Oak’s Corner: Peralta and Kendrys on Fire

The Week That Was

After an injury marred 2016 where he only played 48 games, David Peralta bounced back in 2017 with a .293 average, but it came with only 14 homers. It seemed like the right wrist injury from 2016 might still be sapping his power, as wrist injuries often can. The wrist hasn't been an issue in 2018 as after his recent white hot streak, Peralta finds himself hitting .306 with 25 homers and 70 RBI through 114 games. The most drastic aspect to his breakout is the massive increase in his hard contact. Peralta's hard hit rate in 2017 was 31.8 percent, his previous career high was 35.4 percent, but so far this year, he checks in at 47.4 percent, which puts him in the top 10 in baseball.

Peralta is such a fun story that I always find myself rooting for him. He initially came up in the Cardinals' system as a pitcher in 2006 and then found himself out of baseball before starting his path back into baseball as an outfielder in the independent leagues before latching on with the D'Backs. Peralta's HR/FB rate is certainly elevated at 23.1 percent, which has helped the home run breakout, but along with the increase in hard contact, he has also increased his fly ball rate over 30 percent. I owned Peralta in a couple of leagues in 2014 when he made his first splash in the majors so I found myself watching a lot of his at-bats, and the guy can really hit when he is healthy.

Peralta also finds himself in one of the prime batting spots in baseball, hitting in the top three of the D'Backs order every night, alongside Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock. Coming off the nice average but low power 2017, Peralta's ADP this March in NFBC Main Events was a mere 274, putting him in round 17 or 18, a crazy price on which to look back. Finding ADP gems like that is how you win leagues, of course. but the interesting thing now to look at is where Peralta will slot in next year. If I had to guess, I think he will slot around round pick 125; a spot I will be very willing to pay for in 2019.

Ronald Acuna played in only his 77th game of the season on Friday night after spending nearly the first month of the season in the minors and another month on the DL with a knee injury. He has taken the league by storm, especially as of late. The much heralded prospect is hitting .286 with 21 homers and 10 stolen bases despite the time missed. The power/speed combo in only about half a season of games has gained him a ton of fans in the fantasy community, and the real question is just how high will he rise in 2019 drafts? I think it's already assumed he will fall somewhere in the second round in 15 teamers, but a strong finish could push him into the top 20 overall.

Acuna's strikeout rate has jumped a bit from his rates in the minors last year to 26.6 percent, but that's to be expected from a rookie, and he has made a nice improvement in that number lately with a 20.4 percent strikeout rate in August. It's really scary to consider that Acuna is only 20, as his hard contact rates among the top hitters in the game this season with a 47.1 percent hard hit rate. That puts him top 10 in baseball among hitters with at least 300 plate appearances, slotting just ahead of MLB home run leader Khris Davis. The hard contact plus a solid 40.0 percent fly ball rate certainly shows the power is real, and at only 21 in 2019, his legs will still be fresh, and it feels pretty certain he'll have 15 to 20 stolen bases also. That huge power upside plus solid stolen base floor combo isn't easy to find, and Acuna is going to get pushed further up in drafts as the draft season goes along. I'm going to find it hard to dispute taking a shot on him high up in the second round.

The Cardinals have recently made a run to the top of the NL Wild Card and also sit only three games behind the Cubs in the NL Central. It's remarkable to think their best starting pitcher at the moment wasn't even a sure thing to be in the rotation at the start the season. Jack Flaherty made one start with the Cardinals in early April, but then had two different stints in the minors before finally locking into the rotation in mid-May. All Flaherty has done – while stepping into huge holes left by Carlos Martinez and Michael Wacha injuries – is make 21 starts and post a sparkling 2.97 ERA. He has bumped his strikeout rate significantly from his 2017 stat line in the minors or majors, currently striking out 11.24 batters per nine. These strikeouts are very well supported by a 13.4 percent swinging strike rate, which puts him 15th among all starters with at least 100 innings.

Flaherty has benefitted from a BABIP of .252, and the homers have bitten him a bit with 16 allowed already in 115.1 innings, but for a first real run of innings in the majors, Flaherty has been fantastic. He has really turned it on as of late, when the Cardinals really started rolling, posting a 1.08 ERA with 33 punch outs in 25 August innings. He has excellent pitch values with his fastball and slider, and the final step in his development will probably come from developing his changeup, as he currently only throws it four percent of the time, and an effective changeup could make him devastating. Flaherty is going to be popular in 2019 drafts, but with the strikeout and swinging strike gains this year and what I see while watching him pitch, I likely will be a buyer at his new elevated price tag.

FAAB Feelings

Phillip Ervin – Ervin was an intriguing speed/power combo guy after he posted a 13 homer, 36 stolen base season in Double-A in the Reds system in 2016. He made the majors for a quick 28-game stretch in 2017 but he's currently getting his first real run of playing time in the majors. Ervin has responded very well to the opportunity, hitting .298 through his first 141 plate appearances with four homers and four stolen bases. The stolen base upside is what makes Ervin particularly interesting, with multiple 30 stolen base seasons in the minors on his resume.

