The Z Files: Finding Production from Weaker Lineups

There's a rule of thumb in fantasy baseball: focus on batters hitting high in the order for productive teams. The problem is, depending on the league size, demand exceeds supply. This is especially true later in the season when injuries have depleted even the best lineups. Still, when searching to fill a hole or upgrade a spot, most gravitate towards players on the higher-scoring offenses.

As such, some positive contributors could be overlooked, stranded on the list of available players or even inactive on reserve. It's easy to get complacent this time of the season but now isn't the time to stop grinding. Below are 10 hitters with positive production over the past month. Most are from second-division teams. Availability is obviously league dependent, but those already rostered make for intriguing trade targets.

Included with each player is 5x5 rotisserie earnings from the past 30 days in standard 10, 12 and 15-team mixed leagues. Hitters are listed in order of earnings.

Jorge Soler, OF, Kansas City Royals

For the season, Soler has 31 of the quietest homers in the game, buoying a .861 OPS. Over the last month, the former Cubs prospect has blasted eight long balls, en route to a 1.081 OPS. The crazy thing is, Soler is averaging just under eight homers a month, so the past 30 days isn't simply a hot stretch.

Soler's numbers aren't a fluke either as his Statcast data is off the charts, most notably average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrels. Sure, his 26.8 percent K% is a bit high, but not egregious in today's climate. If you're looking to make a move in homers, Soler could be one of the more affordable targets since you're paying more of a generic sticker price than a brand name markup.

Anthony Santander, OF, Baltimore Orioles

Santander was recalled on June 7 and ever since, he's been a mainstay in the Orioles outfield. He entered the campaign behind Austin Hays on the prospect depth chart, but a solid showing from Santander in combination with another injury-riddled season for Hays flip-flopped the young fly chasers, at least for now.

For the season, Santander has slashed a modest .297/.342/.498, fueled by a stingy 16.6 percent K%. Over the past 30 days, the 24-year old switch-hitter has posted a .320/.351/.553 line, dropping his whiffs to 15.3 percent. Sure, he's enjoyed some batted ball fortune over the last month, but even his season-long .279 xBA (expected batting average) is helpful, especially considering the league average is .253 -- the third-lowest mark since 2010, but up five ticks from last year's decade-worst .248 level.

Santander isn't crushing the other categories, though he has slugged five homers over the past three weeks, taking advantage of Camden Yards in the summertime. If you're at the bottom of a tightly bunched group in batting average, there's still time for Santander to aid in a category ascension.

Bryan Reynolds, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

Originally thought to be a placeholder until the Pirates intended outfield of Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco and Corey Dickerson were all healthy, continued health woes kept Reynolds in the lineup and he's responded. Following the recent trade of Dickerson, Reynolds has wrapped up a full-time role the rest of the season, if not longer.

Reynolds' last 30 days is below his seasonal output, though he's been on fire the past couple of weeks. With a season-long slash of .334/.406/.525, Reynolds is playing a bit out over his skis, however his .297 xBA and .360 xwOBA (expected weighted on base average) are both fantasy-friendly.

The Bucs are 19th in terms of average runs a game and could really use Josh Bell to revert to first-half form. Still, with Reynolds batting out of the two hole, his production should continue to be a plus down the stretch.

Niko Goodrum, 1B/2B/SS/OF, Detroit Tigers

Goodrum breaks the string of OF-only players, adding 1B, 2B and SS to his positional resume. He also is the first to count steals among his contributions, albeit with a modest four over the past month. That said, he wasn't caught, and sometime players set personal goals in lost seasons, so maybe he'll keep running to try to reach the 20 stolen base mark, needing just eight more. Who knows, if he attains that in mid-September, maybe he shoots for 25. Of all stats, steals is the easiest to control, given the opportunity. So long as Goodrum continues to post a good success rate, there's no reason for the Tigers to tame his advances.

Of course, opportunity is bred from getting on base and Goodrum has logged a tepid .328 OBP for the year. However, he's boosted that to .363 the past month. Even if his current pace pulls back, Goodrum walks at a 10 percent clip so he should continue to mosey on down to first base enough to maintain a steady stream of swipes.

