MLB Barometer: Risers & Fallers

Let's kick off this week's Barometer with another list of things to check on around the league  to determine whether it's officially "Still Early":

1. The Tigers are winning the AL Central

2. The Mariners are winning the AL West

That's probably all we need for now.

That doesn't mean we need to abandon all stats-based analysis, however. A few categories of stats do stand out as particularly useful early on and will be the focus behind this week's set of players, and probably the next few weeks as well. 

Increased velocity is the most obvious example – it only takes one pitch thrown at 100 mph to know that a pitcher can hit triple digits. It may take a few more pitches to see how repeatable that velocity is and where that pitcher regularly hits, but if we're simply talking about peak velocity, it's safe to say after just one pitch that he does in fact possess the ability to throw at that speed.

Decreased velocity is also fairly easy to pick up on early in the season, as it combines the two factors that make a stat become reliable quickly. First, it's easy to get a lot of reps in a short  time. A pitcher could throw 50 or 60 fastballs in a game (or 84 if he's Freddy Peralta in his most recent start) but is unlikely to face much more than 30 batters. Second, it's entirely under the pitcher's control, as nothing a batter or fielder does will affect the speed of the pitch.

Stats that meet one of those two conditions are also already interesting at this point of the season. Plate discipline stats meet the first, as their denominator is pitches rather than plate appearances. Strikeout rates and most Statcast stats meet the second criteria. They're influenced by the other person in the batter-pitcher battle, but the fielders play no part. It might not be all that useful to know whether a player is hitting .150 or .450, as he could be crushing the ball right at fielders or hitting weak grounders through the hole. If his Statcast profile shows that he's consistently making good contact, though, we should already be intrigued, regardless of where his batted balls are ending up.

This week's players are noteworthy either due to changes in their role or due to performance in those stats that become relevant early in the season. A quick reminder of how this list is supposed to be used: it's not an add/drop list, so don't go dropping Chris Sale for Trent Thornton. It's instead a list of players whose values have risen or fallen notably in recent weeks. While you shouldn't drop Sale after seeing him here, you should definitely at least listen if another owner offers to buy him at his draft-day price.

RISERS

Enrique Hernandez, 2B/SS/OF, Dodgers: I liked Hernandez during draft season as a utility or bench player due to his positional flexibility and mild breakout last season, and wound up with him on more teams than any other hitter. His .256 batting average (the product of a big drop in strikeout rate from 23.4 to 16.9 percent) and 21 homers in 462 plate appearances in 2018 suggested the potential to be more than just an end-of-roster player if only the Dodgers would get him into more games. Last year's home-run total prorates to 25 with 550 plate appearances (still less than a true starting workload), which would have been good for second among second basemen. The Dodgers said he'd have a starting role at second this season, and that's been true, as he's started eight of 10 games, leading off against every lefty. He's rewarded the team, hitting .367 with three homes, and even with a healthy amount of regression he'll still be a good bet to easily outperform his draft price.

Trent Thornton, SP, Blue Jays: Thornton emerged out of relative obscurity (he was the return for reserve infielder Aledmys Diaz in November) to claim a spot in the Blue Jays' rotation when Ryan Borucki and Clay Buchholz went to the injured list with elbow problems. Neither pitcher is supposed to miss too much more time, but it would be a surprise to see Thornton lose his spot based on what he's shown. Granted, his starts have come against two poor lineups (the Tigers and Indians), but his 1.69 ERA has been well-supported by by an excellent 39.5 percent strikeout rate and a 5.3 percent walk rate. In the minor leagues, Thornton wasn't nearly this much of a strikeout pitcher, recording a respectable-though-far-from-elite 23.6 percent strikeout rate, but he's always avoided free passes, walking 6.0 percent of batters. Scouts do like his stuff, however, as his high-spin curveball and slider project as potential plus offerings. The sample size is still too small to drop an established pitcher for him in shallower leagues, but he's definitely worth a look in deeper formats.

Christian Walker, 1B, Diamondbacks: Walker is a 28-year-old first baseman who hit .170 and struck out 40.4 percent of the time in his 99 major-league plate appearances prior to this season. He's also crushing the ball and is now the Diamondbacks' starting first baseman for at least six weeks due to Jake Lamb's quad strain. Walker ranks 11th in average exit velocity and seventh in barrels per plate appearance, according to Statcast. He's also striking out just 22.6 percent of the time. The last two years at the Triple-A level, Walker managed a .305/.372/.586 line with a similarly respectable 20.0 percent strikeout rate, so he's worth a shot in deeper leagues now that he finally has a regular role.

Yandy Diaz, 1B, Rays: Long seen as the player most in need of a launch-angle increase, Diaz may be on the verge of a breakout after an offseason trade to the data-savvy Rays. After posting flyball rates of 18.9 percent and 23.3 percent in two shorts stints with Cleveland, he's up to a roughly league-average 33.3 percent this season, and he's already hit three homers, quadrupling his career total. He's still making tons of contact, striking out just 7.9 percent of the time. Starting all but one game and leading off against lefties, he's a very interesting piece who could blow past his homer projections and become an all-around threat with the bat.

