MLB Barometer: The Bigger Picture

If you're still reading this column each week, thanks for sticking with me deep into the season.

Hopefully, you're making your push toward a league title (or two), but even if it's not in the cards for this season, there is still plenty of information to gather as you begin the prep for a championship in 2019.

I wanted to take a step back and focus on a few bigger picture shifts in value that have resulted with recent promotions, position shifts, lineup adjustments, and swings in production.

The challenge I have had with this piece each week is writing about shifts in value with players that are not available as free agents in the overwhelming majority of leagues. Although, the more consistently actionable advice comes in the weekly FAAB/pickups articles that go up on Sundays.

With many leagues having a trade deadline approaching (if it hasn't passed already), this is one of the final in-season opportunities to consider major shifts in value with respect to improving your team immediately with a swap.

September callups are just around the corner, which will make things very complicated with injured players, and throughout rosters of non-contending MLB teams as they adjust roles to make evaluations of future pieces.

This week, we were fortunate enough to see another elite prospect get the call to the big leagues with the promotion of Michael Kopech to Chicago. We may have a few other promotions and waiver trades go down between now and next week's column, which will lead to a few more large shifts in value.

In that vein, I decided not to write up David Bote as a "faller" for this week since his value wasn't increased long enough for most owners to begin depending on him, but he looks like the ultimate loser with the Cubs' acquisition of Daniel Murphy on Tuesday.

Risers

Michael Kopech, SP, CHW -- Rain shortened Kopech's debut against the Twins on Tuesday night, but he fanned four hitters in two innings while scattered three hits, and he made it through the outing without issuing a walk. Control has been the sticking point with Kopech in the minors this season, and it's a big part of why his callup was on hold until August. Prior to getting the call from the White Sox, Kopech had a 59:4 K:BB over his last seven starts at Triple-A Charlotte. The arsenal is a very good one, as he can touch triple digits with his fastball, and he's worked on the consistency of his changeup throughout his time in the International League in 2018. In the debut, Kopech was leaning heavily on his fastball, which averaged 96.8 mph, and he mixed his slider and changeup (high-80s) a little more than 20 percent of the time. Kopech tossed 134 innings last season, and he's sitting with 128 for 2018 as his second start with the White Sox approaches (against the Tigers) on Sunday. He should get an opportunity to put another 35-40 innings on the ledger before the White Sox think about shutting him down, which leaves a window for five or six starts beyond Sunday's outing. Kopech has the long-term ceiling of a top-10 starting pitcher, and the short-term floor of an immediate top-50 arm with the potential be a difference-maker in the strikeout department immediately.

Eugenio Suarez, 3B, CIN -- The Reds have started to use Suarez as shortstop recently, as they're weighing the options for the eventual promotion of top prospect Nick Senzel in early 2019. There is enough time left in the season for Suarez to hit the 20-game threshold at add eligibility in most leagues, and he'll hit the current-season requirements in a few days, which affords owners some unexpected flexibility with their lineups for the home stretch. Suarez's year-over-year value is already on the rise, as he's gone from a discounted "wait-at-3B" played with an ADP outside the Top 150 in 2018, to a regular Top 100 pick for 2019.

As Alex Chamberlain of FanGraphs covered a couple months back, hard-hit rates are up league-wide, but Suarez's spike from a 33.8% mark in 2017 to 50.8% in 2018 is a mammoth leap. In terms of approach, Suarez has been more aggressive on pitches inside the strike zone, swinging at a career-high 71.1% rate (average: 65.2%). With those changes, his HR/FB has spiked, and his batting average has been flirting with .300 (.297 entering Wednesday's matinee). Suarez has earned more than $30 this season, according to the RotoWire Earn Values tool -- joining a group of 3B-eligible players that includes Jose Ramirez, Javier Baez, Nolan Arenado, Manny Machado and Alex Bregman.

Johan Camargo, SS/3B, ATL -- Camargo appeared on the list of player outlooks I was assigned last winter, and I came away impressed by some of the power growth he showed before and after his promotion to Atlanta last season. He's keeping a K% just below 20.0% for the second year in a row, and he's managed to double his walk rate from his rookie campaign, going from 4.7% to 10.3% in 2018. The Braves may have an interesting problem in 2019 if they deem Austin Riley ready to take over at third base, as Camargo has out-produced shortstop Dansby Swanson as a big-league hitter to this point. In over 1,000 MLB plate appearances, Swanson has posted a 78 wRC+, while in just over 600 MLB plate appearances, Camargo is sitting with a 109 mark. His appearance is a 'Riser' this week is backed by a recent run where he's hit .302/.345/.491 with four homers, 19 RBI and 15 runs scored over the last 30 days.

