Mound Musings: Reviewing Preseason Targets

Every spring, I provide readers with a list of pitchers I expect to provide value throughout the upcoming season. There is a brief recap of each team's potential rotation, followed by a, "The guy to own" recommendation. In most cases, this won't be the recognized ace of the staff as he will usually be full price when his name comes up – rather this suggestion is all about value. We're looking for that guy who will be underrated by many fantasy team owners; buyable or available at a discount. That is the overriding theme of this column. And, we'll continue to look for arms that can help you win; some today and some perhaps a few weeks or months down the road!

That said, let's review my list of recommended, by team, 2019 draft day targets:

American League

Alex Cobb – Orioles (0-2, 1.86 WHIP, 10.95 ERA): I wasn't too excited about any of the starting pitchers on this staff, but Cobb is occasionally competent. Unfortunately, he suffered a groin strain in spring training, putting him behind as the season opened. He pitched poorly upon his return, before going on the injured list with a back strain.

Chris Sale – Red Sox (0-5, 1.40 WHIP, 6.30 ERA): Certainly a candidate for "most disappointing start to the season." With a career worst month, Sale has been off his game since Opening Day. It's actually pretty amazing that he consistently remains in command of his pitches given his motion. He's coming back. Buy low if possible.

James Paxton – Yankees (3-2, 1.15 WHIP, 3.38 ERA): A bit like Sale, Paxton has a pitching motion that can make it difficult to always maintain his release point. He will occasionally get out of synch, but it happens less frequently these days, and when everything is working, he's one of the most dominant pitchers in the game.

Tyler Glasnow – Rays (5-0, 0.94 WHIP, 1.75 ERA): The Rays just keep churning out top-shelf starting pitchers, so always monitor young arms in their system. Glasnow has long shown the stuff to be a very successful MLB pitcher, and pretty much everyone was convinced of that other than him. He has seen the light. Discount days are now over.

Ryan Borucki – Blue Jays (0-0, 0.00 WHIP, 0.00 ERA): Not a highly hyped prospect, Borucki came up in the second half last season, and really caught my eye with a great mound presence and a solid repertoire including a masterful change. Unfortunately, an elbow injury (no surgery) has sidelined him. Look for him in late May or early June.

Carlos Rodon – White Sox (3-2, 1.44 WHIP, 5.19 ERA): Rodon has always had great stuff, but his command, as with many young lefties, can desert him at times. Add in a long layoff following shoulder surgery, and predicting when it will all come together long term is difficult. He has flashed it a few times, and I'm confident it will be fairly soon.

Trevor Bauer – Indians (4-1, 1.05 WHIP, 2.45 ERA): You could clearly see the high ceiling of Bauer in his first few professional seasons, but success was frustratingly on and off, so I was reluctant to recommend him. No longer. Last season everything clicked, and he's now one of the most exciting pitchers going. A Cy Young is in his future.  

Jordan Zimmermann – Tigers (0-4, 1.35 WHIP, 5.93 ERA): I missed big on this one. He's fairly competent when healthy, but that never seems to be his status. Some would say I should have suggested Matthew Boyd (I thought about it), but in hindsight, I should've said to wait for the true gems, Matt Manning and Casey Mize.

Brad Keller – Royals (2-3, 1.31 WHIP, 4.07 ERA): I could see why the Royals made him a Rule 5 pick last season. He doesn't have ace stuff, but when he spots all of his pitches – something he can do when on his game – he can be effective. He's enduring a rough stretch right now, but I think he'll adjust. I'm recommending some patience.

Jose Berrios – Twins (4-1, 0.97 WHIP, 2.97 ERA): Some of the best value can be found in genuine prospects who disappoint in their initial exposure to the major leagues. Just be certain they are genuine. Such is Berrios. It took him awhile to realize his potential, but he's on track now, and he could get even better.

