Oak’s Corner: Some Tough 2019 Fades

Well, we have somehow reached the final week of the season. It has been a rough couple fantasy weeks here, as I have had offenses go ice cold and pitchers get shut down or sent to the pen, but I'm still trying to grind it out to the finish. For my last column of the season next week, I like to look forward to next year's draft and pick out targets I'm already looking at for the projected 2019 price. So this week, I'm going to flip that script and take a look at some players who I think will be overdrafted next offseason.

This list is always difficult because in order to make it good and interesting, I have to pick good players whom a lot of people like for good reasons, but for one factor or another, I think they will go too early in 2019. So while it might be easy to list some mediocre player as a fade, I prefer to make (or at least try to make!) this a useable list you can hopefully use when you research for 2019, and it might make you take a second look at these players to see if you are willing to pay for their ADP. They very well may be taken, but it likely won't be by me at the table when I see you in person in March or one of the online draft rooms. Thanks for reading all year, good luck on finishing 2018 and in starting to build a strong draft plan for 2019.

Yasmani Grandal, Dodgers – Catcher has been a wasteland in a lot of ways this year, but for much of the season, Yasmani Grandal was a bright spot at the position, hitting .251 with 13 homers in the first half. The second half has been ugly, particularly due to a big increase in his strikeout rate from 21.9 percent before the break to 28.2 percent after. It has even gotten worse recently, sitting over 30 percent since August 1. He has managed 10 homers in the second half, but it has come with a .204 average and only 20 RBI. At a weak position on a marquee team, Grandal's homers will play in drafts, but the second half fall-off is very concerning to me. I think he represents a real batting average risk.

He does hit the ball hard with a 40.2 percent contact rate on the year, but even that has come down to 36.7 percent in the second half. He has also become very pull happy this year with a career high 48 percent pull rate, a number that will lead to more shifts, which will likely put even more of a damper on his batting average. On RotoWire's earned auction values for 2018, Grandal currently checks in as the fourth best catcher, and while he won't get drafted quite that high, as guys below him like Gary Sanchez and Willson Contreras will go higher in drafts next year, Grandal will likely be a top-eight catcher off the board. The warts I have seen in the second half this year will definitely make me pass at that price. I talked about Contreras last week, but he is another catcher I won't be paying the ADP for next season after his poor 2018.

Christian Yelich, Brewers – This one will not be popular and I do get it, Yelich is really, really good and has been an absolute stud in the second half. During his completely bonkers run since the All-Star break, Yelich is hitting .356 with 20 homers and 50 RBI in 55 as he has carried the Brewers to their current lead in the NL Wild Card. On the season, Yelich is hitting .319 with 31 homers, shattering his previous career high of 21 homers. The move from Miami to Milwaukee was obviously a big one in terms of the lineup around him and the home park in which he would be playing 81 games. His ADP rose rapidly during March, settling in at 35 in the NFBC Main Event. That number is going to fly higher and there is a very good chance that he will be a first rounder next March and that will be a price I just can't pay.

Yelich has impressively boosted his hard hit rate to an elite 47.4 percent after a 35.2 percent rate last year, but even that will not make up for a 22.5 percent fly ball rate. At his price next year, Yelich will have to be a 35-homer bat, and I just don't see the 33.3 percent HR/FB coming anywhere near that mark again, especially considering his career 19.7 percent mark, even when including this year. That 33.3 percent number is so elevated that it actually puts him No. 1 in all of baseball. Yelich has often been a high BABIP guy, but even that number is a touch high this season at .369. The second half is going to shoot his price way up in drafts next year, and he may also win the MVP to boost it even higher. When it comes down to it, I will likely have Yelich projected around 25 homers next year, even in Milwaukee, and I'm just not willing to pay the price tag for him with that projection. I think he's an incredible hitter and really fun to watch, but I'm going to like other batters in the range more than him.

