Exit Velocity and Spin Rate Leaders

Exit Velocity and Spin Rate Leaders

We've recently added all sorts of great batted ball data to RotoWire's stats pages, sortable by a lot of different categories including Barrels, Barrels Percentage, Exit Velocity, Launch Angle and more for hitters, along with the same for pitchers plus Spin-rate added as well. Let's take a look at the leaders and trailers in a few of these categories so far.

For all hitters mentioned here, I'm setting a floor of 75 plate appearances, just enough for Matt Olson to qualify! All stats listed here are as of Tuesday, May 28.

Batter Barrels %

There's a lot of familiar names on this list, guys like Gary Sanchez, Christian Yelich, Joey Gallo and … Jason Castro? Between Mitch Garver and Castro, the Twins have a combined 16 homers from their primary two catchers, and that's reflected with both of them being among the top-20 hitters in barrels percentage.

The other surprising name on the list is Howie Kendrick, who is killing it (again) in a utility role with the Nats. Of all the things that have gone wrong with them this season, getting a healthy Kendrick in the lineup has been a godsend. Too bad he can't pitch in relief.

Those are the leaders in barrel percentage – how about the trailers?
 

There aren't too many shocking developments here; one would expect to see the likes of Billy Hamilton and Dee Gordon show up. Maybe it's noteworthy that Garrett Hampson really earned that demotion, or that Ender Inciarte isn't getting that job back from Austin Riley. Perhaps seeing Brett Gardner sneak in among the trailers qualifies as a minor surprise.

Average Exit Velocity

It's interesting that while the barrels percentage leaders nearly all have high average exit velocities, the exit velocity leaders don't necessarily have high barrel rates. Take the case of Rafael Devers, who has an average exit velocity of 93.7 mph, eighth among qualified hitters in exit velocity but with a well-below 4.5 percent barrel rate. I think the answer lies mostly in his launch angle – at 8.2 degrees, he's well below everyone in this group except for Tommy Pham, who comes in at an extraordinary low 2.5 degrees. He's starting to hit for more power lately, however, with four homers in his last eight games entering Wednesday, so we'll check back on that barrel rate and launch angle later in the season.

Also, it's fun to see Hunter Pence hanging out among the leaders here. I'm not sure if there's much in the way of predictive value here; only that it confirms that his good roto stats haven't been a fluke.

Meanwhile, the exit velocity trailers are very similar to the barrel percentage trailers:

I'll point out two names that concern me. The first is Victor Robles. The highly touted rookie has eight homers, nine stolen bases and has scored 34 runs, but he's also struck out 55 times and has one of the lowest exit velocities in baseball so far. I'm less concerned about the long-term with him than I am for the bulk of this season. The other name is Tyler White – I'm less concerned than embarrassed about this one. Even after lowering his projection during draft season, I've been way off on him, and I think it's only a matter of time before he loses his roster spot with the Astros.

Pitcher Spin Rate

For the pitching stats, I set the bar at 100 Batted Ball Events (BBE) – that should filter out most relievers and short-term call-ups.

The Astros gained notoriety for helping its starters increase their spin rate, so it's no surprise to see Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole sitting at third and fourth respectively among qualified starters, Collin McHugh among the leaders, or to see former Astros Charlie Morton and Joe Musgrove on the list. It's also interesting to see three Detroit Tigers starters – Tyson Ross, Matthew Boyd and Spencer Turnbull. What is pitching coach Rick Anderson teaching there?

Having a high spin rate is hardly in and of itself a guarantee for success, as illustrated by the presence of Chris Stratton, Merrill Kelly and a few other struggling pitchers on this list. Likewise, having a low spin rate doesn't ensure that you'll struggle, as illustrated by the list below. However, in both cases there's a correlation between success and a high spin rate, and struggles with a low spin rate. The exceptions are eye-opening, though, especially with the low spin rates.

That's right, Hyun-Jin Ryu is third lowest among qualified starters in spin rate, despite dominating the free world in his nine starts so far this season. Many of the starters on this list are really struggling, but he's a polar opposite of those on the list. Other pitchers having good seasons despite the low spin rates include Masahiro Tanaka, Chris Paddack and Kyle Hendricks. 

Noah Syndergaard's low spin rate has been discussed in other outlets in conjunction with his earlier struggles, and it looks as if that hasn't changed.

Pitcher Exit Velocity

Inducing weak contact is a skill, and if you look at the names on this list, you can see a lot of pitchers having strong seasons, including some surprises like Martin Perez, Mike Soroka (a surprise only in degree, not that he's doing well) and Mike Minor. Once again, Collin McHugh makes the list. If you get a chance, it might not be a bad idea to throw a minimum bid at him during your next FAAB period if he's still available – the combination of a high spin rate, low exit velocity and high strikeout rate makes me think there's some upside still, and Corbin Martin has struggled in his last three starts. 

There are fewer outliers on this list – most of the pitchers here have been giving up rockets, and you're well served to avoid them – but the ones who are outliers are interesting. Carlos Carrasco is supposed to be one of our aces, as is Aaron Nola, but it's been a trying experience with both of them. I was also surprised to see Madison Bumgarner, Shane Bieber and Patrick Corbin making this list. But how should we react to this information? Try to sell high? Or see if there's another explanation?

Minor League Batted Ball Stats

We now also have minor league batted ball stats for hitters, though we don't have exit velocity or barrel rates for them yet. But there's a lot of cool filters to help you sort through the mounds of data. It's helpful to sort by age and even prospect rank, if you're trying to limit your search to prospects only. That's what I did with this screen shot.

It's not a coincidence that there are a lot of recent call-ups on this list, including Golden God Austin Riley. When will we see Kyle Tucker and/or Yordan Alvarez up with the Astros? Judging by just this one measure, it shouldn't be very long!

I invite you to dig in and explore these features among others on our baseball stats pages, and we'll continue to keep adding more features!