This article is part of our The Z Files series.
Roman philosopher Seneca purportedly said, "Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity." Today's discussion is about preparation. Later in the season when a competitor marvels at how lucky you are having a particular player in your lineup, you can smile knowingly; it wasn't luck.
We're now three-quarters of the way through the season. Teams have 13 remaining series, some of which started Thursday. Below is a table with each team's remaining schedule, beginning with today, Friday the 16th. Following that is another table displaying the number of games remaining, the number home and away, the aggregate record of the opposition, the aggregate wOBA of the opposing hitters and the aggregate wOBA allowed by the opposing pitchers.
Before presenting the data, let's discuss some of the shortcomings of the second table, quantifying each squad's schedule. The obvious thing to keep in mind is the composition of the rosters has changed, especially after the trade deadline. That said, it's better to use the season-long records and wOBA data and not the smaller sample of the last month. The manual adjustment we each can make based on lineup changes is better than relying on an insufficient sample with too much noise.
Another warning: regulars on teams with more remaining games won't always play more games than similar players with fewer left on the docket. Those with more off days may not need to hit the pine for some rest. Not to mention that come September, teams with a playoff berth or seeding
Roman philosopher Seneca purportedly said, "Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity." Today's discussion is about preparation. Later in the season when a competitor marvels at how lucky you are having a particular player in your lineup, you can smile knowingly; it wasn't luck.
We're now three-quarters of the way through the season. Teams have 13 remaining series, some of which started Thursday. Below is a table with each team's remaining schedule, beginning with today, Friday the 16th. Following that is another table displaying the number of games remaining, the number home and away, the aggregate record of the opposition, the aggregate wOBA of the opposing hitters and the aggregate wOBA allowed by the opposing pitchers.
Before presenting the data, let's discuss some of the shortcomings of the second table, quantifying each squad's schedule. The obvious thing to keep in mind is the composition of the rosters has changed, especially after the trade deadline. That said, it's better to use the season-long records and wOBA data and not the smaller sample of the last month. The manual adjustment we each can make based on lineup changes is better than relying on an insufficient sample with too much noise.
Another warning: regulars on teams with more remaining games won't always play more games than similar players with fewer left on the docket. Those with more off days may not need to hit the pine for some rest. Not to mention that come September, teams with a playoff berth or seeding on the line will ride their hot hands while locked-in, playoff-bound teams may keep their guys fresh, playing them a little less down the stretch. Still, the more games, the greater the player's opportunity to contribute to a winning fantasy lineup, especially if a team with a higher number of games is fighting for a postseason berth.
The final point pertains to wOBA (weighted on base average). It's a down-and-dirty proxy for run-scoring potential, though it has flaws. It's not park corrected but when looking at an average over 40-something games, the highs and lows largely balance out. The larger issue is that wOBA is fine for runs and RBI but when making lineup decisions, we look on a more granular level. How many homers does a staff give up? Does the venue embellish or suppress power? How vulnerable are lineups to a strikeout pitcher? Admittedly, I could have included some of this data, but I'm not sure it's actionable with respect to picking up a player now for the rest of the season. Pitching matchups are obviously unclear, plus rosters will undergo another change come September 1. All of this data is part of the Weekly Hitter Rankings, so you can micro-manage your roster on a weekly basis.