David Peralta, OF, ARI -- Peralta is one of several players surging in the power department recently, and his eight-homer stretch over the last 30 days has lifted his season total to a career-high 24 in just 486 plate appearances. Unlike teammate Paul Goldschmidt, Peralta's home/road power splits are balanced, despite the addition of the humidor at Chase Field this season (which has had its expected impact). Peralta's previous career-high homer total (17) happened in 2015, which was his first full season as a big-league position player. You might remember that his path to the big leagues was a long one, as he was a pitcher who blew out his arm in the Cardinals' system before he made his way Arizona after spending time making the move to the outfield in independent ball. While he turned 31 years old earlier this month, he's a few years younger from a development standpoint, which makes his late breakout more impressive. Peralta battled injuries in each of the last two seasons, and now he's returned to a slightly more pull-happy approach, while showing more success than ever against breaking pitches. It would be a surprise if his ADP topped out earlier than Pick 100 in 2019, but he's turned into a difference maker in the Arizona lineup now that he's healthy again.

Greg Allen, OF, CLE -- Entering Wednesday, Allen had started 10 straight games for Cleveland, as the Indians have been scrambling for outfield help in the absence of Leonys Martin (illness). Given the severity of Martin's condition, Allen is now positioned to be a fixture in the lineup down the stretch, and while he'll likely get most of the starts as the team's No. 9 hitter, he has a combination of plate skills and speed necessary to help owners in leagues with clustered stolen-base standings the rest of the way. In limited chances with the big club this season, Allen is 11-for-12 on the basepaths in 59 games. There isn't much power here, but Allen is hitting .321/.356/.381 since July 4, carrying a sub-10 percent K% during that span.

Mallex Smith, OF, TAM -- Smith has started all but one of the Rays' games since August 5, and he's hit from the leadoff spot in every one of those games. As the career playing time odometer rolls up to 1,000 plate appearances in the final month-and-a-half, Smith continues to draw walks at a steady clip (8.9%), and he's managed to shave his K% from 22.0% in 2017 to 18.5% in 2018. While he's almost certainly owned everywhere, Smith might be a safer player than Delino DeShields Jr. was during this past draft seasons, thanks to his ability to capably handle big-league fastballs, and his reduced whiff rates against breaking and off-speed pitches. The Rays' revamped outfield for 2019 figures to include Tommy Pham, Kevin Kiermaier and Austin Meadows as the primary trio, but Smith is lined up to be the primary backup at all three spots, offering plenty of paths to playing time.

Fallers

Yu Darvish, SP, CHC -- Darvish's season officially came to an end after he walked off the mound during a rehab start at South Bend on Sunday. The diagnosis was a fractured elbow tip and a strained triceps, which will cause him to be shut down for the next six weeks before he resumes activity. Injuries limited Darvish to just eight starts this season, and he was erratic in those outings. The overwhelming concern for 2019 is rooted in the nature of his injury, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in the past, and he wasn't pitching well at the end of 2017 with the Dodgers before reaching free agency. In his effort to make it back to the mound this season, Darvish tweaked his mechanics to reduce the strain on his arm. We'll have the benefit of knowing how things go over the next six or seven months before having to decide on the best course of action for most 2019 drafts, but Darvish is an easy drop in keeper leagues where he doesn't have an extremely low salary, and it's difficult to imagine taking a chance on him in the first 10 rounds of a 15-team draft if you happen to be on board for an early 2019 draft during the fall or early winter.

