"Beat Clay Link" Draft Review

The kind folks over at the NFBC were nice enough to set up another "Beat Clay Link" league as part of the RotoWire Online Championship.

It's always a fun draft, and the overall component ($125,000) adds an interesting wrinkle. I do not change my strategy all that much with the overall prize, but I do push up steals more than most people are willing to. Everyone knows that stolen-base totals are trending downward league wide, but I still feel like there's an inefficiency with steals in this contest.

If you want to have any shot at the overall, you have to hold your nose, take the plunge and grab some steals. Jeff Erickson uses the term "loss leaders" to describe these players. A "loss leader" is a product sold at a loss to attract customers. In this context, a "loss leader" is a player bought at a loss -- in terms of straight dollar values -- to fill a category which you need to be competitive. The goal is to minimize that loss.

Some will decide that the tax on stolen bases is just too steep, and they will make do and figure it out. That's perfectly fine in a standalone league and really in any league that does not have a rotisserie scoring system. In rotisserie leagues with an overall prize, it's a mad scramble to get stolen-base contributors who do not force you sacrifice much in the other scoring categories, as it should be. It should probably be even more of a mad dash for those players. It's tough to quantify the boost you should apply to steals, but if you're serious about chasing the overall, I think you should be fine taking a slight loss here or there -- in terms of overall value -- to make sure your team is balanced and to avoid bigger categorical sacrifices later on.

I lucked out and got the first overall pick, landing Ronald Acuna Jr. Not a tough call. Some will say that it's silly to pass on Mike Trout, but I fully believe in Acuna and his running, while I'm not sure Trout returns to 20-plus steals.

The next two picks were elementary: Jack Flaherty and J.D. Martinez. Those two were pretty much right in line with their ADP, but I feel both should go early second round, even in 12-team leagues.

I ran away from Clayton Kershaw last year after the spring injury, but he returned and pitched extremely well. I was wrong and I'm back in for 2020. He does not have the same fastball as he used to, but Kershaw just has to lean on his secondaries more, and I think he's found the sweet spot with the pitch mix. The workload may be lighter relative to other pitchers in his range, but there is little-to-no performance risk.

Tim Anderson is one of my favorite "loss leader" players. It's so easy to scream regression given the BABIP and his history of shaky plate discipline, but we're talking about a guy who won a batting title at age 25/26 despite those issues, and he has shown that he can be a plus in two other categories besides steals (AVG, R) while not killing you in homers. The "Regression!" *drop mic* analysis and trepidation creates a buying opportunity. There are flaws with Anderson, but they are so obvious to everyone and in turn Anderson does not get the credit he deserves for what he can contribute in rotisserie baseball.

Zac Gallen is falling already, which is comical. I'll admit there's a slight chance he's not in the rotation to begin the season, but that would be asinine. He's clearly one of their best starters and if the Diamondbacks are serious about competing, they will have Gallen taking the ball every fifth day for most of the season.

Carlos Santana is a free square again this year.

Mark Melancon had a rare condition known as "compartment syndrome," which resulted in the blood flow to his forearm being cut off. Doctors found that his pronator muscle was turning gray from a lack of oxygen. It looked like he was finally all the way back last year. Everyone seems to think Will Smith is going to take the job eventually, but they have already said that Melancon will begin the year in the role, and Melancon was quietly really good last year (12th among qualified relievers by FIP, fourth in GB%). Plus, I really think that the Braves view Smith as more valuable in a flexible role, able to put out fires whenever they pop up while Melancon has a long track record of success pitching the ninth.

Protecting my batting average is my No. 1 priority when it comes to catchers, and Buster Posey still has a high batting-average floor, especially relative to the position. I love pairing him up with the A's Sean Murphy, and maybe grabbing Austin Allen to give you some insurance behind Murphy.

Speaking of insurance, I grabbed Blake Treinen to protect myself from a potential Kenley Jansen blowup. It was not something I planned on doing initially, but after getting Jansen, I decided I'd jump Treinen up in the reserves.

Howie Kendrick is capable of filling five spots in an NFBC active roster -- 1B, 2B, MI, CR and UT. That's valuable with the half-weeks in the NFBC, and the guy can still do major damage to the baseball.

Shin-Soo Choo and Corey Dickerson are two of my favorite outfield fillers this draft season.

Wander Franco is a shot in the dark, but the talent is off the charts, and the team has already acknowledged that he could debut in 2020. Granted, the Rays implied it would be late in the season if it were to happen at all, but an injury or two, or an insane start in the minors for Franco, could force a change of plans. Most of the players in this range are interchangeable and will be dropped. The potential reward far outweighs the risk, which is zero with your final draft pick.

Here are the full results from my Feb. 12 draft (12 teams, 5x5 roto):

RED = Players taken BEFORE their NFBC Average Draft Position

GREEN = Players taken LATER than their NFBC Average Draft Position