Andrew Benintendi, Red Sox – This one will also not be popular, as Benintendi is a very well-liked player and I like to watch him play. He was a riser in drafts this year also with an ADP of 40 in 34 NFBC Main Event Drafts. He has the benefit of hitting in an excellent lineup and that has helped his counting stats a lot as he scored his 100th run on Thursday night and has already topped 80 RBI. He only has 16 homers on the year but has pitched in nicely with 20 steals. His speed/power combo plus his spot in the Boston lineup and only being 24 years old is likely going to elevate him into the second round in 15-team drafts, and I will be a full pass at that price.

The first concern for me with Benintendi has been his season-long issue with a lack of hard contact. He currently sits at 28.2 percent, a number that puts him in the bottom 12 of all qualified hitters in baseball. After an early-season start where he didn't make a lot of hard contact, he improve there in June and July as he looked to be locking, but has fallen off again in the last two months, posting hard hit rates under 30 percent in August and September. His second half overall is very concerning, as he quietly has been a really poor fantasy player. Since the break, in 50 games, Benintendi is hitting .263 but has only hit two homers to go with three stolen bases. At the break, he had 14 homers and 17 steals, and it looked like a 25/25 season was very well within range. It's clear now that he is not even going to get to 20/20. He is still young, the talent is very much there and the team situation helps, but Benintendi's ADP is going to be too high in 2019 and I will be fading it, especially with the mass of great talent that will be available in the second and third rounds next year.

Noah Syndergaard, Mets – After throwing only 30.1 innings in 2017, I thought that Syndergaard would see a decreased draft price in 2018, but after he looked good in spring training, the price once again soared on his monster upside, and his ADP ended up at 20.6 in the NFBC Main Event. Jeff Erickson and I discussed Thor in the preseason on the RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Podcast and I thought his ADP was way too high, but that was because of injury. I acknowledged that if he pitched 180 innings, he could very well be the best pitcher in fantasy baseball. Of course, the injury bug did get him again as he has only thrown 139.1 innings over 23 starts. He hasn't been bad guy, and his 3.36 ERA is still great, but he hasn't quite been the dominant guy you wanted at the price, especially when factoring in the injury risk.

His strikeouts have dropped to a career low 9.3 K/9, while his walk rate has also increased a little bit to 2.39 BB/9. His velocity has dropped a bit but is still great at 97.5, and he has limited hard contact exceptionally well at 22.1 percent, but, over the last two years, his fastball has actually held a negative pitch value on FanGraphs. So while maybe not quite as dominant, he has still been really good, but for the price tag he's likely to go for if he looks healthy in the spring, I still think the injury risk is way too high. I love watching the guy pitch when he is on, but it's likely going to be on someone else's fantasy team again next season.

Zack Greinke, Diamondbacks – Greinke is about to pass 200 innings for the second straight season and currently has an excellent 3.20 ERA, which exactly matches his 2017 mark. However, there a number of cracks that are starting to show for Greinke that make me quite concerned about drafting him in 2019. To start, his strikeout rate as has dropped from 9.56 K/9 in 2017 to his current 8.66 K/9. His swinging strike rate drop to 10.7 percent from 12.4 percent supports the drop in strikeouts, but I'm most concerned with his velocity numbers.

Greinke averaged only 91 to 92 mph with his fastball over the last five years, but that has really dropped off this year. He now sits at 89.6 mph and his fastball has a negative pitch value on Fangraphs three years in a row. His curveball and changeup are still extremely effective and he mixed his pitches very well, but dropping under 90 mph is a pretty big red flag for me. In addition to the velo, I'm concerned about the batted ball profile on Greinke, as his hard hit rate jumped nearly five percent in 2017 and has now jumped nearly another five percent in 2018. His 39.8 percent hard hit rate gives him the fifth worst mark among all qualified starting pitchers. He has received some fortune from not only a .269 BABIP but an 81.2 percent strand rate, and his FIP shows some of that fortune at 3.79. Greinke was a mid-fourth-round pick in 2018 15-team drafts, and with another year with an ERA in the low threes, he will likely move up a little bit in 2019. That will be a price I will be a full fade on. I'm worried that his 2019 will look a lot different ratio-wise than the last two seasons.