Brian Anderson, 3B/OF, Miami Marlins

Anderson is the perfect player for this type of analysis. On May 31, he was slashing a meek .232/.315/.353, a likely drop for all but the deepest of mixed leagues. However, a .301/.390/.583 June thrust Anderson back to fantasy relevance, though a .208/.256/.353 July forced him back to the trash heap, likely souring many. Since, all Anderson has done is post a 1.307 OPS in August, featuring four blasts.

Obviously, his current heater can burn out at any time. That said, a 12.5 percent K% since July 23 is a good indicator Anderson is comfortable and seeing the ball well. His early-season woes could cause pause for some, whether for picking him up or activating him from reserve. Hopefully you've already done so, but if not Anderson warrants an active lineup spot, at least until his strikeouts pick up.

Leury Garcia, SS/OF, Chicago White Sox

After a trio of OF-only, Garcia marks the third straight batter eligible at multiple spots. As has been discussed extensively in this space, lineup flexibility is a must to optimize production.

Garcia is an example of an oft-overlook type of player, an under-the-radar run-scoring machine. The White Sox are 28th in terms of runs scored, but Garcia is on pace to cross the plate over 100 times. In addition, like Goodrum, Garcia has a dozen bags on the season, including a perfect 4-for-4 the past month. The best way to approach runs is still to maximize plate appearances. However, sometimes that isn't sufficient, so looking at someone like Garcia could provide the necessary boost.

Teoscar Hernandez, OF, Toronto Blue Jays

Of all the subjects discussed so far, Hernandez's underlying metrics are the most concerning in terms of maintaining his current pace. His 34 percent K% since the break is masked by a .333 BABIP, well above his season-long .277 level. Further, Hernandez isn't running, so he lacks a safe floor. That is, his rest-of-season utility revolves around his ability to maintain elevated power, as he's knocked seven out of the yard since the break, along with continuing to be on the good side of Lady Luck.

J.D. Davis, 3B/OF, New York Mets

Davis is the reason the introduction didn't say the featured players are all on second-division teams. Imagine the venom from Mets fans if that slipped in? The truth is, the Mets are on a roll and Davis is a stealth reason why. Apologies, I don't have NFBC Main Even data, only that from The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, but in that 300-plus team tourney, he's only rostered in 93 percent of leagues. In the 12-team NFBC Memorial Day Second Chance contest, rostership falls to 53 percent. Davis is on a paltry 10 percent of rosters in ESPN leagues. So, despite being a positive contributor for the last 30 days in all three formats, he remains unrostered in some leagues.

Fueling Davis's second-half surge is an unsustainable .460 BABIP (the Lord Obvious understatement of the day). However, a 12.5 percent BB% and 20 percent K% suggest Davis' approach is contributing to his good fortune. Additionally, he's only swatted three homers in this stretch with a modest 11 runs and 10 RBI, so unless you're in the unique position of being set in HR, RBI and runs but in need of a batting average boost, it's understandable why Davis is so widely available.

The catch is, the bulk of Davis' production has come in the past two weeks where he's slashed .389/.477/.750 with a 13.6 percent BB% and 18.2 percent K%. The even better plate skills are the reason to ride the streak, but be ready with an exit strategy once they wane.

Manuel Margot, OF, San Diego Padres

Margot is at the other end of the BABIP spectrum, as he's had a productive month with a seemingly unlucky hit rate. That said, he has four homers in that span, and if BABIP is a proxy for hard-hit balls, it penalizes power hitters. This isn't to say Margot is a power hitter, but he did have an elevated month, matching his four pilfers.

Something admittedly not discussed enough is players more relevant in points leagues scoring. Over the past month, Margot has a 16.1 percent BB% and 12.4 percent K%. This is points league gold, pure gold, especially in leagues with negative points for punchouts. Margot isn't going to keep up this pace, but especially in points leagues and roto players looking for some bags without sacrificing too much elsewhere, climb on Margot's back but be ready to jump off when his plate skills revert to career levels.

Brandon Dixon, 1B/OF, Detroit Tigers

Dixon made his MLB debut with the Reds last season, batting an anemic .178/.218/.356 over 124 plate appearances. Hence, it's no surprise his last 30 days line of .310/.383/.512 is attributed to luck. Dixon has a pair of homers and steals in this stint, but he's also fanned at a 29.8 percent clip while walking only 7.4 percent of the time.

Trust me, I'd much rather be revealing underlying metrics, portending a break out that's capable of carrying you to a 2019 championship, but alas, it just isn't the case. Chalk another up to good fortune and proceed accordingly.