FanDuel MLB: Friday Breakdown
FanDuel MLB: Friday Breakdown

This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.

Friday's 13-game slate is a weird one. The most expensive pitchers probably won't be that popular, yet it'll be hard to trust any of the cheaper options. There are viable routes, you just have to dig deep.

PITCHING

There are three matchups that stand out and will likely be where most people look in cash games. Lance Lynn ($9,700) slipped up last outing against the Twins, but his 27.1 K% is still useful against weaker teams. The White Sox are one of those weaker teams with a 27.7 K% and .269 wOBA against righties in the last month. Jose Berrios ($8,800) has been more of a loose cannon, allowing 15 runs in his last three starts, yet the Tigers aren't a threat to piling on runs, failing to score more than four in their last nine games. They also own a 28.6 K% and .286 wOBA against righty arms since mid-July. Zach Plesac ($8,000) is more of a stretch because he doesn't have the same upside, but he hit 40 fantasy points in each of his last two outings against the Royals and they also have the worst OBP (.279) against righty hurlers in the last month.

Jack Flaherty ($9,900) doesn't have as good of matchup, but he's allowed just 11 hits and one run in his last four starts and is one of the bigger favorites on the slate. The Rockies also aren't as successful on the road with a .304 wOBA against righties since the All-Star break. Zack Greinke ($10,300) is the biggest favorite, but his upside has been capped with 14 strikeouts in his last three starts. That's his main detractor, though he'll still get some attention because the Angels are also bad on the road with a 25.5 K% and .279 OBP against righty arms since the break.

Vince Velasquez ($7,700) will undoubtedly get some looks due to matchup, but I wouldn't be entirely confident in him after he only went 4.1 innings in this spot a couple months ago. The Marlins don't have good numbers, though Velasquez rarely surpasses five or six strikeouts. Then again, the value options are limited on this slate with most of the mid-range guys in difficult spots and the low-end arms almost unusable. My favorite value option is Ty Blach ($5,700), who was thrown into the flames at Boston and New York in his last two starts. While his numbers are ugly in four starts this season, he had 3.84 FIP last year and the Rays have a 25.0 K% against lefties since the break.

The ultimate GPP play is Hyun-Jin Ryu ($9,400) against the Yankees, who have crushed southpaws. Ryu has dominated at home, allowing a .222 OBP and .209 wOBA to go with a 25.4 K%. It's the same case for Chris Paddack ($7,600) against the Red Sox because he's better at home with a .209 OBP and .216 wOBA allowed along with a 29.6 K%.

KEY VALUES/CHALK

This slate is a little harder than normal mostly because the Yankees face a formidable pitcher. Teams like the Astros and Indians will be popular and I cover that with a couple of my stacks. It's still wise to look at the game with the highest over/under and that's the Brewers-Diamondbacks at 10 runs. Both Jordan Lyles and Merrill Kelly have been inconsistent throughout the year and that's why their ERAs are almost at 5.00. The biggest outlier is that Lyles has a .392 OBP and 2.21 HR/9 allowed to lefties. That's problematic for a lefty-heavy lineup that features Ketel Marte ($4,000) and Eduardo Escobar ($3,800) at the top, as well as Jarrod Dyson ($2,700) and Jake Lamb ($2,700) at great value. Kelly doesn't allow as much power to lefty bats so I maybe wouldn't spend on Christian Yelich ($4,800), but Yasmani Grandal ($3,100) and Eric Thames ($2,800) are in play.

The Mariners-Blue Jays game is in a similar mold with two iffy pitchers on the mound between Justus Sheffield and Trent Thornton. It's easier to trust Toronto in this spot, but Thornton has subpar numbers against both sides of the plate and a .358 OBP allowed to righties. The Mariners are full of value plays, though Omar Narvaez ($2,400) and Tim Lopes ($2,400) have the team's best OBPs against righty pitchers in the last month. If you don't want to spend on Bo Bichette ($3,800), the Blue Jays also have a cheap lineup with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($2,900), Justin Smoak ($2,600) and Brandon Drury ($2,300) among the many options below $3,000.

Matthew Boyd turned things around last outing, but I'm not sure he's completely over his struggles and the Twins may be worth a gamble in more of a GPP role. Nelson Cruz ($3,800) is the clear choice at a discount because of matchup while Miguel Sano ($3,300) has a .395 OBP in his last 43 plate appearances against lefty arms and Jonathan Schoop ($2,500) is at .375 in his last 32. 

Dylan Cease hasn't had success all season and has allowed a .430 OBP to 86 lefties faced. I'd be all over the Rangers, but their beat up with Willie Calhoun ($3,700), Shin-Soo Choo ($3,500) and Rougned Odor ($3,000) possibly the only healthy lefty bats. I'd also look at the Reds against Mitch Keller, who has allowed a .420 OBP to both sides of the plate in his five outings. They have some value options with lefty bats Tucker Barnhart ($2,700) and Josh VanMeter ($2,700) both with OBPs above .400 against righties since the break.

STACKS

Astros vs. Jose Suarez (Angels)

(2B Jose Altuve - $4,300), (SS Alex Bregman - $4,200), (1B Yuli Gurriel - $3,300)

The Astros may be the most popular stack on the slate and it'll be hard to completely avoid them. Suarez has allowed a .417 OBP and 3.28 HR/9 to righties, and made it 3.1 innings when he faced Houston at the beginning of July. The Angels lost that game 11-10. You can grab any righty for this stack, though Altuve, Bregman and George Springer ($4,100) is the best route. If you need to save money, Robinson Chirinos ($2,600) and Abraham Toro ($2,300) are at excellent prices.

Indians vs. Jakob Junis (Royals)

(SS Francisco Lindor - $3,900), (OF Greg Allen - $2,100), (3B Jose Ramirez - $3,400)

Junis has been solid since the break, yet this is the sixth time facing the Indians this season and the first five weren't great, allowing 35 hits and 21 runs in 29 innings. This stack is mostly a play on those previous matchups. Against Junis, Lindor is 15-for-29 with three home runs and Ramirez has a .367 OBP in 30 PA. Allen is a little cheaper and has a .407 OBP in his last 81 PA against righty hurlers.

Phillies vs. Hector Noesi (Marlins)

(OF Bryce Harper - $4,100), (OF Corey Dickerson - $3,200), (SS Jean Segura - $3,000)

Prior to his three starts this year, Noesi last pitched in the league in 2015. There's likely a reason for that because he's allowed 16 runs and six homers in his three outings. The Phillies aren't hitting that well, but I'll still take a shot with their best bats. Harper is worth a look even if you don't stack them with a .396 OBP and .309 ISO in his last 101 PA against righties.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Adam Zdroik plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: zdroik, DraftKings: rotozdroik, Yahoo: StreakMaster.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Adam Zdroik
Adam writes on sports ranging from NFL and MLB to soccer and college basketball. Outside of writing, he has worked with a professional soccer team, Sporting Kansas City, and in the stats department at ESPN. He is a former Streak for the Cash winner and Michigan State graduate. 2018 and 2017 Finalist for FSWA Soccer Writer of the Year.
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