Hector Neris, RP, Phillies: Neris claimed the Phillies' first save of the year Sunday against the Twins, a welcome reminder that he's as much in the conversation for saves in Philadelphia and Seranthony Dominguez and David Robertson. He suffers from inconsistency, pitching poorly enough last season to be sent to the minors in mid-July. When he's pitching well, however, he's every bit as good as Dominguez and Robertson, as his 0.05 FIP and 50.7 percent strikeout rate from Aug. 15 onward last season demonstrate. Sunday's save could cause Neris' stock to jump higher than it should, if fantasy owners incorrectly assume he's won the closer job. In reality, the Phillies probably don't and won't have a closer job in the traditional sense, but Neris should be valued similarly to his more highly rated teammates after coming hundreds of picks cheaper during draft season.

Matthew Boyd, SP, Tigers: Max Scherzer leads the league in strikeouts. Jacob deGrom ranks second. Right behind that pair, with 23 strikeouts and a 47.9 percent strikeout rate, is Boyd. It's a remarkable jump for a pitcher whose thoroughly average 22.4 percent strikeout rate last season was a career high. It would be a shock if his strikeout ability were truly suddenly as good as deGrom's or Scherzer's, but there are reasons to believe he's legitimately a better pitcher than he was in previous seasons. He's mostly cut out an ineffective changeup, dropping its usage from 7.7 percent to 1.6 percent and replacing it with increased usage of a very good slider, which he's thrown 36.6 percent of the time. He's throwing more pitches out of the zone, which batters are swinging at more frequently and making contact with less frequently. It would be a surprise to see him anywhere near the top of the strikeout leaderboard by the end of the season, but it does seem likely that he's on his way to a career-high strikeout rate and improved numbers across the board.

FALLERS

Chris Sale, SP, Red Sox: It takes a lot to headline this section two weeks in a row, but reducing your fastball velocity by nearly three ticks in your second start of the season after throwing worryingly slowly your first time out is a surefire way to do it. Sale's fastball averaged just 89.9 mph last Tuesday against Oakland, his lowest velocity of any game in his major-league career. He allowed just one run, but more significantly, he struck out a single batter and generated six swinging strikes on the day. He claims to not be injured, but this sort of drastic velocity drop is exactly what it looks like when a pitcher is injured, and his shoulder problems late last season certainly hint in that direction. If he truly isn't injured and is simply throwing more slowly to preserve his arm early in the season, it's not clear that this current version is all that interesting for fantasy players due to his 11.9 percent strikeout rate.

Yu Darvish, SP, Cubs: Something is clearly not right with Yu Darvish. Through his first two starts of the season, he has an 8.10 ERA, striking out just 16.7 percent of batters while walking a whopping 30.6 percent. His fastball velocity is down by more than a tick, at 92.7 mph after coming in at 94.0 mph last season. He reportedly showed up to camp healthy after arm problems limited him to eight starts last season. He did deal with a blister late in spring training, which could be part of the problem, though he said he was good to go prior to his first start of the year. Whatever the reason, it certainly doesn't look like Darvish is in for the bounceback campaign many hoped for during draft season.

Aaron Nola, SP, Phillies: The Phillies are off to a hot start despite their ace posting a 7.00 ERA and lasting nine total innings in his first two starts. His 25.6 percent strikeout rate is in line with his career numbers, and his velocity hasn't dropped, but the control artist has walked 18.0 percent of batters this season. The primary problem appears to be that he's consistently falling behind the count, as his first-strike percentage has dropped from a strong 69.4 percent last season to a poor 48.7 percent, sixth-highest among qualified starters. Batters have stopped chasing his pitches outside the zone, likely because they're frequently ahead in the count. The season is young enough that one good start could turn those numbers around, but without elite swing-and-miss stuff, Nola will have to get his control back if he's to live up to his expensive draft price.

Tyler White, 1B, Astros: White seemed like a potentially interesting late-round first baseman due to his small-sample success at the plate last season and his presumed regular role in the excellent Astros lineup. He's done nothing wrong when he's played this season, but he clearly doesn't have the role he seemed to be in line for, starting just four of the team's first 10 games. The Astros like to give their regulars a rest by rotating them through the designated hitter spot, but that hasn't been the only issue, as Tony Kemp has spent more time there than White has. Owners in deep leagues might want to ride this out in case the Astros decide to turn to White to help kickstart a struggling offense, but there's certainly reason to start looking at options.

Brandon Nimmo, OF, Mets: Nimmo has never had a high batting average, but he's also never had a terrible strikeout rate. This season, he's last among qualified hitters with a 47.2 percent strikeout rate, leading to an awful .103 batting average. He's swinging at more pitches outside the zone (27.0 percent, up from 19.7 percent last season) and making contact at a much lower rate (down from 75.5 percent last season to 53.5 percent this year). The Mets have an improved offense this season, but Nimmo is at risk of moving down the lineup or moving into a part-time role if he can't turn things around.