Ervin has recently moved up the Reds lineup with his success and some injuries in the Reds lineup. He's very readily available across leagues, as he's only owned in 44 percent of NFBC Main Event 15-team leagues and a mere three percent owned in NFBC 12-teamers. Any kind of stolen base upside with full playing time is very interesting in the final five weeks, and I'll be taking a chance on him and hoping for four to five steals and a couple of homers, especially in a nice home park on a team that should give him a green light.

Kendrys Morales – Morales really struggled through the first two months of the season, hitting only .203 with four homers and an ugly nine runs scored through the end of May. He was dropped in many leagues, especially with his utility-only eligibility to begin the season. Not only has he caught fire since his slow start, but he also obtained first-base eligibility along the way to add to his value. Since July 1, in 42 games, Morales is hitting over .300 with 11 homers, 23 runs and 23 RBI, a great stretch especially considering he was a free agent in most leagues.

Morales has hit a completely different level this week, homering again on Friday to make it six homers in his last five games. He's still only owned in 37 percent of NFBC 12-team leagues, but after this week, he will be the most popular add in leagues where he's still out there. Morales has managed to get his strikeout rate back under 20 percent after a 21.7 percent rate last year and is currently posting a career high 10.9 percent walk rate. Most impressive in his age 35 season, Morales currently is sporting the highest hard hit rate of his career with a 42.5 percent number. To go along with the hard contact, he has also ramped up his fly ball rate to his highest number since his 2009 career year in Anaheim. If Kendrys is still sitting out there in your league, he's a must bid this week, as power will not be easy to find on the waiver wire in the final five weeks.

Todd Frazier – If Morales is already scooped up in your league and you're looking for pop, Sneaky Todd is your next best bet. Frazier is only 35 percent owned in NFBC 12-teamers and has been in a really good groove since coming off the DL in early August. In his 21 games back, Frazier is hitting .280 with four homers and 14 RBI while hitting in the middle of the Mets lineup.

As a whole, the season has been a disappointment for Frazier with a .233 batting average and only 14 homers in 83 games played. Power hitters tend to be streaky and Frazier still has averaged nearly 33 homers per year over the past four seasons. Despite the less than exciting results on his stat line, Frazier has hit the ball hard so far this year, actually posting a current career high hard hit rate of 42.7 percent. Much like Morales, if you need some homers down the stretch, it's very worth taking a stab this weekend on the Toddfather hoping to ride a hot homer streak down the stretch.

A Closer Look

This has been an interesting year for closers, as many of them have lost their job or been traded, and instead of easy adds of the next man up, many teams have moved to committee or situations where the ninth inning pitcher is based on matchups. As the trend slowly moves to more teams employing such an approach, the slam dunk guys who are locked into every save opportunity will become more valuable. In a contest like the NFBC or others with an overall prize component, you have to get at least a decent amount of saves to have a chance in the overall competition and you also can't trade for them there.

Further, the old adage of don't pay for saves and just get them off the waiver wire hasn't worked especially well this season even with a lot of job turnover. Even if you can fall into a guy who locks in a new job, the amount of FAAB you spend chasing (and missing) on speculative closers, especially in a 15-teamer, can cripple you late in the season, as you have no FAAB left to address other issues or react to injuries. I think we will see Craig Kimbrel, Edwin Diaz, Kenley Jansen, Aroldis Chapman and Blake Treinen (and maybe Felipe Vazquez, too) get pushed up higher than normal in those type of contests as drafters realize how few rock solid guys there are, plus there will be a lot of owners who struggled more than usual with saves this year and may overcompensate in adjusting to 2019. I typically like to avoid the top tier of closers and grab guys in the second and third tier, but it sure feels like those tiers are shallower and riskier than in years' past. Saves strategy in 2019 is going to be a fascinating study, and I look forward to trying to figure it out and come up with a plan in the spring.

Seranthony Dominguez has locked down most of the Phillies saves chances over the past few months but he has hit a bit of a speed bump with a 7.11 ERA in 6.1 innings in August, while allowing runs in three of his last six appearances. The little bobble has allowed veteran reliever Pat Neshek to swoop in and lock down three saves since August 7. Neshek spent most of the season on the DL but has come back firing, allowing only two earned over his first 17 innings, good for a 1.06 ERA. The strikeouts have been a bit down to start this season at only 6.35 K/9, but he has consistently been around a strikeout per inning over the last four seasons, and one would think he will revert to that level.

Neshek was exceptional in 2017 with a 1.59 ERA in 62.1 innings, and manager Gabe Kapler has shown this year that he can be a bit unpredictable with the back end of the bullpen. Dominguez has still been really good on the season with a 2.66 ERA and an electric 11.45 K/9 strikeout rate, but Neshek could continue to pilfer some saves until Dominguez gets on a roll again. If you are like me and badly need saves, a small bid on Neshek could reward with a few saves in the final five weeks, and if nothing else, should come with some excellent ratios.