Mound Musings: Targeting 2019 – Building Your Draft Day Value List

You might be in a pennant race, or you might be looking forward to 2019. If your season is slipping away (or slipped away earlier), that doesn't mean your job is done. This is a great time to do your homework for next year and even lay the foundations for a big season in 2019. This week we'll look at players to target next spring. Keep in mind, these won't necessarily be the "best" pitchers next season. These are pitchers who could potentially offer considerable value on draft day. These could be difference makers. The big name aces will likely post excellent numbers next season, but in the majority of leagues, you'll pay full price for those stats. We're looking for valuable arms you can buy at a discount. Let's see who tops the list of pitchers who are establishing themselves as players to target on draft day 2019:

Carlos Rodon (White Sox) – Sometimes a young pitcher and his team hit stride together, and that just might be the case for Rodon and the White Sox. Rodon is a blue chip pitcher who has been slowed somewhat by a variety of injuries, and the Sox have a roster overflowing with top-shelf young position players who are gradually jelling into a very competitive group. I think there's a very good chance both will take a big step forward in 2019. He missed time again this season, and the rust was evident upon his return, but the stuff is there, and the command is coming. If his lackluster WHIP and ERA, coupled with the fact that he pitched for a weaker team, deflate his draft price next spring, I believe he could be one of the most profitable picks at the table.

Walker Buehler (Dodgers) – The top spots on this list are prized positions, and Buehler has been campaigning for that recognition all year. I love just about everything about him, and a relatively light workload this year could equate to a small discount on draft day next spring. His fastball is electric and his secondary pitches just keep getting better. His curveball is just filthy. I almost didn't include him here simply because I doubt he is much of a secret in very many leagues, but on the other hand, I think he might outperform even fairly optimistic projections. His command is good, not great, but it will hopefully catch up with his stuff, and then the sky's the limit. The Dodgers might still exercise caution with his workload next year, but I don't think it reduces his value.

Kevin Gausman (Braves) – Regular readers know about the trials and tribulations Gausman (and his fantasy owners) have suffered through. Baltimore might be a great place for seafood (trust me, it is) but it's not the ideal place to hurl baseballs from a bump in the middle of a grassy field. I talk about him often, and I remain convinced he is destined to be the top dog in a MLB rotation. I think he may have landed in the right place after being dealt to Atlanta at the non-waiver trade deadline. His numbers since joining the Braves have been very good – hopefully not so good that he will find himself on the hot commodity lists next spring – and I think he's just going to get better as he settles in, pitching for an excellent team. Next season might be your last chance to get him at a discount, but it's time to recoup the investment you have made over the past few years.

Tyler Glasnow (Rays) – Having watched Glasnow closely during his minor league tenure, I have long been convinced he has the tools and could be a successful starting pitcher at the MLB level. Unfortunately, he didn't seem to be so sure. He literally dominated Triple-A (and I don't use that term lightly) but would lose the strike zone when up with the Pirates. It was a combination of his still somewhat erratic command, MLB hitters being less likely to swing at pitches out of the zone, and a tendency to nibble rather than just going after the batter. Like Gausman, he was a prime candidate to benefit from that "changes in latitudes" angle, and it happened when he was traded to Tampa Bay. He's still a bit spotty with his command, but he does appear to be realizing that his stuff plays at the highest level. On a side note, don't overlook Chris Archer. The Pirates paid a huge price for him (including Glasnow), and even though his initial results in Pittsburgh haven't been very good, they clearly believe they can figure him out.

James Paxton (Mariners) – If you've watched Paxton at least a few times, you might ask how he can make it onto this list. When he's healthy, he's capable of jaw-dropping performances. There's the problem – "healthy" isn't a given. I don't think Paxton has pitched more than 150 innings in any MLB season. That makes him a prototypical high risk/high reward play in the fantasy game. I guess I just think there is a full season in there somewhere, and with his injury history he should come at a decent discount. Like most pitchers, Paxton excels when he gets into a rhythm, and the stop and start path he has followed with the injuries has made getting there almost impossible. His pure upside makes him worth a flyer, but be sure to have a contingency plan.

