Regan's Rumblings: 30 Players Who Could Outperform Expectations

It's been a fascinating offseason with the well-publicized rule changes designed to speed up the game, the myriad contract extensions leaving the 2019-20 free-agent pool much shallower, and free agents such as Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel remaining unsigned as we approach Opening Day. With rosters and depth charts pretty much set, let's look around the league at one player per team who could net more playing time (and fantasy value) than expected.

Arizona – Jake Lamb (1B/3B)

Lamb isn't going to help much in the BA department, but prior to an ugly, injury-ridden 2018, Lamb hit 59 home runs in 2016-2017. He's worthless against lefties, but Lamb is set to man first base against right-handers, so he should soon qualify there and at third base. Wilmer Flores should also see time at first, but as long as Lamb is healthy, he should see enough PAs to make another run at 30 home runs.

Atlanta – Bryse Wilson (SP)

Wilson gets a bit lost among the Braves' plethora of young starters, but he's going to start the second game of the season. Wilson struggles at the Triple-A and MLB levels last year and is barely 21, but the upside is significant. He averaged 95 mph with his fastball last year, and the talent is certainly there to post a 9+ K/9.

Baltimore – Rio Ruiz (3B)

Ruiz hasn't flashed corner infielder-type power, but the 24-year-old could win the third base job. He's hitting .269/.356/.538 this spring and could be a cheap source of 20 home runs, though the batting average could be limited to the .250-.260 range.

Boston – Heath Hembree (RP)

Matt Barnes and Ryan Brasier top the closer depth chart, but this still looks like an open competition. Hembree looks to be as talented as any reliever on the roster, as he's recorded back-to-back seasons of a 10-plus K/9 while sitting in the 94-96 mph range with his fastball. As long as he can keep the walks to a minimum, Hembree could find himself in the mix for saves. Hembree's spring has gotten off to a slow start, but no one has really separated themselves in this competition.

Chicago Cubs – Nico Hoerner (SS)

He won't be in the big leagues any time soon, but the timeline for last year's No. 24 overall pick looks to be accelerating. All Hoerner has done this spring is hit .533/.611/1.200 in 18 PA with zero strikeouts. Addison Russell (suspension) doesn't look to be in the team's long-term plans, so once Hoerner is ready, he could be the starting SS with Javier Baez at second. Oh, and Hoerner also hit .337/.362/.506 in the Arizona Fall League. Hoerner may already be a top-50 overall prospect.

Chicago White Sox – Reynaldo Lopez (SP)

His control remains a bit shaky, but Lopez had a 1.38 ERA over his final seven starts last year and has as much upside as anyone in the White Sox rotation. We have him as the No. 74 overall starting pitcher, but I can see him finishing in the top 40-50. Lopez has been working hard on his slider this spring, and if he can improve the command of that offering, pairing a plus slider with a 95-mph fastball should allow him to easily eclipse his 7.1 career K/9.

Cincinnati – Scott Schebler (OF)

Schebler goes a bit unnoticed with higher profile teammates such as Yasiel Puig also roaming the outfield, but as he battles for playing time this spring, Schebler is making his case by hitting .364/.533/.636. The though was that Schebler was merely keeping CF warm for Nick Senzel's mid-April MLB debut, but with Scooter Gennett now set to miss 2-3 months with a groin injury, Senzel could slide in at second once he's up. Remember, Schebler is just one year removed from hitting 30 home runs.

Cleveland – Brad Miller (UT)

Miller could have been this year's Max Muncy or last year's Chris Taylor with the Dodgers, but they simply had no space for him on the roster. He lands in Cleveland after hitting .385/.429/.615 with the Dodgers, and he could see time right away at second base with Jason Kipnis (calf) opening on the IL. If he hits right away, he could even see regular playing time there once Kipnis returns, with the latter shifting to the outfield on occasion.

Colorado – Garrett Hampson (SS/2B)

It seems Ryan McMahon is going to win the second base job, with perhaps Hampson seeing time there against lefties and perhaps at multiple positions as a super-utility guy. One thing to watch though is whether the Rockies consider converting Hampson to the outfield. The current plan is that Ian Desmond will be the everyday center fielder, but Desmond, while he's having a great spring (.366/.490/.659), has been a huge disappointment in his first two seasons in Colorado. Perhaps the Rockies consider having Hampson open in Triple-A as an outfielder before bringing him up a couple weeks later.

Detroit – Daz Cameron (OF)

Cameron ranks as a nice stash in deeper redraft leagues, and certainly keeper leagues. The Detroit outfield is comprised of Nicholas Castellanos (until he's traded) and a bunch of guys who are fourth/fifth outfield types. Cameron has hit .357/.438/.786 this spring after finishing 2018 in Triple-A. He struggled a bit there, but the 22-year-old is close to being big league ready. Honorable mention here to Spencer Turnbull, who has had a great spring (1.80 ERA and 15:2 K:BB in 15 innings) and has made the roster.