Forrest Whitley – Astros (0-0, 0.00 WHIP, 0.00 ERA): Most Astros' starting pitchers figured to be full price, so I looked down the line. Whitley is adjusting to the Triple-A level, and a rough start has darkened his peripherals, but don't get off the bandwagon. He's is still a blue-chip prospect and could see Houston's rotation later this summer.

Matt Harvey – Angels (1-2, 1.39 WHIP, 6.54 ERA): I warned readers that snagging Harvey would require a leap of faith. I own him in every league, and his early 2019 performance has been mixed. He's had a couple very encouraging starts and a couple disasters, but I still see the old Harvey at times. I remain stubbornly patient.

Jesus Luzardo – A's (0-0, 0.00 WHIP, 0.00 ERA): Oakland's best options (Luzardo and Sean Manaea) are both hurt, so it's a waiting game as they could both join the A's later this year. I will mention one pitcher who has taken a step forward. Frankie Montas has been more consistent with his secondary pitches and could be useful in deeper leagues.

Yusei Kikuchi – Mariners (1-1, 1.28 WHIP, 4.54 ERA): The Mariners are easing him into the routine workload here in North America, and his early season results have been mixed. That said, like many pitchers coming here from Japan, Kikuchi has displayed an advanced feel for mixing up his pitches and pitch locations. Better days to come.

Mike Minor – Rangers (3-2, 0.91 WHIP, 2.88 ERA): His first start of 2019 was ugly or his numbers would look even better. Minor is thriving in the Rangers' rotation, and although I wouldn't count on many outings like his last start (13 strikeouts and one run over seven innings) I believe he can continue to be a steady fantasy contributor.

National League

Kevin Gausman – Braves (1-2, 1.07 WHIP, 4.80 ERA): He suffered minor shoulder woes that cost him most of spring training. He came out blazing in his first start and added another gem, but he's been inconsistent so far. Readers are well aware of my belief in him and have seen what he can do at his best. I just hope he's 100 percent healthy.

Jose Urena – Marlins (1-4, 1.54 WHIP, 5.08 ERA): I really thought Urena was poised to take a step forward in 2019, and he still could. His first three starts were awful (2.12 WHIP and 9.22 ERA), but the last three have been considerably better. The Marlins aren't a very good team, but he might be a decent buy low candidate.

Noah Syndergaard – Mets (1-3, 1.47 WHIP, 6.35 ERA): I have a tough time fully explaining his struggles. He still has some of the best stuff in baseball, but his location isn't always as sharp as you would expect, especially with runners on base. He has trouble controlling the running game, but he needs to forget it and just do his thing.

Aaron Nola – Phillies (2-0, 1.60 WHIP, 5.06 ERA): At least part of his slow start can be attributed to simple bad luck (his BABIP is nearly 100 points higher than last year), but inconsistency in locating his pitches is also a factor. Luckily, his stuff is good enough to get him out of many jams or his ERA could be worse. Expect that BABIP to normalize.

Patrick Corbin – Nationals (2-1, 1.06 WHIP, 3.58 ERA): He has produced fairly solid peripherals and is among the leaders in strikeouts, but I'm still disappointed. Corbin's numbers would be considerably better if not for one rough outing – really one bad inning. I know, I'm very greedy, but I believe the best is yet to come.

Cole Hamels – Cubs (3-0, 1.09 WHIP, 3.19 ERA): I really appreciate pitchers making the transition from younger big arms to seasoned wily veterans. I think Hamels fits here. He's not as dominant as he once was but he is shrewd, and in many ways he could be more difficult for hitters to handle now than he ever was. He's far from done.

Alex Wood – Reds (0-0, 0.00 WHIP, 0.00 ERA): I think if you threw the names of 100 random pitchers in a hat and drew out 10, four of them would be on the injured list. Such is the case with Wood. He experienced back stiffness in spring training, was slowly progressing and had a setback last week. Best case for a return is probably June now.