With that as a backdrop, here's the remaining schedule for all 30 MLB teams:
| TM | AUG 16-18 | AUG 19-22 | AUG 23-25 | AUG 26 - AUG 29 | AUG 30 - SEPT 1 | SEPT 2 - 5 | SEPT 6 - 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARZ | 3 vs SF | 3 vs COL | 3 at MIL | 2 at SF | 4 vs LAD | 3 vs SD | 3 at CIN |
| ATL | 3 vs LAD | 3 vs MIA | 3 at NYM | 2 at TOR | 3 vs CWS | 2 vs TOR | 4 vs WAS |
| BAL | 3 at BOS | 3 vs KC | 4 vs TB | 2 at WAS | 3 at KC | 3 at TB | 4 vs TEX |
| BOS | 3 vs BAL | 2 vs PHI | 3 at SD | 2 at COL | 3 at LAA | 3 vs MIN | 4 vs NYY |
| CHC | 3 at PIT | 3 vs SF | 3 vs WAS | 3 at NYM | 3 vs MIL | 2 vs SEA | 4 at MIL |
| CWS | 3 at LAA | 3 at MIN | 4 vs TEX | 3 vs MIN | 3 at ATL | 4 at CLE | 3 vs LAA |
| CIN | 3 vs STL | 3 vs SD | 3 at PIT | 4 at MIA | 4 at STL | 4 vs PHI | 3 vs ARZ |
| CLE | 3 at NYY | 3 at NYM | 3 vs KC | 3 at DET | 3 at TB | 4 vs CWS | 3 at MIN |
| COL | 3 vs MIA | 3 at ARZ | 4 at STL | 2 vs BOS | 4 vs PIT | 3 at LAD | 3 at SD |
| DET | 3 at TB | 4 at HOU | 3 at MIN | 3 vs CLE | 4 vs MIN | 3 at KC | 3 at OAK |
| HOU | 3 at OAK | 4 vs DET | 3 vs LAA | 3 vs TB | 3 at TOR | 2 at MIL | 4 vs SEA |
| KC | 3 vs NYM | 3 at BAL | 3 at CLE | 4 vs OAK | 3 vs BAL | 3 vs DET | 3 at MIA |
| LAA | 3 vs CWS | 4 at TEX | 3 at HOU | 2 vs TEX | 3 vs BOS | 3 at OAK | 3 at CWS |
| LAD | 3 at ATL | 3 vs TOR | 3 vs NYY | 3 at SD | 4 at ARZ | 3 vs COL | 3 vs SF |
| MIA | 3 at COL | 3 at ATL | 3 vs PHI | 4 vs CIN | 3 at WAS | 3 at PIT | 3 vs KC |
| MIL | 3 at WAS | 3 at STL | 3 vs ARZ | 3 vs STL | 3 at CHC | 2 vs HOU | 4 vs CHC |
| MIN | 3 at TEX | 3 vs CWS | 3 vs DET | 3 at CWS | 4 at DET | 3 at BOS | 3 vs CLE |
| NYM | 3 at KC | 3 vs CLE | 3 vs ATL | 3 vs CHC | 3 at PHI | 3 at WAS | 3 vs PHI |
| NYY | 3 vs CLE | 3 at OAK | 3 at LAD | 3 at SEA | 3 vs OAK | 3 vs TEX | 4 at BOS |
| OAK | 3 vs HOU | 3 vs NYY | 2 vs SF | 4 at KC | 3 at NYY | 3 vs LAA | 3 vs DET |
| PHI | 3 vs SD | 2 at BOS | 3 at MIA | 3 vs PIT | 3 vs NYM | 4 at CIN | 3 at NYM |
| PIT | 3 vs CHC | 4 vs WAS | 3 vs CIN | 3 at PHI | 4 at COL | 3 vs MIA | 3 vs STL |
| SD | 3 at PHI | 3 at CIN | 3 vs BOS | 3 vs LAD | 4 at SF | 3 at ARZ | 3 vs COL |
| SEA | 3 at TOR | 3 at TB | 3 vs TOR | 3 vs NYY | 4 at TEX | 2 at CHC | 4 at HOU |
| SF | 3 at ARZ | 3 at CHC | 2 at OAK | 2 vs ARZ | 4 vs SD | 4 at STL | 3 at LAD |
| STL | 3 at CIN | 3 vs MIL | 4 vs COL | 3 at MIL | 4 vs CIN | 4 vs SF | 3 at PIT |
| TB | 3 vs DET | 3 vs SEA | 4 at BAL | 3 at HOU | 3 vs CLE | 3 vs BAL | 4 vs TOR |
| TEX | 3 vs MIN | 4 vs LAA | 4 at CWS | 2 at LAA | 4 vs SEA | 3 at NYY | 4 at BAL |
| TOR | 3 vs SEA | 3 at LAD | 3 at SEA | 2 vs ATL | 3 vs HOU | 2 at ATL | 4 at TB |
| WAS | 3 vs MIL | 4 at PIT | 3 at CHC | 2 vs BAL | 3 vs MIA | 3 vs NYM | 4 at ATL |
| TM | SEPT 9-12 | SEPT 13-15 | SEPT 16-19 | SEPT 20-22 | SEPT 23-26 | SEPT 27-29 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARZ | 4 at NYM | 3 vs CIN | 3 vs MIA | 3 at SD | 3 vs STL | 3 vs SD |
| ATL | 4 at PHI | 3 at WAS | 3 vs PHI | 3 vs SF | 2 at KC | 3 at NYM |
| BAL | 3 vs LAD | 4 at DET | 3 vs TOR | 3 vs SEA | 3 at TOR | 3 at BOS |
| BOS | 3 at TOR | 2 at PHI | 3 vs SF | 4 at TB | 3 at TEX | 3 vs BAL |