Jake Arrieta, Phillies – Arrieta has managed a 3.77 ERA in his first season with the Phillies in 164.2 innings, but there is a lot of be concerned with when looking forward on him for 2019. That 3.77 is a solid number but it also represents the third straight year that his ERA has risen and his FIP has been over 4.00 the last two seasons. The most concerning aspect about Arrieta's 2018 is the drastic drop in his strikeout rate. After maintaining a strikeout rate of about 9.00 K/9 over the past four seasons, he has dropped to 7.27 K/9, and his swinging strike rate has also dropped to only 7.8 percent.

On the plus side, he has bumped his ground ball rate back over 50 percent and has suppressed hard contact with a hard hit rate under 30 percent for the seventh straight season. His velocity actually increased across the board, but his pitch effectiveness fell with three of his four pitches, with just his cutter showing improvement from 2017. Arrieta's ADP in 2018 was 102.4 in NFBC Main Event drafts and one would think that would have to fall a bit more in 2019, but I think his name value alone will still cause him to get drafted too high for me to take a chance on him. The extreme drop in his strikeout rate is a major concern, especially since you really want your top three to four starting pitchers to be guys who create a great strikeout base for your fantasy rotation.

FAAB Feelings

Free agency in the final week is a really difficult task but can obviously make the difference between winning and losing a league. Many leagues will come down to a few strikeouts or wins, and finding those pitchers who might make two starts in the final week can be huge. There's a clear luck element in pitchers making that second start over the final weekend, as playoff teams could back off their starters and a noncontending team may shut down a veteran and let a young guy take that final start. I have tried to find a couple of guys who have a chance to go twice next week, but again, no one is a lock for two starts in the final week.

Framber Valdez – I wrote up Valdez last week for his projected two starts, so there is not much new to add on him, but he did pitch well against Seattle on Monday, throwing five shutout innings, but the walks are still a huge concern, as he issued five free passes. The Astros shuffled their rotation to get Gerrit Cole a few extra days of rest, and that pushed Valdez to a possible two-start week this week instead. If you need wins and strikeouts and can stomach some Whip risk, he's still an add for this week.

Felix Pena – Pena was scheduled to face a tough two-start week this past week at Oakland and at Houston (but is still owned in only 31 percent in NFBC 12-teamers), but the return of Tyler Skaggs pushed Pena to a possible two starts this week, with both starts at home, facing the Rangers and A's. If he gets the second start, it's quite possible he could face the A's second stringers as they may have clinched the Wild Card and home field may be decided already by the final day.

Pena has made 16 starts for the Angels this year and has been decent with a 4.20 ERA, a 3.91 FIP and a 79:27 K:BB ratio in 85.2 innings. He suffered a rough start on Wednesday against the A's, but prior to that start, he had an eight-start stretch where he allowed more than three earned runs only once. With two-start guys hard to find in the final week, Pena is very worth a shot this week for the strikeouts and a chance at wins without too much ratio risk.

Sandy Alcantara – Alcantara is scheduled to pitch at the Nationals on Monday, and then the Marlins will have to decide if they want to have him throw over the weekend in New York against the Mets. After being recalled for a start on September 5, Alcantara has made three starts, two of which were great and then he had a stumble this week against the Nats (yes, he is set to face them again) with an extremely ugly 12 baserunners in four innings. The 23-year-old righty doesn't profile as a big strikeout guy with only 6.85 K/9 in 115.2 Triple-A innings this year, but he does throw hard with a fastball over 95 mph, and with two starts and a solid showing in two of his last three starts, he's worth a small bid if you need an arm for the final week and is only owned in 26 percent of NFBC 12-teamers.