This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Monday's four-game evening slate features a lot of live pitchers, which may blur the line between stack target and GPP play. Those who wish to go a more conventional route should find enough value hitters after rostering at least one ace.
Pitching Overview
Clayton Kershaw ($10,200) has begun giving up homers at an above-average rate for the first time in his career but his control and elite groundball rate should be more than enough against the Mets, who have logged a .297 wOBA and a 25 percent strikeout rate in the last calendar month.
Jacob deGrom ($9,600) will be our pitching option in the other dugout. deGrom got hit hard by the Marlins earlier this month but features an impressive resume in 2019, including a 31 percent strikeout rate and a 75:17 K/BB ratio. The Dodgers have excelled against right-handed pitching this season but deGrom has the ability to put up big points regardless of matchup. This could make him a strong play if prospective owners fade him as a result of the opposing offense.
Lance Lynn ($8,600) has been an afterthought in DFS circles for most of the season but it must be noted that he has put up at least 20 DraftKings points in each of his last three starts, including a whopping 34.2 points in his last start against the Mariners at home. He will face Seattle in a much friendlier pitching environment this time around and will look to once again take advantage of a team that has logged a .299 wOBA and a 26 percent strikeout rate over the last 30 days.
Sonny Gray ($8,100) has shown marked improvement in his strikeout and groundball rates this season, which makes him an interesting GPP play against the Pirates, who have logged just a .305 wOBA against right-handed pitching.
Tommy Milone ($6,500) is an interesting contrarian play based on matchup. The Rangers have logged a bottom-10 wOBA against left-handers to go along with an astronomical 29 percent strikeout rate. Milone isn't all that exciting as a pitcher but has the ability to limit walks and struck out six batters in five innings in his first start of the year against the Rangers in Arlington.
Those really looking to save for offense could give Mitch Keller ($5,900) a shot in his major league debut against the Reds. Keller was able to get strikeouts and limit homers in the minors, and the Reds hold a bottom-10 wOBA against righty hurlers this year.
Key Values
Those not interested in taking a shot on Milone could look to stack offense against him, as he logged a 5.58 xFIP in 49.1 innings at Triple-A Tacoma earlier this year. Hunter Pence ($5,400) has been unstoppable this season, logging a .341 ISO in 123 at-bats.
C.J. Cron ($4,800) needs to be in your player pool whenever he is facing a lefty due to the .500 ISO he has tallied against southpaws in 34 at-bats this year. Gio Gonzalez has managed to keep his ERA down so far in 2019 but an elevated walk rate combined with a .441 slugging percentage against right-handed hitters should make this a difficult matchup.
Michael Pineda has fallen a long way from his days as a hot prospect with the Mariners, having logged a 5.43 ERA with 14 homers allowed in 53 innings this year. Meanwhile, Mike Moustakas ($4,800) has tallied a .305 ISO against right-handed pitchers in 131 at-bats.
I spoke positively about Keller above but he has had trouble keeping his command at times, which could make him worth loading up against in a small ballpark. Eugenio Suarez ($4,700) could be the perfect hitter to anchor a stack due to the .262 ISO he has logged against right-handed pitchers.
Mitch Haniger ($4,300) has shown good power against same-handed hurlers this season, as evidenced by the .266 ISO he has logged in 169 at-bats. This could make for a solid matchup against Lynn, who has allowed a .444 slugging percentage against righty hitters.
Stacks
Brewers against Michael Pineda (Twins)
Mike Moustakas (2B/3B - $4,800) Yasmani Grandal (C - $4,300) Eric Thames (1B/OF - $4,000)
The Brewers aren't the same offensive force on the road as they are in Miller Park but Pineda has had such an issue keeping the ball in the yard that it is worth lining up the power hitters to see if they can rack up the points.
Rangers against Tommy Milone (Mariners)
Hunter Pence (OF - $5,400) Asdrubal Cabrera (3B - $3,600) Logan Forsythe (1B/SS - $4,400)
Milone's checkered history on the mound makes him someone who needs to be considered as a stack target. The lack of quality right-handed bats keeps Milone alive as a GPP play but stacking against him will likely be the most common strategy.
