Oak's Corner: The Two-Week Warning

Happy final two weeks! We are officially at the point of the season where every win and stolen base carries significance, and every projected starter can be a shot in the dark as teams scratch guys or shut down pitchers. I'm in a couple of leagues where strikeouts may determine the winner, and it can be a tough and agonizing time of year to just get those starters you need to actually take the mound. It is important to take note of how teams that have clinched or teams that have no shot are deploying their regulars as you set your lineups for the finals two weeks so you can try to locate that last gem on the waiver wire. Stay vigilant and set it the best you can, the rest lay in the hands of those evil fantasy gods.

Last week, I looked toward 2019 drafts at some 2018 breakout players and how they got to their breakout and where they may fall in drafts next season, This week, I am going to flip the script and take a look at some 2018 early-round disappointments, try and figure out why they failed and think about where they may go in 2019 as they become the newest crop of the "last year's bums."

Kris Bryant – After winning the Rookie of the Year in 2015 followed by the MVP, Bryant was a mid-first rounder in 2017 drafts, and while he did hit .295 with 29 homers, it was definitely a significant step down from 2016 as he only drove in 73 runs. His price did not fall far this season as he was usually a very early second rounder in 15-team drafts, but this season has been one to forget, mostly due to a lingering shoulder injury, which has caused him to miss time and under-perform when he has been on the field.

Bryant has only played 87 games and in those games, has only managed 11 homers while hitting .277. His season has been especially painful when one considers other second rounders in his range were Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor and J.D. Martinez. One has to think the shoulder has sapped his power to a large degree, but my biggest concern in looking at Bryant is the lack of hard contact over the last two seasons. After posting a 40.3 percent hard hit rate in 2016, Bryant has been at only 32.8 percent in 2017 and 2018, a very pedestrian number for someone we consider a prime power hitter.

His HR/FB has been a bit unlucky at 10.5 percent this year, but if he is going to be counted on in drafts as an elite power hitter, he is really going to need to find his hard hit stroke from 2016. On the plus side, Bryant is only 26 and hits in a very good lineup, but there is no doubt his draft price will fall next year, especially with a crop of youngsters steamrolling into the top two rounds. After the past two years, I think Bryant sneaks into the early third round and with a clean bill of health, I will likely be a buyer in that range. I think there is just too much talent there for him to fall off at such a young age.

Stephen Strasburg – Coming off a career best 2.75 ERA in 175.1 innings in 2017, Strasburg was the sixth pitcher off the board in NFBC Main Event drafts with an ADP of 22.3. He has struggled a lot with injuries in 2018 and will fail to make 30 starts for the fourth straight season, but an even bigger concern is the 3.87 ERA he has posted in those 114 innings. His strikeout and walk numbers are still very strong with a 10.5 K/9 and a 2.4 BB/9, but home runs have been a big issue for him with a 1.18 HR/9 rate, the first time he has even been over 1.00 per nine. His FIP shows he has not been the same pitcher in 2018 as it stands at 3.48, the first time it has surpassed 3.00 in the last five years.

Strasburg has allowed more hard contact in 2018 with a four percent increase in his hard hit rate to 31.9 percent and a bump up to a 22.3 percent line drive rate. His fastball velocity has been slightly down, but, surprisingly, the pitch has really hurt him with a -6.7 pitch value on Fangraphs after double digit positive numbers in that stat in the past two seasons. His swinging strike rate is a touch down from 2017, but still solid at 11.9 percent, so I see no reason for concern there. Strasburg is definitely going to drop in 2019 drafts, some due to his performance this year, some due to the injury that caused him to miss so many starts, but also some due to the frustration he can cause fantasy owners. With the strikeout and walk numbers lining up with 2017 and no serious drop off in his velocity, I'll look to buy Strasburg in 2019, but he will have to come at a discount due to the injury risk, and I'll hope I can get him at the 3-4 turn in 15-teamers at around pick 45.

Willson Contreras – After a 2017 that saw Contreras mash 21 homers in only 428 plate appearances, he took a large climb up in 2018 drafts and was the second catcher off the board. On a side note, how bad have the top catchers been in fantasy baseball this year? The first three catchers in almost every draft were Gary Sanchez who is hitting .180, and Buster Posey and Contreras who are both sitting in single digits in homers. Contreras has suffered a surprising power outage this year with only nine big flies in 499 plate appearances, while hitting .258 with only 50 RBI. After averaging over a 25 percent HR/FB rate in his first two seasons, that mark has crashed this season on Contreras, checking in at nine percent. Some of that is unfortunate luck, but it is also quite concerning that his hard hit rate has fallen off to under 30 percent after checking in at 35.5 percent in 2017.

His lack of fly balls does put a cap on his home run potential as his 31.5 percent fly ball rate this year is actually the highest of his career. At only 26, he still has plenty of time to build his home run upside, but until he shows that, I'm very likely to pass on him in drafts assuming he is still fairly pricey. I tend to be very wary of catchers, as it is in the first eight to 10 rounds of a draft due to their built-in higher injury upside. While he will definitely not repeat his ADP of around 50 this year, even if he falls 25 to 30 spots, I will have other players in that range I will certainly like more.

FAAB Feelings

It can be very tough to find guys to contribute in these final two weeks, so I am going to hit more guys than usual in this section to attempt to identify a couple guys on offense who can help you and also break down a number of pitchers who have two starts scheduled (key word, scheduled!) coming up this week.

