keep in mind, the above list could change dramatically before Opening Day. Signing a proven closer would likely solidify the back of that team's bullpen. Hopefully we've put you in a great position to benefit from a little work, so you can regularly out-hustle your opponents when opportunities arise.

A version of this article appears in the 2020 RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Guide. You can order a copy here.