This article is part of our Collette Calls series.
In all, Bundy still has fewer than 300 innings at the big league level and has pitched as a different pitcher in each of the past two seasons. The addition of the slider gives him a full arsenal to attack opposing lineups and the ability to reduce his exposure to splits issues that have held him back.He went in the 14th round in an NFBC Draft Champions League. His ADP is 273 as the 70th starting pitcher off the board. I feel strongly that the pieces are there for him to finish in the top 50 for starting pitchers when the 2018 season is all said and done. He may get hurt with wins due to a projected poor season in Baltimore and the knock the pen recently took with Zach Britton's injury, but the stuff is there for him to outperform his projections and ADP and someone you should target in the back half of the draft.
Bundy's season, much like the Orioles' season, has been disastrous. He is 8-15 on the season with a 5.37 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and leads the
In all, Bundy still has fewer than 300 innings at the big league level and has pitched as a different pitcher in each of the past two seasons. The addition of the slider gives him a full arsenal to attack opposing lineups and the ability to reduce his exposure to splits issues that have held him back.He went in the 14th round in an NFBC Draft Champions League. His ADP is 273 as the 70th starting pitcher off the board. I feel strongly that the pieces are there for him to finish in the top 50 for starting pitchers when the 2018 season is all said and done. He may get hurt with wins due to a projected poor season in Baltimore and the knock the pen recently took with Zach Britton's injury, but the stuff is there for him to outperform his projections and ADP and someone you should target in the back half of the draft.
Bundy's season, much like the Orioles' season, has been disastrous. He is 8-15 on the season with a 5.37 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and leads the league with 38 home runs permitted.
The theme of many of my pieces the next few months will be looking back at what went wrong and what went right for players so we can all learn from my mistakes or my foresight as we begin to plan for the 2019 season. It is not too early as I received my first 2019 mock draft notification in my inbox just this morning!
In 2017, Bundy was very much an average pitcher in the American League as his metrics were right there with the masses:
| SPLIT | ERA | FIP | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | HR/FB | K% | BB% |
| 2017 AL Starters | 4.54 | 4.56 | 1.4 | .297 | 72 | 14 | 21 | 8 |
| 2017 Bundy | 4.24 | 4.38 | 1.4 | .273 | 74 | 12 | 22 | 7 |
That has not been the case in 2018. Bundy has been decidedly worse this year with the home run, despite the fact he has been better than the league average with strikeouts:
| SPLIT | ERA | FIP | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | HR/FB | K% | BB% |
| 2018 AL Starters | 4.41 | 4.33 | 1.3 | .294 | 72 | 13 | 21 | 8 |
| 2018 Bundy | 5.37 | 5.11 | 2.1 | .314 | 69 | 17 | 24 | 7 |
A big reason why I was excited for Bundy coming into the season was that he turned a corner over the final two months of 2017 and got his slider back in action to the point that pitch had the seventh-highest swing and miss rate for all starting pitchers with at least 250 sliders in 2017. The slider has still been there for him this season, but he has been a bit unlucky with it:
| SEASON | PITCHES | SWING% | SWSTR% | CHASE% | OppBA | wOBA | xwOBA |
| 2017 | 632 | 52 | 25 | 43 | .173 | .213 | .199 |
| 2018 | 611 | 51 | 26 | 40 | .172 | .244 | .173 |
It has been nearly as unhittable, but there is a sizable gap between his wOBA when using the pitch and his xwOBA. The .244 wOBA is still very low, but the pitch could be doing even better for him.
We've established that it is not the slider that has abandoned him this year. He is throwing the pitch even more frequently this year than he did last year, but his overall results have been worse. That means his fastball is not doing well.
By run values, Bundy's fastball has never been good. It has been a below-average pitch for his career, but this year, it is decidedly worse with a -14.5 grade, and that comes on the heels of a -7.9 grade last season:
| SEASON | PITCHES | SWING% | SWSTR% | CHASE% | OppBA | wOBA | xwOBA |
| 2017 | 1515 | 50 | 8 | 30 | .285 | .366 | .390 |
| 2018 | 1385 | 52 | 8 | 26 | .298 | .399 | .418 |
The numbers are decidedly worse when Bundy is behind in the count:
| SEASON | PITCHES | SWING% | SWSTR% | CHASE% | OppBA | wOBA | xwOBA |
| 2017 | 326 | 45 | 6 | 18 | .254 | .407 | .466 |
| 2018 | 321 | 51 | 8 | 20 | .357 | .514 | .530 |
The league has had little trouble with his fastball when they know it is coming. Bundy has thrown fastballs 63 percent of the time when he is behind in the county. It is one reason why 20 of his 37 homers this season have come off fastballs, seven of which have come when Bundy is behind in the count and comes plateward with a fastball. The frustrating part for Bundy owners is not that he is pitching from behind in the count often, because he is not. Here are Bundy's plate discipline numbers against the league-wide figures for starting pitchers in 2018:
| SPLIT | O-SWING% | Z-SWING% | 0-CONTACT% | Z-CONTACT% | CONTACT% | ZONE% | 1ST K% |
| Bundy | 34 | 65 | 54 | 86 | 75 | 51 | 12 |
| League | 31 | 67 | 65 | 86 | 78 | 43 | 10 |
Bundy gets the same amount of contact within the zone, less contact outside of it, and less contact overall. He is in the zone more than his starting peers, and that is where I feel the problem lies. Watching him pitch and watching the numbers tells me that Bundy's issues are a command problem, not a control problem. He can find the strike zone; what he struggles with is hitting his location on a consistent basis and some other numbers play that out.
Baseball Prospectus came out with Command Score last year, expanding the ability of the Called Strikes Above Average stat. The creators state:
Command Score provides a new heuristic for understanding the ability of a pitcher to command his pitches. It is a composite statistic the includes CSAA in addition to other factors that we believe reflect a pitcher's ability to command their pitches.
There are 57 starting pitchers with at least 150 innings pitched in 2018. The best command score in the league is owned by Kyle Hendricks at 67, while the lowest is James Paxton at 25. Bundy is 45th on the list with a command score of 44, just in front of Lucas Giolito. There is an old announcer theory that most home runs are pitched, not hit. Essentially, pitchers have the advantage nearly every time they pitch the baseball, but if they miss their spot, that advantage quickly disappears.
The list below are just a few examples of Bundy's command problem. Watch where the catcher sets up for the pitch, and then watch where the pitch comes over the plate:
•Example 1
•Example 2
•Example 3
•Example 4
•Example 5
Bundy turns 26 just after the season ends. He will still have fewer than 500 innings pitched at the major league level. In this body of work, we have seen a pitcher with one excellent pitch, a bad fastball, the ability to control the strike zone, but an inability to command the strike zone. These conditions are the breeding grounds for relievers because the bad fastball can play up with more velocity as increased velocity can cover for some mistakes, but not all of them. If I were running Baltimore, I would turn the entire rotation into what Tampa Bay is doing with three-fifths of its rotation this year. Bundy should be able to do better knowing he only has to pitch 50-60 pitches in a game and not worry about trying to go 100 every five days. It is a tough call to move a former high draft pick to the bullpen before his 27th birthday and the 500-inning mark of his career, but what we are seeing now is not working.
If Baltimore wants to send him away to a better pitcher's park, I would be more intrigued with him continuing as a starter, but I am mostly convinced the successful path forward for Bundy is one out of the bullpen. If he can find command for his pitches, he could be a future closer.