Houston – Tony Kemp (OF)

Out of options, Kemp likely will make the team as a reserve. He's hitting .333/.458/.513 with four steals and a 7:8 K:BB this spring, so look hard enough and you can possibly see Kemp getting 400-plus PA at multiple positions. He could see time at DH with Tyler White hitting just .205/.300/.341 this spring, in right field (Josh Reddick is dealing with a sore back), and in left where Michael Brantley's health is seemingly always in question. He could be a 10 HR/20-plus SB guy with regular playing time.

Kansas City – Hunter Dozier (3B)

I've never been much of a Dozier guy due to his lofty strikeout rates and low walk rates, but he's having a nice spring at .277/.404/.638 with four home runs and a reasonable 0.62 BB/K. He's yet to show much power with a .180 ISO in 409 big league PA, but Dozier is a 2013 first-round pick (I'm a sucker for those guys), so perhaps his 6-foot-4 frame grows into some power in this, his age-27 season.

L.A. Angels – Zack Cozart (SS)

Last year's bum and this year's Comeback Player of the Year? Not sure I'm ready to go that far, but it's possible. The poster child for timing his free agency perfectly, Cozart regressed from 2017's .933 OPS to post a .219/.296/.362 slash in his first year with the Angels. Some of the BA regression could possibly be explained by his .244 BABIP, as Cozart's hard hit rate last year was actually higher than it was in 2017. His HR/FB rate however dropped from 15.6 to 6.7 percent, and while he may not return to that 15-plus percent, getting that back in the 10 percent range could allow Cozart to push for 20 home runs.

L.A. Dodgers – Enrique Hernandez (2B)

Hernandez was named the team's starting second baseman after hitting .256/.336/.470 last year with 21 homers in 462 PA. He also hit a solid .278/.350/.500 this spring and could find himself with 500-plus PA for the first time in his career. If you watched the Dodgers' boxscores at all last year, you know other guys will see time at second as well (Chris Taylor, Max Muncy, perhaps even Austin Barnes), but Hernandez will play. He'll likely hit near the bottom of the order most days.

Miami – Caleb Smith (SP)

A lot of relative no-names to choose from, but I'll go with the lefty Smith. He will open in the rotation, and over parts of two seasons, Smith has 106 strikeouts in 96 innings. He also has a 4.87 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, but he can take a step forward. This spring, Smith has a 4.05 ERA in 13.1 innings, but that also comes with a 19:1 K:BB. Beware his flyball tendencies in road starts, but he could be a nice fit in Marlins Park.

Milwaukee – Orlando Arcia (SS)

I also liked Alex Claudio here, but that was a bit too obvious. Can we call Arcia a post-post hype sleeper? Still just 24, Arcia is coming off his worse season in 2018, having hit just .236/.268/.407 with three homers and seven stolen bases. The lack of production resulted in a Triple-A stint where he hit .341/.417/.494. Arcia did hit .310 in his last 14 games followed by a .959 OPS in 10 playoff games, so perhaps that's something to build on.

Minnesota – Willians Astudillo (C/3B)

There aren't too many MLB players with a 31 BMI, but that's where the 5-9 Astudillo clocks in. He's made the Twins roster and should see time at catcher, third base and DH. With Jason Castro hitting .276/.354/.655 through his first 33 spring PA, he'll be the starting catcher, but there's a large element of bust potential with Castro. Meanwhile, Astudillo hit .355/.371/.516 in 97 PA for the Twins last year and was at .306/.320/.469 in his first 50 spring PA. He also entered the final wee of spring with ZERO walks or strikeouts before drawing an unexpected walk. In addition to his "girth," Astudillo is a unique hitter, rarely walking or striking out. In fact, his highest strikeout rate at any level came last year in Triple-A, a mere 4.6 percent.  He should have no trouble finding 300-plus PA, making him a nice No. 2 catcher in many formats.

N.Y. Mets – Keon Broxton (OF)

Broxton has yet to be named to the Opening Day roster, though I expect him to make the club as a backup outfielder. Through 47 spring PA, Broxton was hitting .297/.447/.378. The lack of home runs is surprising, but not alarming. I'm more encouraged by his 0.75 BB/K, which is more than double his 0.30 career mark. Broxton was a 20/20 guy just two years ago, so he could have some value once injuries hit. I do expect Broxton to find his way to 300-plus PA.

N.Y. Yankees – Greg Bird (1B)

He'll probably get hurt before this is published, but yes, I like Bird yet again. Everyone is in love with the whopping 161 PA that Luke Voit had last year, and it's true that Voit is mashing again this spring, but it wouldn't be a shocker to see the 28-year-old take a step back in 2019. He's unlikely to have another .365 BABIP, and the 26.7 K% was a bit elevated. Bird, meanwhile, hit .317/.481/.610 through his first 53 PA, including a nice 12:10 K:BB and three home runs. Consistency and health have eluded him in parts of three seasons, but in 576 overall big league at-bats, Bird has 31 home runs. Both he and Voit likely make the Opening Day roster with Aaron Hicks (back) set to miss the first week or so of the season, but after that it's anyone's guess as to Bird's role. I just believe in the bat.