Ji-Man Choi – Choi has been a fun story in Tampa Bay, gaining regular playing time vs. righties lately and responding with four homers in 10 September games. Choi is probably better deployed in a daily league where you can sit him when the Rays face a lefty, but he can be also used in bi-weekly leagues like the NFBC as the Rays are scheduled to face right-handers in seven of their next 10 games starting with their three game set against the A's on Friday.

After hopping around with five franchises over the past four years, Choi has finally found a home in Tampa and has mashed the ball with them. He has posted a large 45.1 percent contact rate, a number that would put him among the top 20 hitters in baseball if he had enough at-bats. Choi is very much a ride him while he is hot play, but with only two weeks left, that is exactly what we are looking for, and if you need a few taters down the stretch, Choi is an excellent guy on whom to take a stab and is readily available as he is owned in only 38 percent of NFBC 15-teamers and even less so in 12 teamers.

Lewis Brinson – Brinson was a key piece acquired by the Marlins in the Christian Yelich trade and started the year as the Marlins center fielder but struggled mightily before ending up on the DL with a hip injury in early July. He has returned to the Marlins this month and is currently hitting .317 in 11 September games and also stole a base on Thursday. He is playing every day for the Marlins and should the rest of the way, and we are currently in the time of year where consistent playing time is a big part of the battle. Brinson does have an intriguing power/speed combo skill set as he hit 13 homers while stealing 11 bags in 76 games in Triple-A in 2017. I always like a hyped prospect late in the season, especially on a noncontending team, as the pressure is minimal, and with every day AB, I like a Brinson add this week. He's only owned in 16 percent of NFBC 12-team leagues.

Andrew Suarez – The Giants have been a total trainwreck as of late, but Suarez has been pretty solid over his last four starts with only eight runs allowed and five of those came in one start in Coors Field. Due a multitude of injuries in the Giants rotation, Suarez has thrown 145.1 innings in the majors this year, and while the strikeouts are mediocre at 7.5 K/9, he has exhibited nice control with a 2.4 BB/9 walk rate. While I clearly prefer Suarez starts in the friendly confines of AT&T Park, he does get a start against the Padres in Petco Park to start the week before facing the Cardinals in St. Louis. The Cardinals start scares me a bit, but off his recent success, I like a small bid on Suarez week with the scheduled two-step.

Brad Keller – Every time I think about picking up Keller, I look at is 6.15 K/9 strikeout rate and my interest wanes. Keller has laughed at my reservation with an insanely impressive run of starts lately, allowing two runs or fewer in his last six outings, including two against the first place Indians. In his first year in the majors, Keller has been called upon to throw 127.1 innings for the Royals and has responded with a 3.04 ERA. His 8.7 percent swinging strike rate sure does not make it seem as if a strikeout bump is coming, but he has effectively limited hard contact with a 31.6 percent hard hit rate on the season.

Keller does throw 94 mph and his fastball appears to have some nice hop on it as he has posted an impressive 16.9 pitch value on Fangraphs with his heater, a number that puts him in the top 10 among all pitchers who have thrown 100 innings. Keller is scheduled to make two starts this week, one in Pittsburgh and one in Detroit, both teams who rank in the bottom third of MLB in runs scored since the All-Star Break. Even with the recent run of success, Keller is still only owned in 32 percent of NFBC 12-team leagues and while the lack of punch outs will continue to concern me regarding his upside, the matchups and recent form suggest he has to be bid on this week.

Jordan Zimmerman – After posting an extremely ugly 6.08 ERA in 2017, many thought J Zimm was done being an effective starter in the majors, but he has bounced back nicely in 2018, posting a 4.17 ERA across 116.2 inning for the Tigers. He has rediscovered his impeccable control, dropping his walk rate to 1.54 BB/9 so far on the season while also bumping his strikeout nearly two strikeouts per nine to 7.71 K/9. The major issue with Zimmermann, which is not a surprise, is the homers, as he has allowed 24 already this year with a scary 18 of those coming in his last 11 starts. To further build on the recent issues with the long ball, Zimmermann has allowed multiple homers in seven of his last 11 starts.

With limited options and many starters getting ramped down the final two weeks, every two-start pitcher needed to be at least looked at and considered. Zimmermann makes the list this week due to matchups as he gets home starts against the Royals and Twins, both teams that rank in the bottom ten in all of baseball in term of home runs. If Zimm allows multiple homers, the results are not going to be great, but if he can avoid the long ball in these starts and the matchups help him in that regard, he could be a nice source of ratios and strikeouts this week.

Framber Valdez – Valdez posted some excellent peripheral numbers in Double-A this season with a 11.45 K/9 strikeout rate and a 2.77 BB/9 walk rate, and while his ERA was just over 4.00 in those 94.1 innings, the FIP was excellent at 2.92. His experience in the majors has been the opposite as he has posted a 2.66 ERA, but the strikeouts are down and the walks have been a big issue with a 5.32 BB/9 walk rate in 23.2 innings. He managed to allow only one run in his first three starts, but allowed four in his most recent start, although those runs came on a bad hop grounder that should have been a third out that was followed by a three run homers.

Valdez is certainly a ratio risk with the elevated walk rate, but the strikeout upside is still there, and he's intriguing play for wins with two starts as he has the Astros offense scoring runs for him. His matchups this week are both home as he faces the Angels and the Mariners, and while the Angels have been pretty good in the second half, the Mariners have scored the third fewest runs in baseball in that stretch. He carries some definite Whip risk especially, but I like the upside he flashed in Double-A and he will be someone I will toss a bid on where I need wins or strikeouts.