Carlos Martinez, RP, STL -- Lat, oblique and shoulder injuries have ruined Martinez's season, and the latest ailment (the shoulder) prompted the Cardinals to move him to the bullpen for the rest of 2018. While there is no indication that he's going to stick in that role beyond this season, the concern about his ability to hold up physically with a starter's workload the rest of the way raises questions about his future. Control became an issue following the lat injury, and it's extremely difficult to discern how exactly the performance has been impacted by his lack of health. Relative to Darvish, I'm more willing to absorb risk for 2019 in early drafts with Martinez in the Pick 100-125 range if he's able to finish the season without another DL stint, but that might not be early enough him in most draft rooms. With Bud Norris pitching on a one-year contract, the assumption is that the closer of the future role belongs to Jordan Hicks, but Martinez would move to the front of the line take on the ninth-inning if it's determined that relief work is the best way to keep him healthy down the road. Again, that doesn't seem likely, but the Cardinals have a lot of young pitching depth in the rotation with the 2019 return of Alex Reyes.

Willson Contreras, C, CHC -- It's been a disaster year behind the plate, especially for the top-tier catchers. Buster Posey is considering season-ending hip surgery. Gary Sanchez has been on the DL twice, and Contreras has fallen well short of expectations after carrying an ADP of 50.6 in the NFBC during draft season. The Cubs have frequently hit Contreras seventh or lower since the calendar flipped to August, and his .266/.356/.418 line with nine homers and 41 RBI through 107 games has left many owners in single-catcher formats looking for upgrades with the recent lineup demotion reducing his potential output. In his first two seasons with the Cubs, Contreras had HR/FB marks of 23.5 and 25.9%. He's bottomed out at 9.7% this season, despite hitting fewer groundballs than ever. A closer look at his profile shows a reduced hard-hit rate 30.8% this season(35.5% in 2017), which is particularly troubling when hard-hit rates league wide have ticked up as noted above. I'm interested in watching the news on Contreras after the Cubs' season eventually comes to an end, as it would certainly make sense to find out that he's been playing through an injury in the second half. Through 82 games, Contreras was hitting .279/.369/.449 with seven homers, and over the last 25, he's been stuck in a .221/.309/.314 slump with an inflated strikeout rate (27.8%).

Ozzie Albies, 2B, ATL -- Albies is shaping up to become one of the most difficult players to project and price for 2019. If his age-21 season ended today, it would be an overwhelming success, despite nasty slide in the second half (.250/.278/.317, 60 wRC+). During that span, Albies has homered once, after he went deep 20 times in the first 93 games (432 plate appearances). The balance of power and speed has been very surprising (21 homers, 12 steals), and most owners probably expected a dozen homers with 20-plus steals. After walking 8.6% of the time in his debut in 2017, Albies has walked just 4.1% of the time in 2018. Fortunately, he's keep his strikeout rate low, making a modest jump from 14.8% last season to 16.7% this time around. If nothing else, this is reminder No. 14,252 that young players often go through volatile adjustment periods as the league tries to figure them out. It appears that most projection systems see a more balanced player going forward -- a 20-20 threat with a steady average -- based on what he's done in nearly a season-and-a-half -- but there is still rapid growth potential here given his age.

Gleyber Torres, 2B, NYY -- Like Albies, Torres has run into a slump in the second half of his age-21 season (.202/.287/.326). Also like Albies, he'll eventually work his way out of it, but certainly creates difficult lineup decisions in more shallow formats where more consistently productive players might be available on the waiver wire. Entering play Wednesday, Torres has a .267/.331/.489 line with 18 homers and 53 RBI through 87 games, and his season should be considered a successful one when you account for his age, and that he lost most of 2017 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. With Didi Gregorius on the DL, Torres will continue to get everyday playing time in the coming weeks -- and a healthy Gregorius wouldn't steer Torres to the bench very often anyway since Neil Walker continues to struggle -- and a surge at the plate between now and the end of the September would go a long way increasing confidence in him as a potential Top 100 pick in 2019.

Manuel Margot, OF, SD -- Entering last season, Margot was (seemingly) universally loved by the RotoWire baseball staff. He was primed for a full season as the Padres' primary center fielder and likely leadoff hitter, offering a steady speed base with the potential to develop double-digit home run pop. A late-season power surge in 2017 validated that take, and made Margot a frequent target in the Pick 125-150 range in drafts this spring. Margot has gone more than 100 plate appearances without drawing a walk, delivering a .255/.243/.418 line during that stretch. For the season, he's cut back slightly on strikeouts (17.1% K%), but he's been very inefficient as a base-stealer (10-for-19) while taking an overall step back in the power department. He'll only turn 24 in September, but the discount on Margot will have to be a steep one (Round 20 or later) if I'm going to roster him again in 2019.