| CHC | 4 at SD | 3 vs PIT | 3 vs CIN | 4 vs STL | 3 at PIT | 3 at STL |
| CWS | 3 vs KC | 3 at SEA | 3 at MIN | 3 at DET | 3 vs CLE | 4 vs DET |
| CIN | 3 at SEA | 3 at ARZ | 3 at CHC | 3 vs NYM | 3 vs MIL | 3 at PIT |
| CLE | 3 at LAA | 3 vs MIN | 3 vs DET | 3 vs PHI | 3 at CWS | 3 at WAS |
| COL | 3 vs STL | 3 vs SD | 3 vs NYM | 3 at LAD | 3 at SF | 3 vs MIL |
| DET | 3 vs NYY | 4 vs BAL | 3 at CLE | 3 vs CWS | 3 vs MIN | 4 at CWS |
| HOU | 4 vs OAK | 3 at KC | 2 vs TEX | 3 vs LAA | 2 at SEA | 4 at LAA |
| KC | 3 at CWS | 3 vs HOU | 3 at OAK | 4 at MIN | 2 vs ATL | 3 vs MIN |
| LAA | 3 vs CLE | 3 vs TB | 3 at NYY | 3 at HOU | 2 vs OAK | 4 vs HOU |
| LAD | 3 at BAL | 3 at NYM | 2 vs TB | 3 vs COL | 3 at SD | 3 at SF |
| MIA | 4 vs MIL | 3 at SF | 3 at ARZ | 3 vs WAS | 4 at NYM | 3 at PHI |
| MIL | 4 at MIA | 3 at STL | 4 vs SD | 3 vs PIT | 3 at CIN | 3 at COL |
| MIN | 3 vs WAS | 3 at CLE | 3 vs CWS | 4 vs KC | 3 at DET | 3 at KC |
| NYM | 4 vs ARZ | 3 vs LAD | 3 at COL | 3 at CIN | 4 vs MIA | 3 vs ATL |
| NYY | 3 at DET | 3 at TOR | 3 vs LAA | 3 vs TOR | 2 at TB | 3 at TEX |
| OAK | 4 at HOU | 3 at TEX | 3 vs KC | 3 vs TEX | 2 at LAA | 4 at SEA |
| PHI | 4 vs ATL | 2 vs BOS | 3 at ATL | 3 at CLE | 5 at WAS | 3 vs MIA |
| PIT | 4 at SF | 3 at CHC | 3 vs SEA | 3 at MIL | 3 vs CHC | 3 vs CIN |
| SD | 4 vs CHC | 3 at COL | 4 at MIL | 3 vs ARZ | 3 vs LAD | 3 at ARZ |
| SEA | 3 vs CIN | 3 vs CWS | 3 at PIT | 3 at BAL | 2 vs HOU | 4 vs OAK |
| SF | 4 vs PIT | 3 vs MIA | 3 at BOS | 3 at ATL | 3 vs COL | 3 vs LAD |
| STL | 3 at COL | 3 vs MIL | 3 vs WAS | 4 at CHC | 3 at ARZ | 3 vs CHC |
| TB | 3 at TEX | 3 at LAA | 2 at LAD | 4 vs BOS | 2 vs NYY | 3 at TOR |
| TEX | 3 vs TB | 3 vs OAK | 2 at HOU | 3 at OAK | 3 vs BOS | 3 vs NYY |
| TOR | 3 vs BOS | 3 vs NYY | 3 at BAL | 3 at NYY | 3 vs BAL | 3 vs TB |
| WAS | 3 at MIN | 3 vs ATL | 3 at STL | 3 at MIA | 5 vs PHI | 3 vs CLE |
*ATL plays at COL on August 26
Now here's the aggregate data:
| TM | TOTAL GMS | HOME GMS | AWAY GMS | W/L% | Hit wOBA | Pitch wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARZ | 40 | 25 | 15 | 0.500 | 0.317 | 0.315 |
| ATL | 39 | 21 | 18 | 0.585 | 0.317 | 0.322 |
| BAL | 41 | 20 | 21 | 0.322 | 0.320 | 0.322 |
| BOS | 38 | 18 | 20 | 0.520 | 0.322 | 0.329 |
| CHC | 41 | 21 | 20 | 0.529 | 0.317 | 0.322 |
| CWS | 42 | 20 | 22 | 0.454 | 0.323 | 0.327 |
| CIN | 42 | 19 | 23 | 0.475 | 0.316 | 0.323 |
| CLE | 40 | 16 | 24 | 0.598 | 0.320 | 0.326 |
| COL | 41 | 22 | 19 | 0.446 | 0.319 | 0.314 |
| DET | 43 | 20 | 23 | 0.305 | 0.328 | 0.318 |
| HOU | 40 | 23 | 17 | 0.639 | 0.318 | 0.327 |
| KC | 40 | 21 | 19 | 0.355 | 0.322 | 0.322 |
| LAA | 39 | 20 | 19 | 0.484 | 0.332 | 0.314 |
| LAD | 39 | 17 | 22 | 0.659 | 0.321 | 0.326 |
| MIA | 42 | 17 | 25 | 0.375 | 0.321 | 0.325 |
| MIL | 41 | 19 | 22 | 0.521 | 0.319 | 0.317 |
| MIN | 41 | 19 | 22 | 0.603 | 0.310 | 0.331 |
| NYM | 41 | 26 | 15 | 0.512 | 0.322 | 0.320 |
| NYY | 39 | 15 | 24 | 0.659 | 0.323 | 0.322 |
| OAK | 40 | 20 | 20 | 0.570 | 0.325 | 0.305 |
| PHI | 41 | 18 | 23 | 0.521 | 0.316 | 0.334 |
| PIT | 42 | 25 | 17 | 0.417 | 0.318 | 0.339 |
| SD | 42 | 19 | 23 | 0.467 | 0.316 | 0.317 |
| SEA | 40 | 18 | 22 | 0.410 | 0.322 | 0.339 |
