This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
10 games await Sunday's getaway day, with not many top arms on the slate. Choosing wisely on the bump appears paramount to success with no sure bet available.
Pitching Breakdown
Blake Snell ($10,000) headlines and looks far overpriced, even without any other top choices. He's sort of rounding into form? Maybe? He's gone for 24 or more FDP in three straight, allowing two or fewer runs in each outing while fanning 21, but hasn't lasted more than six frames since May 24. The White Sox' 24.4 percent K rate offers some potential, but their 11th-ranked .326 wOBA offers at least some pause. This price suggests 2018 Snell, and that makes him a GPP option only for me.
I want very badly to just brush past Lance Lynn ($9,600), but he's been worth 30 FDP or more in all but four starts this season. He's averaged 52 FDP in two starts against Houston. Everything about the name says stay away, but everything in his form says buy, buy, buy.
Lefty James Paxton ($9,300) is in solid form, going for 28 FDP or more in three straight and five of his last six. Colorado remains a risky offense to go against with a lefty opposing them, but it's not quite the normal scare on the road here losing six straight and seven of eight.
Where does that leave us? Squarely on Kyle Hendricks ($8,700) against San Diego, where ownership figures to be very, very high. The Padres rank 22nd against righties with a .308 wOBA and 90 wRC+ while striking out a league-high 26.3 percent of the time. The only red flag appears to be the ownership levels, and maybe the play being too obvious.
Michael Pineda ($8,400) could be a sneaky option. He's allowed one run in each of his last three starts, striking out 20 in 18.0 innings. Oakland fans only 20.8 percent of the time, capping some upside, but there's a stable floor.
If paying down, perhaps Dylan Cease ($6,800) is the right call. He's allowed seven runs in 11 innings, but has also fanned 13 during that span resulting in a 28.5 FDP average. Tampa's 23.3 percent fan rate should play up here with Cease's propensity to seek Ks at the expense of working deep into the contest.
Key Chalk/Value
After Saturday's explosion, it would be irresponsible to not start with the Red Sox. Camden Yards is playing like the Coors Field of the East, and Sunday starter Asher Wojciechowski ($5,700) has slumped to a 5.74 ERA while allowing 2.3 HR/9. Wojciechowski has been particularly vulnerable to lefties, so building around Rafael Devers ($4,500) works, but Andrew Benintendi ($3,500) and Brock Holt ($2,600) offer cheap ins.
Boston's arch rivals figure to be trendy against Rockies' struggling starter German Marquez ($6,400), who has allowed 19 runs over his last three starts of 14.2 frames. Luke Voit ($4,000) and Gio Urshela ($3,300) actually own the best splits against righties, and could offer a pivot from the obvious top Yankee bats.
Kansas City-Cleveland looks like an under the radar game to attack with a total of 11 runs as Zach Plesac ($6,900) and Glenn Sparkman ($5,900) face off. Sparkman in particular is getting pelted on the road to a tune of a 6.21 xFIP, with both-handed bats boasting plus-.400 wOBAs. Carlos Santana ($4,300) presents the best, but Mike Freeman ($2,100) continues to be underpriced when in the lineup.
Stacks
Pirates vs. Vince Velasquez (Phillies)
Josh Bell (1B - $4,200), Bryan Reynolds (OF - $3,400), Adam Frazier (2B - $3,200)
Velasquez has allowed 10 runs over his last 15.2 frames and surrenders a .353 wOBA to lefties, so we'll load up on some relatively cheap options against him. Bell has limped out of the All-Star break, but still carries a .410 wOBA, 156 wRC+ and .343 ISO, while my personal favorite Reynolds goes .395/146/.164. Frazier gives a cheap third lefty hitting atop the order.
Tigers vs. Jacob Waguespack (Blue Jays)
Harold Castro (2B - $2,900), JaCoby Jones (OF - $3,300), Nicholas Castellanos (OF - $3,400)
GPP only, as the Tigers are not an offense you want to lay your hopes on. But they appear set for success here against Waguespack, who has allowed nine runs in 13.2 big league innings. Castro offers tremendous value, owning a team-best .346 wOBA amongst regulars against righties. Jones brings some upside with his .217 ISO, and Castellanos sports a .317 wOBA and .172 ISO. None of these numbers are ideal if facing an ace, but they aren't. A successful Tigers' stack paired with some top bats and a top arm, and you've got a lucky winning formula.