Kyle Freeland (Rockies) – If he pitched his home games anywhere but Colorado, he would be a full price buy in most drafts, but Coors Field will likely deflate the price tag somewhat when his name comes up next spring. The Rockies appear to be figuring out the formula for pitching in the hitter haven that is their home ballpark. You could make the argument that German Marquez could also have a spot here, but his home/road splits probably keep him in a matchup role for fantasy purposes. Freeland still puts too many men on base, and that makes me nervous, but a lot of soft contact, and an ability to keep the ball in the yard make him worthy of fairly regular starts. There's certainly risk attached, but that keeps the price low. Just avoid the most dangerous home starts.

Matt Harvey (Reds) – No value list would be complete without a real leap of faith. Here he is. I loved Harvey when he first arrived, and he was a treat to watch when he was on the mound. Distractions off the field and slow recovery from thoracic outlet surgery have combined to tarnish his status, but I have seen glimpses of the original Harvey over the second half of the season. There are some question marks. He's a free agent, so he may not be back in Cincinnati next year. That's okay. His current home field adds to his propensity to allow home runs, so a more pitcher-friendly landing spot could be a plus, as long as he stays focused on baseball. Harvey is an exceptional talent, and I'm betting on him getting his career back on track. Grab some popcorn and enjoy the show.

Shohei Ohtani (Angels) – I'll make this short and to the point. A fully healthy Ohtani is a top-20 starting pitcher. If he wasn't limited to starting once a week, and if he wasn't handling the additional burden of hitting three or four times a week, he would be top-10. He's that talented. Now, the bad news. On Wednesday, it was announced Ohtani has suffered further damage to his UCL, and Tommy John surgery is being considered. If that happens, he's off the table for 2019. However, even in that worst case scenario, I would consider stashing him on my keeper roster in anticipation of a 2020 return. In all the years, I haven't seen many pitchers with a higher ceiling.

There you have it – a few arms with a lot of positive indicators. They may not be fantasy staff aces, but they could offer exceptional value, and that wins leagues.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• The Jays' Marcus Stroman continues to be plagued by a blister issue. It seems like a minor ailment, but it doesn't take much to throw a pitcher off his game. Stroman is a competent starter, but until he finds a grip that doesn't create (or further irritate) the blister, he is likely to be ineffective when he pitches.

• The Cardinals also have a pitcher who nearly made my target list above. The only thing that kept Luke Weaver from being included was a potential wealth of starting pitching in St. Louis next season. When healthy, the team has some of the best starting pitching in baseball. I still think Weaver has the upside to shine.

• The Red Sox have indicated they might use Chris Sale as an "opener" (short start) during their upcoming homestand, as they ease him back into the rotation while conserving him for the playoffs. Their World Series aspirations center on Sale and could lead to a significant dip in his fantasy value right now.

• I'm also going to throw the Cubs' Yu Darvish into the possible 2019 value target game. He experienced all kinds of physical maladies during a 2018 to forget, but he's a tier one starting pitcher when he's fully healthy. There is unquestionable risk given the considerable time missed, but monitor him closely next spring.

• Mike Clevinger of the Indians also received consideration for the value target list. Even though he's had a very good season, he doesn't get the attention of some pitchers with less appealing peripherals. He just needs to be a bit more efficient to take another step forward next season.

• Strikeouts generally draw attention when pitchers are being evaluated for draft day, but the Diamondbacks' Robbie Ray has never really gotten untracked this year after missing two months with an oblique strain, and his numbers might lead to a modest discount next spring. I'm buying if other owners underbid on him.
  

It seems the Cardinals have some tough decisions to make regarding the ninth inning, I believe they think Jordan Hicks will eventually step into the role, but he's not ready yet, and, being in a playoff race, they are compelled to use a struggling Bud Norris. It appears Greg Holland has earned a chance to fill in, at least part time, as the Nats closer until regular end gamer Sean Doolittle returns. With Washington's playoff hopes nearly extinct, there's little reason for the team to push Doolittle, but he is reportedly getting close to a return. Most of the non-contenders who traded their closers at the deadline have struggled to find a trustworthy replacement. The Rangers are a notable exception. Jose Leclerc has stepped up and performed very well. He has the tools to continue as a solid closer going forward. The Dodgers' Kenley Jansen will skip the upcoming series against the Rockies in Colorado. Apparently, there are concerns the high altitude could contribute to the heart condition that sidelined him last month.