| SF | 40 | 19 | 21 | 0.500 | 0.301 | 0.317 |
| STL | 43 | 24 | 19 | 0.529 | 0.307 | 0.310 |
| TB | 40 | 22 | 18 | 0.582 | 0.324 | 0.288 |
| TEX | 41 | 23 | 18 | 0.496 | 0.323 | 0.341 |
| TOR | 38 | 20 | 18 | 0.411 | 0.310 | 0.332 |
| WAS | 42 | 22 | 20 | 0.542 | 0.330 | 0.311 |
The fun part of data of this nature is we all can interpret and apply it as we see fit, in context with our league format and team needs. Here are some of my general observations.
With all the weather issues early in the season, it's odd that the Red Sox have the fewest remaining games. Boston has a pair of upcoming five-game weeks, each including a two-game set in a National League park, albeit one of those series is in Coors. It will be a tough couple of weeks for Red Sox outfielders since J.D. Martinez will have to chase some flies. On the other hand, the extra off days will come in handy, allowing the club to use a four-man rotation for a bit while they figure out the fifth spot.
On the surface, it appears the Yankees, Dodgers and Astros have the toughest remaining schedules based on opponent winning percentage. However, if you think about it, it's not a coincidence. It makes sense since these three juggernauts have beat up on the teams they've played already while not yet laying the wood to the clubs still on tap.
It's only three games, but it's nice to see the Rockies play an extra series at Coors in the final quarter of the season.
On the flip side, the Marlins are away from South Beach a lot, which bodes well for their hitters (hey, a couple are fantasy relevant) but isn't so good for their up-and-coming pitchers.
Focusing on the AL Central, the winning percentage of the remaining teams for the Twins and Indians is about the same. Both have more road games, though Cleveland has the second fewer percentage of home games left. Minnesota faces weaker hitters and pitchers so on paper, they're in a better position than the Tribe. It will be fun to see how it plays out.
Shifting to the NL Central, the quality of opposition for the Cubs, Brewers and Cardinals is too close to call. If there's an edge, it goes to St.Louis and their home-heavy schedule.
The Nationals could use Max Scherzer back as they line up to face one of the strongest aggregate offenses. The Angels and their makeshift pitching staff have the dubious distinction of drawing the best aggregate offenses, at least in terms of wOBA.
The Rays have an interesting schedule. On paper they face the toughest pitching -- they have a couple of series with the Orioles, but they also draw the loaded rotations of the Astros, Dodgers and Indians .
If you're looking for under-the-radar hitters to emerge in the final quarter of the season, check out the bats in Arlington. Not only do the Rangers play a lot of home games in one of the best hitting venues in the league, they're slated to step in the box against the worst aggregate pitching, at least according to wOBA.
Other squads with weaker pitching in store include the Pirates, Mariners and Phillies.
While it's better to be lucky than good, the best pathway to success is preparation. Hopefully you can glean something from the above information, giving your team an edge down the stretch.