Oakland – Frankie Montas (SP)

I've been a fan of Montas since his days in the Dodgers organization and watching him this spring has made me an even bigger fan. Montas through 16 innings has allowed just one run with a 16:5 K:BB. He's shown a change and sinker more than I remembered seeing from him, and combined with a mid-90s fastball, that's a potentially devastating combination. Improved secondary stuff, a strong defense, and a pitcher's park at home have me wondering what he can do if he can stay healthy enough to make 30 starts.

Philadelphia – Scott Kingery (2B)

I'm embarrassed to admit what sort of offers I turned down for Kingery in a dynasty league last year after he hit .411/.441/.786 in the spring. Kingery followed that up with an awful .226/.267/.338 line in the big leagues and now he has no defined position after playing most of his games at short last year. Kingery has hit a reasonable .264/.316/.472 this spring, and with Maikel Franco hitting just .240/.269/.360, a strong finish this week could net Kingery the starting third base gig in a loaded lineup.

Pittsburgh – Joe Musgrove (SP)

A trendy sleeper pick in the industry, I too am all in on Musgrove this year. There was a reason he was the key player in the Gerrit Cole deal, and I think this is a guy who can have a real breakout. Musgrove put up a 4.06 ERA in 19 starts last year before an abdominal injury ended his season. His 1.8 BB/9 was elite, though his 7.8 K/9 was not. The strikeouts should improve now that he's healthy, and as currently our No. 62 starting pitcher, there's a fair amount of profit potential to be had.

San Diego – Eric Lauer (SP)

Guys like Matt Strahm and Chris Paddack are seeing their values skyrocket this spring, but don't forget about the team's Opening Day starter, Lauer. The southpaw isn't a hard thrower, but he hasn't allowed a run this spring (10 IP) and in his last five starts last year, Lauer had a 1.07 ERA. The Padres hope he can improve upon his 3.7 BB/9, which I think he can.

Seattle – Matt Festa (RP)

It does worry me that Festa's fastball averaged just 92.8 mph in a September trial last year with the Mariners, but he reportedly was more in the 94-96 range in the past, so perhaps there was just fatigue there. Buried on the closer depth chart, Festa still bears watching, as he recorded 20 saves for Double-A Arkansas last year with a 12.3 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9. With Edwin Diaz now in New York, Festa could rise up the depth chart quickly, as there really aren't any proven options ahead of him.

San Francisco – Michael Reed (OF)

Mac Williamson (.596 OPS) could be playing himself out of the LF job, leading Reed to be a potential fallback candidate. The 26-year-old has a .527 OPS in parts of three big league trials (37 PA), but he did hit .363/.459/.539 last year in Triple-A and he's swiped as many as 33 bases in a season. Don't expect much, but in NL-only leagues, he could get enough playing time to have some value as a 5th outfielder.

St. Louis – John Brebbia (RP)

Jordan Hicks will open as the team's closer, but Hicks looks to me like a 2010's version of Carlos Marmol. Great stuff, but also a 5.2 BB/9 last year and seven walks so far this spring in six innings. Andrew Miller seemingly would be next in line, but Miller projects to be the team's only reliable left-handed option, so perhaps he would remain in a setup role. That would leave Brebbia as an option along with Alex Reyes. Brebbia had a solid 60:16 K:BB in 50.2 innings last year.

Tampa Bay – Diego Castillo (RP/SP)

Castillo could act as an opener again this year, but ultimately, I see him closing games rather than opening them. Castillo posted a 3.18 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 56.2 innings with a 10.3 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 while averaging a blistering 97.7 mph with his fastball. Jose Alvarado is set to close, but he's the team's lone proven lefty reliever, so perhaps the Rays make a change at some point.

Texas – Drew Smyly (SP)

The Rangers have a quintet of lottery tickets in their rotation, but here I'll focus on Smyly. He's had mixed reviews this spring and his next MLB pitch will be his first since 2016, but in very deep leagues, I'll have a couple shares. For his career, Smyly has posted a 3.74 ERA in 570.1 innings (all in the AL) with strong ratios – 8.7 K/9, 2.5 BB/9. His 44.5 career FB% is a bit high, which won't help him at home, but he's still just 29, and if healthy, perhaps there's something left in the tank.

Toronto – Billy McKinney (OF)

It's still unclear as to how the outfield at-bats will be divided in Toronto, but McKinney should see plenty of time at the corners. Hitting second, McKinney was 2-for-3 on Monday to raise his slash line to a solid .271/.397/.479. McKinney has always shown well above average plate discipline in the minors, but with below average power and batting average. McKinney though did show improved power last season with a combined 22 home runs in 461 PA, including six in 132 PA at the big-league level. He's probably a platoon guy at best this year, but McKinney could have some deeper league value.

Washington – Luis Garcia (SS)

Carter Kieboom may make it to the big leagues before Garcia, but don't completely rule out Garcia pulling a Juan Soto this year. Recall that in 2018, Soto progressed from Low-A to the big leagues at the age of 19. Garcia turns 19 in May, and he is already move advanced than Soto was at this point last year, having made it to High-A last year at age 18, where he hit .299/.338/.412. Garcia hit an impressive .316/.381/.316 this spring, which could be enough for him to open 2019 in Double-A. A mid-2019 debut isn't out of the question.