FanDuel MLB: Friday Breakdown
FanDuel MLB: Friday Breakdown

This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.

Friday sets up nicely in terms of roster variety and mostly clear skies. Walker Buehler is the easy choice at pitcher, but there are plenty of value options that will be looked at, especially for those looking to stack the Yankees and Red Sox.

PITCHING

There isn't an outstanding ace on the slate, which means Brad Keller ($8,800) may be the most popular pitcher. While he's never been a top arm, a matchup against the Tigers changes that. He's gone at least 6.1 innings in his last five starts and reached 52 fantasy points against Detroit a month ago. The Tigers remain near the bottom of the charts with a 26.0 K% and .288 wOBA (it was .282 before Thursday's game) against righties since the All-Star Break. Wade Miley ($9,200) is in a similarly good situation against the Orioles, who own a 28.8 K% against southpaws since the beginning of July. Miley hasn't allowed more than five hits in his last nine starts and while his 20.6 K% is subpar, he has at least six Ks in his last three.

If you prefer to spend, Walker Buehler ($11,400) is the guy to own after racking up 15 strikeouts last start against the Padres. That came at home where he has a dominant .221 wOBA allowed and 2.72 xFIP. The Diamondbacks don't have terrible numbers, but Buehler has 20 strikeouts in his last two starts against them (15 IP). Stephen Strasburg ($11,000) could post similar numbers, but he gave up nine runs last start and the Mets are cruising.

I'd rather back a side between Julio Teheran ($9,000) and Caleb Smith ($9,500). Teheran is a slight road favorite mostly because the Marlins can't hit with a 25.5 K% and .270 OBP against righty arms since the ASB. However, his upside is limited as he rarely surpasses six strikeouts. Smith is more of a GPP option with a little more upside. He has 13 Ks in 12 IP against the Braves this season and they also have an ugly 27.1 K% against lefties in the last month.

You could look at Shane Bieber ($10,700), though he's a bit expensive to use against the Twins. Trevor Bauer ($10,500) may be a little more useful because of his upside, hitting double-digit strikeouts numerous times. The Cubs could go off, but they are below average with a 23.3 K% against righty hurlers in the last month. 

I wouldn't oppose stretching for lefties Marco Gonzales ($7,300) or Drew Smyly ($7,600) in winnable spots. The Rays and Giants have solid numbers against southpaws, though respective 26.4 and 23.6 K%s are worth going against. Chris Archer ($7,700) is also in that mold, albeit as a righty with at least 30 fantasy points in four of his last six starts.

KEY VALUES/CHALK

Unsurprisingly, the Yankees will be one of the more popular teams to back against Sean Reid-Foley. In limited appearances, he's allowed a .417 OBP to 48 lefties faced. That points to the trio of Mike Tauchman ($3,500), Didi Gregorius ($3,400) and Brett Gardner ($3,200). Those are decent prices given New York's .362 wOBA against righty arms since the break. Of course, it's more than reasonable to back righty Gio Urshela ($3,900), who has four homers the last two days. The Astros will also draw a few eyes against Dylan Bundy, who has allowed 2.41 HR/9 and a .366 wOBA to righty bats. Yuli Gurriel ($3,500) is the best play according to the numbers with a .458 OBP and .489 ISO in his last 96 plate appearances against righties. Either way, Houston will be a popular stack with Michael Brantley ($4,100), Yordan Alvarez ($4,300) and Alex Bregman ($4,000) sporting OBPs above .400 against righty pitchers in the last month.

The Cardinals-Pirates game should produce runs with Dakota Hudson and Chris Archer on the mound. Hudson has allowed a .399 OBP to lefties and Archer has been bad against both sides allowing a combined 2.09 HR/9. I prefer the Pirate lefties slightly with Josh Bell ($3,600) and Bryan Reynolds ($3,600) the more expensive options, though Colin Moran ($2,900), Adam Frazier ($2,800) and Melky Cabrera ($2,500) can all be useful. Marcell Ozuna ($3,700) and Kolten Wong ($2,700) are the only Cards who have an OBP above .350 against righties in the last month and Ozuna's been out most of that time.

If you want to bank on power, Robbie Ray has allowed multiple homers in six of his last 10 starts and while his overall numbers aren't bad, it's because these issues didn't pop up until June. Cody Bellinger ($4,700) is enticing, but 20 of Ray's 23 homers allowed have come against righties. If A.J. Pollock ($3,500) returns to the squad, he'd be my top choice along with Justin Turner ($3,400) and a string of value plays in Tyler White ($2,700), Kris Negron ($2,400) and Russell Martin ($2,200).

STACKS

Red Sox vs. Jaime Barria (Angels)

(OF Mookie Betts - $4,300), (3B Rafael Devers - $4,400), (SS Xander Bogaerts - $4,000)

It's unlikely Barria lasts long at Fenway with a .369 OBP allowed to righties and more than two homers per nine allowed to both sides of the plate. The Red Sox also crush at home against righty arms with a .224 ISO and .375 wOBA since the break. If you want to capitalize on those numbers, this stack will do it. They all have OBPs above .400 in the last month against righties while Devers and Bogaerts both have ISOs above .300. If you need to save money, Christian Vazquez ($2,700) and Jackie Bradley Jr. ($2,600) are stretches.

Phillies vs. Tyler Beede (Giants)

(SS Jean Segura - $3,500), (OF Bryce Harper - $4,300), (OF Corey Dickerson - $3,100)

Beede hasn't done anything good of late, allowing 28 hits and 13 runs in his last three starts, one of those against the Phillies (5 IP, 10 H, 4 ER). This stack also doesn't break the bank as Dickerson is fairly cheap with a .385 OBP and .397 wOBA against righties this season. For the other two, Segura has a .437 OBP in his last 71 PA against righties and Harper is at .411 in his last 73. If you want another piece, Scott Kingery ($3,400) is my next choice.

Blue Jays vs. J.A. Happ (Yankees)

(SS Bo Bichette - $3,800), (OF Lourdes Gurriel - $3,100), (OF Brandon Drury - $2,800)

Everyone will look at the Yankees bats first, but the over/under is 11 and early money was on the Blue Jays. That's because Happ has allowed 13 runs in his last three starts and has poor numbers against everyone, allowing about two homers per nine to each side. At this point, Bichette has to be in every Blue Jays stack with a double in his last nine games. He also has a .643 OBP in 14 PA against lefties. Gurriel provides a bit more power with a .406 wOBA in his last 71 PA against lefty arms. If you want some lefty-lefty matchups, I'd consider Justin Smoak ($2,600) and Cavan Biggio ($3,600).

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Adam Zdroik plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: zdroik, DraftKings: rotozdroik, Yahoo: StreakMaster.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Adam Zdroik
Adam writes on sports ranging from NFL and MLB to soccer and college basketball. Outside of writing, he has worked with a professional soccer team, Sporting Kansas City, and in the stats department at ESPN. He is a former Streak for the Cash winner and Michigan State graduate. 2018 and 2017 Finalist for FSWA Soccer Writer of the Year.
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