Corbin Burnes – Brewers (0-2, 2.15 WHIP, 10.70 ERA): Wow. That was brutal. It was like watching batting practice. A lot of hard hit balls, including 11 home runs in less than 18 innings, is certainly enough for a ticket to Triple-A. All is not lost. Burnes is still a quality young arm and will hopefully get his confidence back before returning.

Jameson Taillon – Pirates (2-3, 1.11 WHIP, 4.26 ERA): A favorite who spent time at the top of my kids to watch list before arriving in Pittsburgh. Injuries and illness have been frustrating, but they seem to have strengthened his resolve. I love his breaking ball and I think he's right on the precipice of a step up to the top tier of starting pitchers.

Miles Mikolas – Cardinals (3-2. 1.25 WHIP, 4.73 ERA): Maybe Mikolas just doesn't like cool weather? Last April he was home run prone and he didn't consistently locate his pitches within the strike zone. It's been déjà vu all over again this year. He's not the type of pitcher who can miss his spots, so hopefully the command will come around in May.

Luke Weaver – Diamondbacks (2-1, 1.24 WHIP, 3.73 ERA): Even in the darkest days last year, I steadfastly maintained that Weaver would again be a quality starting pitcher. The move to Arizona seems to have helped immensely, and I actually believe we could see him get even better as the season progresses. If you don't own him, I'd make a run at him.

German Marquez – Rockies (3-2, 1.02 WHIP, 2.93 ERA): I don't recall ever strongly recommending a Rockies starting pitcher, but Marquez is receiving that endorsement. I'm reasonably sure he could still get thumped occasionally, but that happens to any pitcher, in any park these days. He is a special talent in my mind.

Walker Buehler – Dodgers (3-0, 1.19 WHIP, 5.22 ERA): Let me say, I am a Buehler believer. Three rocky starts to begin the season, so I made sure to check out his next outing to see what might be wrong. He was electric. Dominant. His next two outings were mediocre, so I need to watch again. For the record, I remain a Buehler believer.

Chris Paddack – Padres (2-1, 0.70 WHIP, 1.91 ERA): I was anticipating solid innings from Paddack in his debut season, but he has been beyond impressive. Hitters are batting .126 over his first seven starts, and he has issued four walks in 33 innings. He's not likely to keep up that pace but he looks like the genuine deal, and then some.

Madison Bumgarner – Giants (1-4, 1.10 WHIP, 3.92 ERA): Remember playing Wiffle Ball? You cruise throwing unhittable breaking pitches, then you make one mistake and the ball lands in the neighbor's back yard. That's Mad Bum 2019. The Giants aren't very good, but it's possible he'll change uniforms this summer. If that happens, watch out.

Endgame Odyssey:

Closing relies so much on both ability and the mental aspects of the game. In Texas, Jose Leclerc has been temporarily removed from ninth-inning duties, as his rough start to 2019 has become chronic. I like him a lot. I don't think his ability has waned, but the stress could be playing on his mind. I do expect him back closing relatively soon, but in the interim, Shawn Kelley, and perhaps Chris Martin, should get the save chances. Minnesota's Blake Parker has enjoyed some success, effectively collecting the majority of the saves chances, but I'm not convinced he is the final answer. I still want southpaw Taylor Rogers as a handcuff for him. Josh Hader is still grabbing saves in Milwaukee, but his heavy workload is already having a negative impact. The Brewers have got to be exploring other options, either Jeremy Jeffress or someone outside the organization. With Arodys Vizcaino out for the year, and A.J. Minter doing his best to give the job away, it appears Luke Jackson is this week's closer in Atlanta. They probably haven't given up on Minter yet, but they may be looking outside too if he doesn't step up soon. The Angels' Cody Allen is on the shelf now, and auditions continue for the ninth inning gig. Right now Hansel Robles may have the edge with Ty Buttrey still in the picture. The Phillies are reportedly considering a move to the bullpen for Nick Pivetta. He has an exceptional, albeit limited, repertoire and would be a far superior option to close games compared to who they currently have should this transpire.